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Portfolio revenue-retention analysis — NRR, GRR, churn, at-risk renewals, expansion rate. Trigger: 'NRR', 'churn rate', 'renewal portfolio', 'logo retention'. Single account = renewal-playbook.
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| name | retention-rollup |
| description | Portfolio revenue-retention analysis — NRR, GRR, churn, at-risk renewals, expansion rate. Trigger: 'NRR', 'churn rate', 'renewal portfolio', 'logo retention'. Single account = renewal-playbook. |
| origin | ESCC |
Portfolio-level NRR, GRR, churn, and at-risk renewal analysis across the AE-owned renewal and expansion book. This skill OWNS the NRR/GRR/churn definitions -- other skills cite these definitions and point here.
Canonical owner: this skill defines Net Revenue Retention (NRR), Gross Revenue Retention (GRR), gross churn, net churn, and expansion rate. All other skills that reference these metrics cite retention-rollup and use these exact definitions.
Governing rules and related skills:
rules/common/forecasting-definitions.md-- forecast categories for renewal pipeline (Commit / Best case / Pipeline / Omitted/Closed). Use exact names.renewal-playbook-- the single-account renewal health-check skill. retention-rollup is the PORTFOLIO view (many accounts, aggregate metrics); renewal-playbook is the ACCOUNT view (one account, detailed health-check). These are distinct and complementary. Cross-reference; never merge.Scope note (AE-owned): retention here is the AE-owned renewal and expansion portfolio view. CS/post-sale tooling is an explicit product cut (Amendment A.1) -- this skill is NOT a CS tool. It reports the revenue health of the accounts the AE team owns and renews.
Execution: the
pipeline-auditoragent reads the renewal opportunities and contract records from HubSpot (read-only);metrics-analystcomputes NRR/GRR/churn from that tool-result. It does NOT query HubSpot directly. Any CRM write (e.g., tagging an account as at-risk) routes throughcrm-operatoronly.
Activate this skill when:
/retention command is invoked.Do not use this skill to:
renewal-playbook).deal-review).sales-reporting Mode 2).NRR measures how much of the starting-period ARR is retained and grown through renewals, expansions, and upsells, after accounting for downgrades and churn.
NRR = (Starting ARR + Expansion ARR - Downgrade ARR - Churned ARR) /
Starting ARR
NRR > 100%: the existing customer base is growing even without new logos. NRR = 100%: all churn and downgrades are exactly offset by expansions. NRR < 100%: the base is shrinking from the existing customer cohort.
GRR measures how much starting ARR is retained after churn and downgrades, without counting expansions. GRR is always <= 100%.
GRR = (Starting ARR - Downgrade ARR - Churned ARR) / Starting ARR
GRR isolates the "keep what we have" signal, independent of upsell performance. Compare NRR and GRR together: a large NRR-GRR gap means the business is masking churn with expansion -- expansion is hiding a retention problem.
Gross churn rate = Churned ARR / Starting ARR
The percentage of starting ARR lost to cancellations and non-renewals in the period. Does not offset for expansion.
Net churn rate = (Churned ARR - Expansion ARR) / Starting ARR
Net churn rate can be negative (net negative churn) when expansion exceeds gross churn. Negative net churn is a strong signal that the customer base is self-sustaining.
Logo retention = (Starting customers - Churned customers) /
Starting customers
Counts customers, not dollars. A high logo retention with low GRR signals that small customers are being retained but large ones are churning (dollar- weighted churn is more severe than logo churn implies).
Expansion rate = Expansion ARR / Starting ARR
The fraction of starting ARR added back as expansion. NRR - GRR = expansion rate contribution.
Confirm:
rules/segments/*), or a named rep's book.The pipeline-auditor agent reads the renewal opportunities and contract
records from HubSpot (read-only); metrics-analyst computes NRR/GRR/churn
from that tool-result for the cohort:
Apply the definitions above. Compute:
Flag if NRR and GRR diverge materially (>10pp gap): this signals that expansions are masking a churn problem.
Pull all renewal opportunities due in the forward period (next 30, 60, 90 days by default -- confirm horizon with the requestor).
For each renewal opportunity, the pipeline-auditor agent retrieves from
HubSpot; metrics-analyst analyzes the result:
rules/common/forecasting-definitions.md).Segment the at-risk portfolio:
Compute at-risk ARR exposure: total ACV of high-risk and medium-risk renewals.
Return:
Portfolio NRR/GRR, trailing 12 months:
Request: "What is our NRR and GRR for the trailing 12 months, all segments?"
metrics-analyst rollup (from pipeline-auditor tool-result):
Cohort: All accounts | Period: Q3 2025 -- Q2 2026 (trailing 12 months)
ARR components:
Starting ARR: $8,200,000
Expansion ARR: $1,640,000
Downgrade ARR: $ 180,000
Churned ARR: $ 820,000
Metrics:
NRR: ($8,200,000 + $1,640,000 - $180,000 - $820,000) / $8,200,000
= $8,840,000 / $8,200,000 = 107.8%
GRR: ($8,200,000 - $180,000 - $820,000) / $8,200,000
= $7,200,000 / $8,200,000 = 87.8%
Gross churn rate: $820,000 / $8,200,000 = 10.0%
Net churn rate: ($820,000 - $1,640,000) / $8,200,000 = -10.0%
(net negative churn -- expansion exceeds gross churn)
Logo retention: 142 starting / 14 churned = 90.1%
Expansion rate: $1,640,000 / $8,200,000 = 20.0%
NRR vs. GRR gap: 107.8% - 87.8% = 20.0pp
FLAG: Gap exceeds 10pp. Expansion is significantly offsetting churn.
