| name | financial-modeling |
| description | Build integrated financial models with 3-statement projections, DCF-ready UFCF bridges, working-capital schedules, and debt/interest linkages. Use for income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and DCF input preparation. Scope is three-statement and DCF-ready modeling; PEG-ready packages are handled by growth-stock-valuation. |
Financial Modeling Skill
Overview
I help you build integrated 3-statement financial models that link Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statement. These models are essential for valuation, budgeting, and strategic planning.
What I can do:
- Build income statement projections
- Create balance sheet forecasts
- Generate cash flow statements
- Model working capital requirements
- Build debt schedules and interest calculations
- Create scenario analysis (base/bull/bear cases)
What I cannot do:
- Access real-time financial data
- Guarantee projection accuracy
- Provide accounting advice
- Replace professional financial analysis
How to Use Me
Step 1: Provide Historical Data
I need 2-3 years of:
- Income statement (revenue, COGS, operating expenses)
- Balance sheet (assets, liabilities, equity)
- Cash flow statement (optional but helpful)
Step 2: Define Projection Assumptions
Key drivers:
- Revenue growth rate
- Gross margin
- Operating expense ratios
- Capex as % of revenue
- Working capital days (DSO, DIO, DPO)
Step 3: Choose Model Scope
- Basic: Income statement only
- Standard: Income statement + balance sheet
- Full: Complete 3-statement model with cash flow
Research Handoff Mode
When the user provides a research handoff such as <company>_dcf_financial_model_handoff.md, use it as the bridge from investment research to modeling:
- Use a single structured financial data source for the three statements by default. Do not pull Tushare, Eastmoney, AkShare, Wencai, and CSV exports in parallel for routine cross-checking. Fallback to another source only when the selected source fails, is inaccessible, lacks required fields, or has an obvious abnormal value.
- Prefer
<company>_facts_core.md and Fact-ID references when available. Do not copy full raw financial statements, announcement lists, Wencai long rows, or Gemini outputs into modeling files.
- If raw CSV files exist, extract only the required narrow fields before reading them into context. Avoid broad text search across
*.csv files because long rows can dominate the context window.
- First parse the driver map, evidence grades, historical anchors, and scenario ranges. Do not re-write the investment thesis unless needed to explain a driver.
- Treat these six tables as the preferred structured input: historical anchor table; segment driver table; expense and depreciation table; working-capital table; scenario table; data-gap table. If a table is missing, list it in the data-gap checklist before modeling.
- Separate company facts, consensus/market assumptions, and self-built assumptions. If a field is missing, show it in a data-gap checklist instead of inventing precision.
- Build assumptions in this order: revenue drivers -> gross margin -> operating expenses -> D&A/capex -> working capital days -> tax/interest/debt -> minority interest/investment income -> dividends/financing.
- For each driver, preserve source/evidence grade and state whether it belongs in base case, scenario case, or sensitivity only.
- Output a DCF-ready UFCF bridge with
EBIT*(1-Tax)+D&A-Capex-ΔNWC, plus model checks for balance sheet balance, revenue-profit-cash consistency, and working-capital reasonableness.
- For formal DCF calculation, output
<company>_dcf_ready_package.md for /Users/a/.codex/skills/dcf-model: Revenue, EBIT, tax rate, D&A, Capex, ΔNWC, UFCF, cash, debt, shares, WACC inputs, terminal assumptions, and source comments.
- PEG-ready input packs belong to
$growth-stock-valuation; this skill outputs DCF-ready packages and UFCF bridges.
- Keep DCF-ready packages compact: model fields, assumptions, source comments, Fact-ID references, quality notes, and data gaps only. Do not restate every module's thesis or duplicate the full profit bridge.
- Output modeling inputs, checks, data gaps, and DCF-ready handoff fields. For DCF valuation, hand off DCF-ready inputs through
$dcf-valuation-workflow to /Users/a/.codex/skills/dcf-model; final valuation conclusions belong to the valuation stage.
