falsify

name	falsify
description	Adversarial falsification of sigint research findings. Generates disconfirming queries, executes web-only adversarial search, assigns ordinal verdicts (falsified | weakened | survived | inconclusive), and applies remediation (quarantine, confidence downgrade, follow-up queue). Invocable standalone via `/sigint:falsify` or as Phase 3.6 gate inside the research-orchestrator before report finalization. Use when the user invokes /sigint:falsify.
argument-hint	[--scope all|dimension:<dim>|finding:<id>] [--query-budget <n>] [--claim-budget <n>] [--mode block|advisory]
allowed-tools	["Agent","AskUserQuestion","Bash","Glob","Grep","Read","SendMessage","TaskCreate","TaskGet","TaskList","TaskUpdate","TeamCreate","TeamDelete","Write"]

Sigint Falsify Skill (Adversarial Assessment + Remediation)

You are the team lead orchestrating adversarial falsification of research findings. You spawn the falsification-analyst as a persistent teammate, wait for verdict output, then apply remediation — quarantine, confidence downgrade, follow-up queue — atomically before cleaning up.

MANDATORY SWARM ORCHESTRATION

You MUST use the full swarm pattern: TeamCreate → TaskCreate → Agent(team_name) → SendMessage → TeamDelete. Do NOT spawn standalone agents.

Structured Data Protocol: All JSON file operations MUST follow protocols/STRUCTURED-DATA.md. Use jq for I/O and validate every write with the corresponding schemas/*.jq file.

One-Round Rule: A finding that already carries provenance.falsification_attempts from the current session is skipped. Do not falsify falsifications.

---

Phase 0: Parse Arguments and Initialize

Step 0.1: Parse Arguments

Input sanitization: truncate $ARGUMENTS to 200 characters total, strip backticks and angle brackets.

• --scope → default all. Valid: all, dimension:<dim> (where <dim> is one of competitive|sizing|trends|customer|tech|financial|regulatory|trend_modeling), finding:<id> (where <id> matches f_[a-z_]+_[0-9]+). Invalid → error and stop.
• --query-budget → default 6. Integer 1–10. Out of range → clamp and warn.
• --claim-budget → default 50. Integer 1–500. Out of range → clamp and warn.
• --mode → default block. One of block (any falsified verdict halts downstream phases) or advisory (all verdicts are annotation only). Invalid → error and stop.

Step 0.2: Find Active Research Session

Scan ./reports/*/state.json for sessions with status in {"active", "complete"}. Pick most recently updated. Extract topic, topic_slug, elicitation.

If no session found, error: "No research session found. Run /sigint:start <topic> first."

Resolve reports_dir from config (REQUIRED — do not hardcode paths):

REPORTS_DIR=$(jq -r --arg slug "$TOPIC_SLUG" '.topics[$slug].reports_dir // "./reports/\($slug)"' sigint.config.json 2>/dev/null || echo "./reports/$TOPIC_SLUG")

All subsequent paths use {reports_dir}.

Step 0.3: Validate Working Set Size

Compute claims-to-evaluate based on --scope:

case "$SCOPE" in
  all) COUNT=$(jq '[.findings[]] | length' "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json") ;;
  dimension:*) DIM="${SCOPE#dimension:}"; COUNT=$(jq --arg d "$DIM" '[.findings[] | select(.dimension == $d)] | length' "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json") ;;
  finding:*) COUNT=1 ;;
esac

If COUNT > CLAIM_BUDGET, halt and present:

AskUserQuestion(
  question: "Working set has {COUNT} findings; claim budget is {CLAIM_BUDGET}. Each finding produces 1–3 atomic claims. Estimated upper-bound claims: {COUNT*3}. Proceed?",
  options: ["Increase claim budget to {COUNT*3}", "Narrow scope", "Cancel"]
)

Do NOT silently truncate.