GRR at 87.8% means 12.2% of starting ARR was lost to churn/downgrades
before expansion is counted. While NRR is healthy, the underlying
churn rate warrants attention -- the expansion engine must remain strong
to sustain NRR above 100%.
Gross churn rate 10.0% -- monitor by segment to identify if churn is
concentrated (run segment-level breakdown if needed).
At-risk renewal portfolio, next 60 days:
Request: "Show me the at-risk renewal portfolio for the next 60 days."
metrics-analyst rollup (from pipeline-auditor tool-result, accounts due within 60 days):
Note: Health labels (Green / Amber / Red) here are the `renewal-playbook`
account-health scale -- not the MEDDPICC deal-scoring rubric.
Account | ACV | Renewal | Forecast | Last eng. | Health
-----------------|----------|------------|------------|------------|-------
Example Co Corp | $210,000 | 2026-07-05 | Pipeline | 2026-05-12 | Unreviewed
BetaInc | $ 88,000 | 2026-07-14 | Commit | 2026-06-28 | Green (renewal-playbook run 2026-06-20)
GammaCorp | $145,000 | 2026-07-22 | Best case | 2026-06-01 | Unreviewed
DeltaSys | $ 62,000 | 2026-08-03 | Best case | 2026-06-15 | Amber (renewal-playbook run 2026-06-10)
EpsilonLtd | $ 38,000 | 2026-08-18 | Commit | 2026-06-25 | Green (renewal-playbook run 2026-06-18)
Risk segmentation:
HIGH RISK (renewal <30 days, Pipeline or unreviewed):
Example Co Corp: $210,000 -- renewal 2026-07-05, forecast Pipeline,
last engaged 2026-05-12 (35 days ago), no renewal-playbook run.
ACTION: run renewal-playbook health-check immediately; 19 days to
renewal.
MEDIUM RISK (30-60 days, Best case or engagement gaps):
GammaCorp: $145,000 -- renewal 2026-07-22, forecast Best case,
last engaged 2026-06-01 (15 days ago), no renewal-playbook run.
ACTION: run renewal-playbook and re-engage within 5 days.
DeltaSys: $62,000 -- renewal-playbook run; Amber health signal.
ACTION: escalate to manager if health does not improve by 2026-07-10.
LOW RISK (60+ days, Commit, recent engagement):
BetaInc: $88,000 -- Commit, recent engagement, Green health.
EpsilonLtd: $38,000 -- Commit, recent engagement, Green health.
At-risk ARR exposure (High + Medium): $210,000 + $145,000 + $62,000 = $417,000
Segment-level NRR breakdown:
Request: "Break NRR down by segment."
Enterprise NRR: 112% -- expansion is strong; 2 churn events ($180k)
Mid-market NRR: 104% -- modest expansion; higher churn count (6 logos, $220k)
SMB NRR: 91% -- churn exceeds expansion; logo churn at 18% (GRR: 84%)
Insight: SMB is the primary churn risk. NRR below 100% means the SMB base is
shrinking without new logo additions. Mid-market expansion is absorbing the
drag at the portfolio level. Recommended action: review SMB at-risk portfolio
and confirm renewal-playbook is being run for all SMB accounts renewing in
the next 90 days.
retention-rollup and renewal-playbook are complementary; they do not
overlap.
| Dimension | retention-rollup | renewal-playbook |
|---|---|---|
| Scope | Portfolio (many accounts) | Single account |
| Output | NRR, GRR, churn, at-risk table | Account health score, renewal risk, action plan |
| When | Period review, board narrative, RevOps reporting | Before a renewal conversation, when an account is flagged at-risk |
| Who | RevOps, Sales Manager, CRO | AE assigned to the account |
When retention-rollup flags an unreviewed high-risk account, the recommended
action is to run renewal-playbook for that account. The two skills
hand off cleanly; they do not duplicate each other.
pipeline-auditor HubSpot tool-result analyzed by metrics-analyst.
Do not estimate or approximate starting ARR, churned ARR, or expansion
ARR from memory or a verbal description.renewal-playbook (DISTINCT; cross-reference;
do not merge).rules/common/forecasting-definitions.md (Commit /
Best case / Pipeline / Omitted/Closed -- exact names for renewal pipeline).rules/segments/enterprise.md,
rules/segments/mid-market.md, rules/segments/smb.md.sales-reporting (new-business
metrics; separate from retention metrics).pipeline-auditor (reads renewal opportunities and contract
records from HubSpot; read-only).metrics-analyst (read-only; computes NRR/GRR/churn from the
pipeline-auditor tool-result; does NOT query HubSpot directly).crm-operator (sole writer; at-risk tagging routes here)./retention.A-Z on-ramp for ONE named target account: multi-agent research PLUS a sequenced, multi-channel PLAN OF ATTACK. Trigger: 'plan of attack for X', 'how do I get into X', 'break into X', 'game plan for X'.
Live phone outreach — call blocks, openers, gatekeepers, voicemail scripts, and logging a disposition after every dial. Trigger: 'call block', 'dial session', 'cold call script', 'voicemail'.
Write or pressure-test a FIRST-touch message to a cold prospect (email, InMail, opener). Trigger: 'cold email', 'draft a first touch', 'is this opener good'. Owns the personalization quality gate.
HubSpot data-health enforcement — required fields by stage, stale records, duplicates, logging compliance. Trigger: 'CRM cleanup', 'data quality check', 'fix missing fields', 'why is my forecast wrong'.
Formal approval for non-standard terms — discounts over ceiling, redlines, ramps, payment terms. Trigger: 'deal desk', 'approve this discount', 'can I offer X', 'who signs off'.
Detect and merge duplicate CRM records — contacts, companies, deals — with a survivor recommendation. Trigger: 'merge duplicates', 'dedupe', 'two records for the same company'.