| name | pre-mortem |
| description | Runs a structured pre-mortem on a PRD or launch plan, categorizing risks as Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants, with launch-blocking action plans. Use before any significant product launch or execution milestone. Triggers on: pre-mortem, risk analysis, launch readiness, what could go wrong, launch risks, risk mitigation, launch blockers, stress-test plan. |
Pre-Mortem
Core Philosophy
A pre-mortem assumes failure and works backward. Instead of asking "what could go wrong?", you ask "it's 3 months post-launch and it failed — what happened?"
This framing bypasses optimism bias and social pressure. People who would never say "I think this will fail" in a planning meeting will freely describe how it failed after the fact. The pre-mortem is a structured permission structure to surface what everyone suspects but nobody says.
When to Use
- Before any significant product launch or feature release
- After a PRD is written but before engineering begins — while it's still cheap to change
- Before a major business decision (pricing change, market entry, partnership)
- When a plan feels too clean and assumptions haven't been challenged
Workflow
1. Read the PRD or Launch Plan
Understand the product, the assumptions, the timeline, the success criteria, and the key dependencies. If a PRD doesn't exist, create a one-page summary of the plan first.
2. Assume Failure
Set the frame: "It is 14 weeks from now. The launch happened. It failed. Revenue is below target, adoption is low, or a critical defect was found in production. What went wrong?"
Generate a list of failure modes. Do not filter at this stage — capture everything.
3. Categorize Risks
Tigers — Real problems you personally see that could derail the project
- Based on evidence, past experience, or clear logic
- Require action before launch
- These should keep you awake at night