Step 0.4: Initialize Swarm

TeamCreate(name: "sigint-{topic_slug}-falsify")

TaskCreate({
  subject: "Falsify findings: scope={scope}, budget={query_budget}q × {claim_budget}c",
  owner: "falsification-analyst",
  description: "Adversarial falsification of research findings"
})

Note returned task ID as {falsifyTaskId}.

---

Phase 1: Spawn Falsification-Analyst

Agent(
  subagent_type: "sigint:falsification-analyst",
  team_name: "sigint-{topic_slug}-falsify",
  name: "falsification-analyst",
  run_in_background: true,
  prompt: """
    Task Discovery Protocol:
    1. TaskList → find tasks assigned to you (owner: "falsification-analyst")
    2. TaskGet → read full task description
    3. Work on the task following your agent definition (Steps 1–8)
    4. When done:
       a. TaskUpdate(taskId, status: "completed")
       b. SendMessage(to: "team-lead", message: {...}, summary: "Falsification complete: ...")
    5. NEVER commit via git
    6. Use ONLY WebSearch/WebFetch for evidence — no internal memory, no prior findings as evidence

    PARAMETERS:
    - TOPIC_SLUG: {topic_slug}
    - REPORTS_DIR: {reports_dir}
    - SCOPE: {scope}
    - QUERY_BUDGET: {query_budget}
    - CLAIM_BUDGET: {claim_budget}
    - taskId: {falsifyTaskId}

    Follow your agent definition Steps 1–8. Output files (date = today UTC, ISO YYYY-MM-DD):
    - {reports_dir}/falsification_attempts_{scope_tag}.json
    - {reports_dir}/YYYY-MM-DD-falsification-report.json (validates schemas/falsification-report.jq)
    - {reports_dir}/YYYY-MM-DD-falsification-report.md
  """
)

SendMessage(
  to: "falsification-analyst",
  message: "Task #{falsifyTaskId} assigned. Start now.",
  summary: "Falsification task assigned"
)

---

Phase 2: Receive Verdicts

Wait for SendMessage from falsification-analyst containing:

• files — list of generated file paths
• verdicts — {falsified, weakened, survived, inconclusive} counts
• blocking — boolean (true if any falsified)
• remediation_queue_size — int

Timeout: If no response within 240 seconds (web search is slow), send a status check. After an additional 120 seconds with no response, surface partial output and abort with cleanup.

Validate each reported file exists. If the report JSON is missing, abort and inform the user.

---

Phase 3: Apply Remediation (Mandatory)

Adversarial assessment without remediation is out of scope. For every falsified and weakened claim, apply concrete corrective actions to the active session state.

Step 3.1: Load the Falsification Report

REPORT="$REPORTS_DIR/$(date -u +%Y-%m-%d)-falsification-report.json"
ATTEMPTS="$REPORTS_DIR/falsification_attempts_${SCOPE_TAG}.json"

Step 3.2: Merge falsification_attempts into state.json Findings

For every finding referenced in the attempts file, patch its provenance.falsification_attempts array (append, do not replace prior rounds):

jq --slurpfile attempts "$ATTEMPTS" '
  .findings |= map(
    . as $f |
    ($attempts[0].claims | map(select(.claim_id | startswith($f.id + "_c")))) as $matched |
    if ($matched | length) > 0 then
      .provenance.falsification_attempts = ((.provenance.falsification_attempts // []) + [{
        attempted_at: $attempts[0].attempted_at,
        scope: $attempts[0].scope,
        claims: $matched
      }])
    else . end
  )
' "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json" > tmp.$$ && mv tmp.$$ "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json"
jq -e -f schemas/state.jq "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json" > /dev/null

