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dividend-analysis
// Dividend stock analysis for income, dividend-growth, and shareholder-return strategies, including yield quality, payout sustainability, ex-dividend mechanics, and yield-trap checks.
// Dividend stock analysis for income, dividend-growth, and shareholder-return strategies, including yield quality, payout sustainability, ex-dividend mechanics, and yield-trap checks.
Professional finance research toolkit — backtesting (7 engines + benchmark comparison panel), factor analysis, Alpha Zoo (452 pre-built alphas across qlib158/alpha101/gtja191/academic), options pricing, 75 finance skills, 29 multi-agent swarm teams, Trade Journal analyzer, and Shadow Account (extract → backtest → render) across 6 data sources (tushare, yfinance, okx, akshare, ccxt, futu).
Browse and bench the bundled alpha zoos — prebuilt cross-sectional factor libraries (Kakushadze 101, GTJA 191, Qlib 158, Fama-French / Carhart). Use when the user asks "which alphas exist", wants metadata on a named alpha, or wants to run IC/IR on a whole zoo over a universe.
Factor research framework with IC/IR analysis, quantile backtesting, and factor combination. Suitable for cross-sectional factor evaluation across multiple instruments.
Multi-factor cross-sectional stock ranking. Combines factor standardization, equal-weight or IC-weighted scoring, and TopN portfolio construction. Suitable for multi-instrument portfolio strategies.
Read web pages, articles, and document links by converting URLs into Markdown text. Use the `read_url` tool directly, without bash. Sends the full URL to the third-party Jina Reader (r.jina.ai).
Fundamental factor screening — filter stocks by PE/PB/ROE, financial statement fields, and other metrics for value or growth selection. Supports A-shares (via tushare extra_fields or fundamental_fields) and HK/US stocks (via yfinance Ticker info).
| name | dividend-analysis |
| description | Dividend stock analysis for income, dividend-growth, and shareholder-return strategies, including yield quality, payout sustainability, ex-dividend mechanics, and yield-trap checks. |
| category | analysis |
Use this skill when the user asks about dividend stocks, income portfolios, dividend growth, high-yield screening, payout safety, ex-dividend dates, or whether a dividend is sustainable. The goal is to separate durable shareholder returns from yield traps.
Dividend analysis should never stop at headline yield. A good answer explains how the dividend is funded, how stable the underlying business is, whether management has room to keep paying, and how valuation changes the expected total return.
| Metric | Formula | Healthy Signal | Warning Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend yield | annual DPS / current price | Above peer median with stable coverage | Extremely high vs history or peers |
| Earnings payout ratio | dividends / net income, or DPS / EPS | 30-70% for mature non-financials | Above 90%, negative earnings |
| Free-cash-flow payout | dividends / FCF | Below 70% through a cycle | Dividend exceeds FCF for 2+ years |
| CFO coverage | operating cash flow / dividends paid | Above 1.5x | Below 1.0x |
| Dividend CAGR | DPS growth over 3/5/10 years | Positive and below EPS/FCF growth | Growth funded by leverage |
| Net debt / EBITDA | net debt / EBITDA | Sector-appropriate leverage | Leverage rising while payout rises |
| Buyback plus dividend yield | (dividends + net buybacks) / market cap | Balanced capital return | Buybacks funded by debt at high valuation |
For REITs, utilities, banks, MLPs, and insurers, adapt the payout metric to the sector. For example, use AFFO payout for REITs, distributable cash flow for MLPs, and regulatory capital ratios for banks and insurers.
annual_dividend = regular_dividend_per_period * payments_per_year
dividend_yield = annual_dividend / current_price
Start with earnings coverage, then confirm with cash coverage.
earnings_payout = dividends_paid / net_income
fcf_payout = dividends_paid / free_cash_flow
cfo_coverage = operating_cash_flow / dividends_paid
Interpretation:
Dividend growth is high quality when it follows business growth.
dividend_cagr = (dps_end / dps_start) ** (1 / years) - 1
eps_cagr = (eps_end / eps_start) ** (1 / years) - 1
fcf_cagr = (fcf_end / fcf_start) ** (1 / years) - 1
Quality rules:
Look for the ability to maintain dividends during stress.
| Item | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments | Near-term cushion |
| Net debt / EBITDA | Debt burden against operating earnings |
| Interest coverage | Ability to service debt before shareholder returns |
| Debt maturity wall | Refinancing risk in high-rate environments |
| Credit rating or covenant language | External constraints on payout policy |
Dividend stocks can underperform if the yield comes from a falling price. Always connect income to valuation and growth.
expected_total_return = dividend_yield + expected_eps_growth + valuation_rerating
Do not present this as a guarantee. Use it as a scenario framework.
Flag a potential yield trap when several of these are true:
Prioritize moderate yield, strong dividend CAGR, low payout ratio, and durable business quality.
Good for users seeking compounding and lower cut risk.
Prioritize yield, but require cash coverage, balance sheet resilience, and sector-aware payout norms.
Good for users seeking current income, but the answer must discuss cut risk.
Combine dividends, net buybacks, and debt reduction.
Useful when companies return capital mostly through buybacks rather than cash dividends.
shareholder_yield = dividend_yield + net_buyback_yield + debt_paydown_yield
Buying before the ex-dividend date only to collect the dividend is not a free-money strategy. Prices usually adjust around the ex-dividend date, and taxes, spreads, and slippage can erase the gross dividend.
Use this only as an event-risk analysis, not as a default recommendation.
| Market | Useful Fields |
|---|---|
| A-shares | Tushare dividend, daily_basic.dv_ttm, fina_indicator, cashflow |
| US/HK | yfinance Ticker.dividends, Ticker.info, financial statements, cash flow |
| ETFs | distribution yield, SEC yield, holdings yield, expense ratio, distribution history |
| REITs | FFO, AFFO, occupancy, debt maturities, AFFO payout |
When live data is unavailable, state the limitation and provide the analysis template instead of inventing dividend figures.
### Dividend Analysis: [ticker/company]
**Verdict:** [sustainable / watchlist / yield-trap risk]
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|--------|-------|----------------|
| Dividend yield | ... | ... |
| Earnings payout | ... | ... |
| FCF payout | ... | ... |
| Dividend growth | ... | ... |
| Balance sheet | ... | ... |
**What supports the dividend**
- ...
**What could break the dividend**
- ...
**Scenario view**
- Base: ...
- Downside: ...
- Upside: ...
**Research note:** This is investment research, not live trading advice.