| name | market-sizer-data |
| description | This skill sizes the addressable market using quantitative data sources and modelling. Use when asked to estimate TAM/SAM/SOM, validate market opportunity, or quantify segment size. Also consider when a business case requires market size justification. Suggest when a new product idea lacks demand-side quantification.
|
| department | data-growth |
| agent | analytics-lead |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| complexity | medium |
| related-skills | ["search-demand-validator","market-sizer"] |
| triggers | ["size the market","market sizing analysis","TAM SAM SOM estimate","calculate market opportunity","addressable market sizing"] |
market-sizer-data
Agent: Analytics Lead
L1 analytics leader (1x) responsible for search demand validation, market sizing, goal framing, instrumentation strategy, and north star metric governance.
Department ethos: ideal-data-growth.md
Skill Description
The market sizer quantifies the total addressable market (TAM), serviceable addressable market (SAM), and serviceable obtainable market (SOM) using bottom-up data models, search demand signals, and public data sources to validate whether a product opportunity justifies investment.
When to Use
- When a new product concept needs market size validation before entering the build phase.
- When investors or leadership request a data-backed market sizing for a pitch or business case.
- When the growth team needs segment-level sizing to prioritize acquisition channels.
- When a pivot or expansion into an adjacent market requires re-sizing the opportunity.
Workflow
- Define the market boundary: Specify the product category, geography, customer segment, and time horizon. Document inclusion and exclusion criteria.
- Gather data sources: Collect search volume data, industry reports, census data, competitor revenue proxies, and any internal usage data. Note the recency and reliability of each source.
- Build bottom-up model: Estimate the number of potential customers in the segment, the expected adoption rate, and the average revenue per user (ARPU). Multiply to produce SAM and SOM.
- Build top-down cross-check: Use industry revenue data or analyst reports to estimate TAM. Compare top-down and bottom-up figures; investigate divergences greater than 2x.
- Sensitivity analysis: Vary key assumptions (adoption rate, ARPU, segment size) across low/mid/high scenarios. Present the range rather than a single point estimate.
- Document and present: Produce a market sizing brief with methodology, data sources, assumptions, scenario outputs, and confidence level.
Anti-Patterns
- Single-source sizing: Relying on one analyst report or one data source produces fragile estimates. Why: any single source may have sampling bias, outdated figures, or different market definitions.
- TAM as the pitch number: Presenting TAM instead of SOM inflates the opportunity and misleads stakeholders. Why: TAM includes segments the product cannot realistically reach; SOM is the actionable figure.
- Point estimates without ranges: Delivering a single market size number hides the uncertainty inherent in every assumption. Why: decision-makers need to understand the downside scenario, not just the midpoint.
- Ignoring willingness to pay: Sizing by headcount without validating price sensitivity overstates revenue potential. Why: a large addressable population at zero willingness to pay is not a market.
Output
Success:
- A market sizing brief containing TAM, SAM, and SOM with methodology, data sources, assumption log, sensitivity analysis across three scenarios, and a confidence rating.
Failure:
- Market sizing relies on a single source or uses TAM as the primary figure. Report the data gap, recommend additional sources, and flag which assumptions need validation.
Related Skills
search-demand-validator -- search demand data is a key input to bottom-up market sizing.market-sizer -- the product manager's market sizer focuses on opportunity framing; this skill provides the quantitative backing.