Step 3.3: Apply Verdict Actions per Finding

For each finding in report.by_finding, take action based on worst_verdict:

falsified → quarantine

1. Remove finding from active findings[] in state.json.
2. Append to quarantine.json with gate: "post-falsification":

QUARANTINE_ITEM=$(jq -n \
  --arg fid "$FINDING_ID" \
  --arg dim "$DIMENSION" \
  --arg reason "$VERDICT_BASIS" \
  --arg ts "$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)" \
  --argjson original "$ORIGINAL_FINDING" \
  '{finding_id: $fid, original_dimension: $dim, reason: $reason, gate: "post-falsification", gate_timestamp: $ts, original_finding: $original}')

if [ -f "$REPORTS_DIR/quarantine.json" ]; then
  jq --argjson item "$QUARANTINE_ITEM" '.items += [$item]' \
    "$REPORTS_DIR/quarantine.json" > tmp.$$ && mv tmp.$$ "$REPORTS_DIR/quarantine.json"
else
  jq -n --arg date "$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)" --argjson item "$QUARANTINE_ITEM" \
    '{quarantined_at: $date, items: [$item]}' > "$REPORTS_DIR/quarantine.json"
fi
jq -e -f schemas/quarantine.jq "$REPORTS_DIR/quarantine.json" > /dev/null

weakened → narrow + downgrade confidence

1. Append disconfirming sources to the finding's provenance.sources (mark relation in source object, set alive: true).
2. Downgrade confidence one level: high → medium, medium → low, low → quarantine (treat as falsified).
3. Narrow summary text by appending a qualifier: " — qualified by disconfirming evidence (see falsification report)." Do NOT rewrite the original claim.
4. Set requires_issue_followup: true when the original finding had high impact: original confidence == "high" OR market_dynamic is set. These are the findings whose weakening most likely affects downstream recommendations.

# $ORIGINAL_CONF = the finding's confidence BEFORE downgrade (read prior to mutation)
# $HAS_MARKET_DYNAMIC = "true" if .market_dynamic is non-null/non-empty, else "false"
jq --arg fid "$FINDING_ID" \
   --argjson new_sources "$DISCONFIRMING_SOURCES_JSON" \
   --arg new_conf "$DOWNGRADED" \
   --arg orig_conf "$ORIGINAL_CONF" \
   --argjson has_md "$HAS_MARKET_DYNAMIC" \
   '.findings |= map(
     if .id == $fid then
       .provenance.sources = (.provenance.sources + $new_sources) |
       .confidence = $new_conf |
       .summary = (.summary + " — qualified by disconfirming evidence (see falsification report).") |
       .requires_issue_followup = (($orig_conf == "high") or $has_md)
     else . end
   )' "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json" > tmp.$$ && mv tmp.$$ "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json"
jq -e -f schemas/state.jq "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json" > /dev/null

survived (with upgrade signal) → optional confidence upgrade

If confidence_delta == "upgrade_one_level" AND ≥2 queries returned credible non-disconfirming results: upgrade confidence one level (low → medium, medium → high). Otherwise leave unchanged. Annotate falsification_attempts only.

inconclusive → annotate only

No state change beyond the falsification_attempts annotation already merged in Step 3.2.

Step 3.4: Build Follow-up Queue

Write $REPORTS_DIR/$(date -u +%Y-%m-%d)-falsification-followups.json (date-prefixed to avoid clobbering when the gate runs more than once per session — e.g., during /sigint:augment after an initial run). Listing findings that need new or updated GitHub issues:

{
  "generated_at": "{ISO_DATE}",
  "items": [
    {"finding_id": "...", "action": "open_issue", "reason": "Falsified — original recommendation no longer supported. Open retraction issue.", "disconfirming_sources": ["url1"]},
    {"finding_id": "...", "action": "comment_issue", "reason": "Weakened — comment on existing issue with new evidence.", "disconfirming_sources": ["url2"]}
  ]
}

The next /sigint:issues invocation reads this file (alongside state.findings) to decide which issues to open or comment on. Do not invoke /sigint:issues from within this skill — orchestration coupling will break on retries.

