| name | trade-hypothesis-ideator |
| description | Generate falsifiable trade strategy hypotheses from market data, trade logs, and journal snippets. Use when you have a structured input bundle and want ranked hypothesis cards with experiment designs, kill criteria, and optional strategy.yaml export compatible with edge-finder-candidate/v1.
|
Trade Hypothesis Ideator
Generate 1-5 structured hypothesis cards from a normalized input bundle, critique and rank them, then optionally export pursue cards into strategy.yaml + metadata.json artifacts.
When to Use
- After gathering trade logs, journal entries, or market observations that suggest a potential edge
- When you have a structured input bundle (JSON) with evidence snippets and want falsifiable hypotheses
- To bridge qualitative observations into quantitative experiment designs
- Before committing capital to validate a new strategy idea with kill criteria
Prerequisites
- Input JSON bundle with one or more of:
trade_log, journal_snippets, market_data, observations
- Python 3.9+ with
pyyaml installed
- No external API keys required (pure calculation skill)
Workflow
- Receive input JSON bundle.
- Run pass 1 normalization + evidence extraction.
- Generate hypotheses with prompts:
prompts/system_prompt.md
prompts/developer_prompt_template.md (inject {{evidence_summary}})
- Critique hypotheses with
prompts/critique_prompt_template.md.
- Run pass 2 ranking + output formatting + guardrails.
- Optionally export
pursue hypotheses via Step H strategy exporter.
Scripts
- Pass 1 (evidence summary):
python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
--input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
--output-dir reports/
- Pass 2 (rank + output + optional export):
python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
--input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
--hypotheses reports/raw_hypotheses.json \
--output-dir reports/ \
--export-strategies
Output
hypothesis_cards_<date>.json — Ranked hypothesis cards with verdicts (pursue, revise, discard)
hypothesis_cards_<date>.md — Human-readable summary with experiment designs and kill criteria
strategy_<hypothesis_id>.yaml — (Optional) Edge-finder-compatible strategy export for pursue cards
metadata_<hypothesis_id>.json — (Optional) Provenance metadata for exported strategies
Resources
references/hypothesis_types.md — Taxonomy of hypothesis patterns (mean-reversion, momentum, event-driven, etc.)
references/evidence_quality_guide.md — Criteria for rating evidence strength and sample size requirements