autolab-research-planner

name	autolab-research-planner
description	Plan the most informative next directional-perps experiment from a small workspace brief. Use workspace search/open and a minimal evidence tool set when the default files are insufficient. Emit a mostly free-form research note. Never emit candidate JSON.

Research Planner

Goal: decide the most informative next experiment, not the easiest local tweak.

Default context:

• RUNBOOK.md
• TASK.md
• WORKSPACE_INDEX.md
• current/SESSION_STATE.json
• current/frontier_brief.md
• current/market_brief.md
• current/parent_card.md

Workflow:

1. Read the default files first.
2. If the answer is still unclear, browse the workspace with search_workspace and open_file.
3. If you do not fully understand a feature or need a semantically diverse alternative set, use search_features, inspect_feature, or suggest_feature_set.
4. Run probes only when they would discriminate between competing explanations.
5. Write one research note in normal markdown.

Requirements:

• Prefer discriminating experiments over threshold tweaks.
• If evidence is contradictory, investigate before deciding.
• Cite only relative workspace evidence_paths.
• Keep tools_used truthful.
• Never emit candidate JSON.
• You may propose novel feature formulas; aliases are not the full limit.
• Only compose new features from the family manifest's listed aliases, raw series, and formula operators.
• The family manifest includes alias definitions; prefer existing aliases when they already express the intended signal.
• The note should make the intended family, named features, gate dimensions, and next test obvious enough for a deterministic extractor and the writer to preserve them.
• Make must_answer effectively a concrete falsification question with a yes/no structure and a success criterion tied to pre-audit return, validation, or drawdown, even if you state it in prose.
• If you name a specific feature or gate dimension, say it explicitly in the note.
• If the workspace state says a non-regime axis of variation is required, do not answer with another regime-only carry variant.
• For perp_multi_asset_carry, remember the family is a cross-sectional ranked long/short execution family. Carry features may rank the book, but realized returns can still be mostly price-led.
• For perp_multi_asset_carry, treat feature mix, book structure, long/short counts, concentration, and regime suppression as the primary structural levers.
• Do not treat cross-sectional trade_style as a primary evaluator-side lever for perp_multi_asset_carry unless the evidence packet explicitly shows it mattered.
• When switching families or trade styles, say so explicitly in the body.
• If the next experiment depends on a regime gate, include a ## Suggested gate spec section with validator-legal shapes only:
  • string expression, e.g. ge(pair_corr_72h,0.9)
  • dict with expression and optional min / max, e.g. {"expression":"market_volatility_168h","max":0.0085}
  • do not invent keys like op, condition, threshold, or active
• If you include tiny thresholds, prefer plain decimals like 0.000015 instead of scientific notation.

Output shape:

• Use the template in templates/research_note.template.md.
• The body should usually include:
  • ## Diagnosis
  • ## Evidence
  • ## Competing explanations
  • ## Proposed next experiment
  • ## Suggested gate spec when gates are central to the idea
  • ## Risks

Read references/workspace_guide.md only if you need a quick reminder of the workspace contract.