Validate against schemas/falsification-followups.jq:

jq -e -f schemas/falsification-followups.jq "$REPORTS_DIR/$(date -u +%Y-%m-%d)-falsification-followups.json" > /dev/null

Step 3.5: Append Lineage Entry

DIMENSIONS_JSON=$(jq -c '[.findings[].dimension] | unique' "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json")
FINDING_COUNT=$(jq '.findings | length' "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json")

LINEAGE=$(jq -n \
  --arg session "$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)" \
  --arg scope "$SCOPE" \
  --argjson dims "$DIMENSIONS_JSON" \
  --argjson count "$FINDING_COUNT" \
  --argjson verdicts "$VERDICTS_JSON" \
  --argjson falsified "$FALSIFIED_COUNT" \
  --argjson weakened "$WEAKENED_COUNT" \
  '{session_id: $session, action: "falsification", dimensions: $dims, finding_count: $count, scope: $scope, verdicts: $verdicts, falsified_count: $falsified, weakened_count: $weakened}')

jq --argjson entry "$LINEAGE" '.lineage += [$entry] | .last_updated = "'"$(date -u +%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ)"'"' \
  "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json" > tmp.$$ && mv tmp.$$ "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json"
jq -e -f schemas/state.jq "$REPORTS_DIR/state.json" > /dev/null

Step 3.6: Append to Research Progress

Append to $REPORTS_DIR/research-progress.md:

## {ISO_DATE} — Falsification Gate
- Scope: {scope}
- Claims evaluated: {N}
- Queries executed: {N} (budget: {QUERY_BUDGET}/claim)
- Verdicts: falsified={N}, weakened={N}, survived={N}, inconclusive={N}
- Remediation: {N} quarantined, {N} downgraded, {N} annotated
- Mode: {block|advisory}
- Gate state: {pass|fail}
- Followups queued: {N} (see falsification-followups.json)
- Epistemic caveat: survived = {N} queries/claim adversarially executed without disconfirmation; not a proof of truth.

---

Phase 4: Gate Decision

If --mode = block AND verdicts.falsified > 0:

• Set gate state to fail
• Surface a blocking message:

Falsification gate FAILED.

{N} finding(s) were falsified. Quarantined entries:
  - {finding_id}: {one-line basis}
  ...

Downstream phases (report generation, issue creation) should not proceed
until the underlying research is updated. Recommended next step:
  /sigint:augment {affected_dimension} — re-research with adversarial findings in mind.

Falsification report: {report.md}
Quarantined items: {quarantine.json}

If --mode = advisory OR no falsified verdicts:

• Set gate state to pass
• Present summary:

Falsification gate PASSED ({mode}).

Verdicts: falsified={N}, weakened={N}, survived={N}, inconclusive={N}
Remediation applied: {N} quarantined, {N} downgraded, {N} annotated.

Files:
  - {report.md}
  - {report.json}
  - {falsification-followups.json}
  ({N} items queued for /sigint:issues)

Next steps:
  - /sigint:report — generate report (falsification verdicts are now reflected in state.json)
  - /sigint:issues — apply followup queue

---

Phase 5: Cleanup

Always run cleanup, even on errors in earlier phases:

SendMessage(to: "falsification-analyst", message: {type: "shutdown_request", reason: "Falsification complete"})
TeamDelete("sigint-{topic_slug}-falsify")

If TeamDelete fails (already cleaned up), log silently — the verdicts and remediation are already persisted.

---

Integration Notes

• Orchestrator gate: agents/research-orchestrator.md invokes this skill as Phase 3.6 between post-merge codex review and progress rendering. The orchestrator passes --mode block by default; users can override via /sigint:falsify --mode advisory for standalone runs.
• Issue followups: /sigint:issues reads falsification-followups.json if present and processes alongside state.findings. The requires_issue_followup flag on findings supplements the followups file.
• Report integration: /sigint:report reads provenance.falsification_attempts and the latest *-falsification-report.json to surface verdict roll-ups in an "Adversarial Assessment" section.
• Codex review compatibility: Falsification answers a different question than codex review (codex: are sources real?; falsify: are claims defeasible?). Both gates coexist — falsification runs after codex review.