Model Architecture
Three-Statement Linkages
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ INCOME STATEMENT │
│ Revenue → Gross Profit → Operating Income → Net Income │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────────────┘
│
Net Income flows to Retained Earnings
│
▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ BALANCE SHEET │
│ Assets = Liabilities + Equity │
│ (Must balance via Cash as plug) │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────────────┘
│
Changes in B/S items drive CF Statement
│
▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ CASH FLOW STATEMENT │
│ Operating CF + Investing CF + Financing CF = Δ Cash │
│ Ending Cash flows back to Balance Sheet │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Key Formulas
Income Statement Drivers
Revenue = Prior Year × (1 + Growth Rate)
COGS = Revenue × (1 - Gross Margin %)
Gross Profit = Revenue - COGS
SG&A = Revenue × SG&A %
EBITDA = Gross Profit - SG&A
D&A = Prior PP&E × D&A Rate OR Revenue × D&A %
EBIT = EBITDA - D&A
Interest = Avg Debt × Interest Rate
EBT = EBIT - Interest
Taxes = EBT × Tax Rate
Net Income = EBT - Taxes
Balance Sheet Drivers
Accounts Receivable = Revenue × (DSO / 365)
Inventory = COGS × (DIO / 365)
Accounts Payable = COGS × (DPO / 365)
PP&E = Prior PP&E + Capex - D&A
Retained Earnings = Prior RE + Net Income - Dividends
Cash = Total Liabilities + Equity - Other Assets (plug)
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow:
Net Income
+ D&A (non-cash)
- Increase in AR
- Increase in Inventory
+ Increase in AP
= Cash from Operations
Investing Cash Flow:
- Capex
= Cash from Investing
Financing Cash Flow:
+ Debt Issuance
- Debt Repayment
- Dividends
= Cash from Financing
Net Change in Cash = CFO + CFI + CFF
Output Format
# Financial Model: [Company Name]
**Projection Period**: [Years]
**Base Year**: [Year]
**Currency**: [USD/CNY/etc.]
---
## Key Assumptions
| Driver | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| Revenue Growth | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |
| Gross Margin | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |
| SG&A % Revenue | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |
| Capex % Revenue | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |
| DSO (days) | XX | XX | XX | XX | XX |
| DIO (days) | XX | XX | XX | XX | XX |
| DPO (days) | XX | XX | XX | XX | XX |
---
## Income Statement Projection
| ($M) | Base | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|------|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| **Revenue** | | | | | | |
| Growth % | | | | | | |
| COGS | | | | | | |
| **Gross Profit** | | | | | | |
| Gross Margin % | | | | | | |
| SG&A | | | | | | |
| **EBITDA** | | | | | | |
| EBITDA Margin % | | | | | | |
| D&A | | | | | | |
| **EBIT** | | | | | | |
| Interest Expense | | | | | | |
| **EBT** | | | | | | |
| Taxes | | | | | | |
| **Net Income** | | | | | | |
| Net Margin % | | | | | | |
---
## Balance Sheet Projection
| ($M) | Base | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|------|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| **ASSETS** | | | | | | |
| Cash | | | | | | |
| Accounts Receivable | | | | | | |
| Inventory | | | | | | |
| **Current Assets** | | | | | | |
| PP&E (net) | | | | | | |
| Other Assets | | | | | | |
| **Total Assets** | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| **LIABILITIES** | | | | | | |
| Accounts Payable | | | | | | |
| Short-term Debt | | | | | | |
| **Current Liabilities** | | | | | | |
| Long-term Debt | | | | | | |
| **Total Liabilities** | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| **EQUITY** | | | | | | |
| Common Stock | | | | | | |
| Retained Earnings | | | | | | |
| **Total Equity** | | | | | | |
| **Total L + E** | | | | | | |
✓ Balance Check: Assets = Liabilities + Equity
---
## Cash Flow Statement
| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| **Operating Activities** | | | | | |
| Net Income | | | | | |
| D&A | | | | | |
| Change in AR | | | | | |
| Change in Inventory | | | | | |
| Change in AP | | | | | |
| **Cash from Operations** | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| **Investing Activities** | | | | | |
| Capex | | | | | |
| **Cash from Investing** | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| **Financing Activities** | | | | | |
| Debt Changes | | | | | |
| Dividends | | | | | |
| **Cash from Financing** | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| **Net Change in Cash** | | | | | |
| Beginning Cash | | | | | |
| **Ending Cash** | | | | | |
---
## Key Metrics Summary
| Metric | Base | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|--------|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| Revenue Growth | | | | | | |
| Gross Margin | | | | | | |
| EBITDA Margin | | | | | | |
| Net Margin | | | | | | |
| ROE | | | | | | |
| Debt/Equity | | | | | | |
| FCF | | | | | | |
Tips for Better Results
- Provide clean historical data in a consistent format
- Be specific about growth drivers (volume vs price, organic vs acquisition)
- Specify industry context for appropriate benchmarks
- Ask for scenario analysis to understand range of outcomes
- Request sensitivity tables for key assumptions
Limitations
- Projections are only as good as the assumptions
- Cannot model complex corporate structures
- Does not account for one-time items automatically
- Simplified tax calculations
- Currency assumed constant (no FX modeling)
Built by the Claude Office Skills community. Contributions welcome!
