major-partnership-insider

name	major-partnership-insider
description	Use this skill to investigate potential major partnership announcements for a public company within the next 30-120 days by cross-validating unusual options flow, institutional filings, SEC disclosures, hiring, capex, operational readiness, and catalyst calendars. Use only public or user-provided data; produce probabilistic research, not trading instructions.

Major Partnership Insider

Purpose

Analyze whether a target public company is approaching a major strategic announcement by building a public-data evidence chain across four layers:

1. Derivatives intent: options flow, open interest, implied volatility, roll patterns, gamma/delta structure.
2. Institutional microstructure: 13F/13G/13D, activist pressure, market-maker accumulation, strategic holders.
3. Operational front-running: capex, construction, hiring, procurement, permits, customer-readiness.
4. Timeline alignment: expirations, earnings, conferences, fiscal deadlines, regulatory windows.

Do not present certainty. Do not give buy/sell instructions. Treat the result as investigative research and include invalidation risks.

Required Inputs

Collect or ask for:

• Target ticker, company name, sector, market cap, current price, and suspected event type.
• Recent unusual options trades: date/time, contract, strike, expiry, call/put, buy/sell, volume, OI, premium, IV, order type, spot price.
• Options chain snapshots: OI by strike/expiry, call wall, put wall, gamma exposure, delta exposure, volume/OI change.
• Recent SEC filings: 8-K, S-3, 424B, ATM prospectus, 10-Q, 10-K, 13F, 13G, 13D, Form 4.
• Institutional ownership changes: activists, quant funds, market makers, strategic investors.
• Operational evidence: capex announcements, construction starts, permits, equipment orders, project timelines, hiring pages, executive hires.
• Catalyst calendar: earnings, investor days, industry conferences, product launches, fiscal year-end, regulatory approvals.
• Peer comps: recent signed deals in the same sector, contract size, capacity, customer, and valuation reaction.

If current facts matter, verify with official/current sources before concluding.

Workflow

1. Establish The Base Thesis

Define the suspected event in one sentence:

• Event type: partnership, anchor customer, master lease, JV, M&A, restructuring, divestiture, financing, regulatory approval.
• Likely counterparty category: hyperscaler, chip company, cloud provider, strategic buyer, activist-backed operator, government, supplier.
• Materiality mechanism: revenue, valuation multiple, asset monetization, balance-sheet reset, business identity change.

Reject vague theses. A useful thesis must name the business mechanism.

2. Derivatives Forensics

Evaluate whether options activity looks like informed directional positioning or normal volatility trading.

Strong bullish evidence:

• Large premium, single-name, single-direction call buying.
• OTM calls bought aggressively despite high IV.
• Volume far above OI and average volume.
• Expiration covers a specific catalyst window with little wasted time.
• Repeated buying across days rather than one isolated print.
• Roll-up: selling lower strike calls to buy higher strike calls, implying a raised target.
• Time compression: rolling from later expiry to nearer expiry, implying event timing moved closer.
• Concentrated OI at catalyst expiry, especially paired with rising spot accumulation.

Weak or ambiguous evidence:

• Small premium relative to market cap.
• Bid-side prints that may be call selling.
• Multi-leg spreads with capped upside.
• Dealer hedging, index/ETF hedges, or sector beta trades.
• Calls bought during broad sector momentum without company-specific evidence.

Bearish or hedging evidence:

• Protective puts after a missed catalyst.
• Heavy call selling near resistance.
• Gamma pinning around call wall.
• IV crush after expected event passes.

Record contract-level facts in a table. Distinguish observed data from inferred intent.

3. Gamma, Delta, And Pinning Analysis

Map the options surface:

• Identify call wall, put wall, max gamma strikes, high OI strikes, and nearby expirations.
• Ask whether market makers may need to buy stock as price approaches short-call strikes.
• Separate squeeze potential from pinning risk.
• Track whether gamma concentration migrates upward over time.
• Watch for wall ratcheting: call wall moves from lower strike to higher strike as informed buyers roll up.
• If price repeatedly stalls at a call wall, treat it as resistance unless spot breaks it with volume.

Output:

• Squeeze trigger zone.
• Pinning zone.
• Invalidation zone.
• Expiry most connected to the suspected catalyst.

4. Institutional Microstructure

Review ownership filings and classify holders.

Activator signals:

• Activist investor enters or expands stake.
• 13D language pressures management on strategy, asset monetization, capital allocation, sale, spin-off, customer signing.
• Board engagement, public letters, settlement agreements, or proxy pressure.

Validator signals:

• Quant/market-maker ownership jumps unusually.
• Multiple unrelated institutions accumulate in the same quarter.
• Market makers' spot holdings rise alongside large call OI, consistent with delta hedging.
• Strategic or sector-specialist funds appear.

Caution:

• 13F data is delayed.
• Quant funds often hold many names.
• Do not assume coordination. Use "independent signal convergence," not collusion, unless there is direct evidence.

5. Operational Front-Running

Look for real-world preparation that would be irrational without a likely deal.

Strong signals:

• Speculative build: major construction or capex before official customer announcement.
• Core-and-shell or capacity buildout without named tenant.
• Long-lead equipment procurement: transformers, GPUs, chillers, power gear, aircraft, vessels, fabs, industrial tooling.
• Hiring for solutions engineering, technical pre-sales, enterprise sales, procurement, compliance, delivery, account management.
• Basis of design, certification, permitting, interconnect approval, customer due diligence, or pilot deployment language.
• Management repeatedly discusses a new customer class or business model before signing a named deal.

Sector adaptors:

• Data centers: MW capacity, power interconnect, Tier standard, cooling, anchor tenant, lease term.
• Biotech: trial enrollment, FDA meetings, CMC readiness, manufacturing slots.
• Defense: hiring cleared staff, facility security, budget line items, OTA/prototype awards.
• Energy: permits, grid queue, offtake, equipment deposits.
• SaaS/AI: enterprise pre-sales, solution architects, procurement/security roles, usage spikes, partner certifications.

6. SEC And Dilution Check

Before assigning a high probability, scan for filings that can change the interpretation:

• 8-K material agreements.
• S-3, 424B, ATM programs, convertibles, shelf offerings.
• Form 4 insider selling/buying.
• Risk factors mentioning customer concentration, financing needs, project delays.
• Debt covenants, going-concern language, liquidity constraints.

Treat fresh ATM/equity offerings as a major risk unless proceeds are clearly tied to the suspected deal.

7. Timeline Alignment

Build a date grid:

• Options trade dates.
• Expiration dates.
• Earnings date.
• Investor conference dates.
• Industry event dates.
• Fiscal quarter/year-end.
• Project milestones.
• Regulatory/permit deadlines.
• Peer announcement cadence.

A strong setup has at least two independent signals pointing to the same 2-6 week window.

8. Probability Scoring

Score each module from 0-5:

• Derivatives: size, direction, persistence, OTM aggression, roll behavior.
• Institutional: activist pressure, unusual accumulation, independent holder convergence.
• Operational: capex, hiring, procurement, permits, delivery readiness.
• Timeline: expiry/catalyst fit, announcement window, industry calendar.
• Contradictions: dilution, insider selling, missed catalysts, macro/sector stress, customer delay.

Suggested probability bands:

• 80-90%: confirmed operational setup plus extreme derivatives and precise timeline, but no public announcement yet.
• 65-79%: strong multi-source convergence; one key uncertainty remains.
• 50-64%: plausible but missing either operational proof or derivatives confirmation.
• 30-49%: speculative; signals are mixed or mostly sector-driven.
• Below 30%: weak evidence or strong contradictions.

Never output 100%.

Standard Report Format

Executive Verdict

• Overall probability:
• Expected event type:
• Likely counterparty category:
• Expected announcement window:
• Confidence level:
• Most important evidence:
• Biggest invalidation risk:

Evidence Matrix

Layer	Signal	Evidence	Strength	Interpretation
Derivatives
Institutions
Operations
Timeline
Risks

Derivatives Read

Include key trades, roll patterns, IV, OI, Vol/OI, gamma walls, squeeze zones, and pin zones.

Corporate And Operational Read

Summarize filings, capex, hiring, project readiness, peer comps, and business-model implications.

Scenario Map

• Bull case:
• Base case:
• Bear case:
• Invalidation triggers:
• What to monitor next:

Source Hygiene

Separate:

• Observed public facts.
• User-provided screenshots/data.
• Analyst inference.
• Speculation.

End with: "This is probabilistic research based on public/user-provided information and is not investment advice."