mlb-daily-probabilities

name	mlb-daily-probabilities
description	Regenerates today's MLB picks HTML and deploys to Cloudflare Workers. Does NOT rebuild wrangler.jsonc, src/worker.js, schema.sql, or any migrations — those are inputs and must exist before running.

You are generating only MLB_Probabilities/index.html and MLB_Probabilities/props.html for today's MLB slate and deploying to Cloudflare Workers. You must not touch wrangler.jsonc, src/worker.js, schema.sql, or any migration file. If any required input is missing, abort and report — do not scaffold or improvise.

Background on why this skill is cautious: on 2026-04-22 a prior run regenerated wrangler.jsonc from scratch with a minimal assets-only config, which stripped the Worker's main, D1 binding, and secret. Every subsequent deploy wiped /api/*, tracking, leaderboard, and DOE instrumentation until a manual restore on 2026-04-24. Follow the rules below to the letter.

STEP 0 — LOCATE INPUTS (ABORT IF MISSING)

The scheduled task harness places project files under /sessions/*/mnt/uploads/. Required inputs, checked in this order:

1. uploads/wrangler.jsonc — Worker deploy config (main + D1 + assets binding + assets.run_worker_first: ["/api/*"])
2. uploads/src/worker.js — Worker source (~477 lines, handles /api/*)
3. uploads/MLB_Probabilities/ — static asset directory containing index.html, props.html, leaderboard.html, me.html, and any other files

If any of those is missing, produce a short report that lists exactly what's missing and stop. Do not generate placeholder config. Do not deploy.

Copy all inputs into a writable working directory (/sessions/*/mnt/outputs/work/) and do all subsequent edits there. Do not modify the originals in uploads/.

Verify:

grep -q '"main"' work/wrangler.jsonc || abort "wrangler.jsonc missing main field"
grep -q '"d1_databases"' work/wrangler.jsonc || abort "wrangler.jsonc missing d1_databases"
grep -q '"run_worker_first"' work/wrangler.jsonc || abort "wrangler.jsonc missing run_worker_first routing"
test -s work/src/worker.js || abort "src/worker.js missing or empty"

If any check fails, report and stop.

STEP 1 — RESEARCH TODAY'S SLATE

• MLB schedule, probable pitchers, late scratches
• Injury reports (IL moves, day-to-day questionables that affect lineups)
• Weather for outdoor parks (wind direction/speed, temp, precip)
• Consensus lines — FanDuel as anchor (moneylines, totals, F5, props: HR, hits, RBI, TB, SB, Ks)

STEP 2 — BUILD PROBABILITIES

De-vig the FanDuel anchor to get implied probability. Adjust ±3–6pp based on:

• Pitcher handedness vs batter splits (L/R, wOBA, ISO)
• Recent form (last 15 games)
• Weather multipliers (wind out = +HR, cold/wind in = -HR)
• Park factors
• Bullpen fatigue / pen-burn

Pick edges ≥3pp over de-vigged line. Grade confidence:

• High: ≥6pp edge, strong multi-factor support
• Medium: 3–6pp edge, 2+ factors
• Low: edge present but fragile / variance-heavy

STEP 3 — REGENERATE work/MLB_Probabilities/index.html AND work/MLB_Probabilities/props.html ONLY

Preserve everything else in work/MLB_Probabilities/ exactly as-is. Do NOT touch leaderboard.html, me.html, .assetsignore, or any other file.

Use the existing HTML in uploads/MLB_Probabilities/ as the structural template — preserve the CSS block, nav, theme, tooltip CSS+JS, updated-badge CSS, and any JS that hooks up Track buttons. Only the data content changes.

STEP 3a — PICK PILL ATTRIBUTES (MANDATORY — THE TRACKING API DEPENDS ON THESE)

Every pick pill (<div class="pill ...">) must carry:

• data-pick-id="{YYYY-MM-DD}:{type}:{game-slug}:{detail-slug}" where type ∈ ml, total, f5, prop, parlay. Example: 2026-04-24:prop:HOU-NYY:yordan-alvarez:over-1-5-tb
• data-conf-score="{0-100}" — integer model confidence (High tier 70-90, Med 55-70, Low 45-55)
• data-edge-pct="{decimal}" — model probability minus de-vigged market probability, as decimal (e.g. 0.065 for +6.5pp)
• data-weather-cert="{0-1}" — confidence in weather data (1.0 for domes/predictable, 0.6 for unsettled)
• data-lineup-cert="{0-1}" — confidence that key batters/pitchers will play (1.0 confirmed lineup, 0.7 probable, 0.4 questionable)
• data-factors='{"park_hr_factor":1.08,"splits_edge_pp":4.2,"form_l15":0.320,...}' — JSON blob of bet-type-specific factors. Escape quotes for HTML attribute.
• data-reason="<plain-English one-paragraph explanation>" — used by the existing tooltip CSS

Include data-tip-side="left" on right-column pills to avoid tooltip viewport overflow.

STEP 3b — STAKE PILL AND UNIT SIZING

Straight plays: 1.00u baseline, scale 0.5–1.5u by confidence. Parlays (combined American odds):

• +150 to +250 → 0.50u
• +250 to +500 → 0.25u
• +500 to +1000 → 0.10u
• HR-pair parlays (2 HR legs) → 0.10u fixed
• +1000 to +2500 → 0.05u

• +2500 → 0.02u

Every pick renders <span class="stake-pill">0.25u</span>. Include a unit-guide legend block on both pages.

STEP 3c — LAST-UPDATED BADGE

Top of each page: <span class="updated-badge"><span class="dot"></span> {Day}, {Mon DD, YYYY} · {HH:MM} AM ET</span> with the pulsing green dot CSS from the existing template. Use actual current day/date/time (ET).

STEP 3d — TEAM LOGOS

Logo URL pattern: https://www.mlbstatic.com/team-logos/{MLB_TEAM_ID}.svg

ARI=109 ATL=144 BAL=110 BOS=111 CHC=112 CWS=145 CIN=113 CLE=114
COL=115 DET=116 HOU=117 KC=118 LAA=108 LAD=119 MIA=146 MIL=158
MIN=142 NYM=121 NYY=147 OAK=133 (ATH=133) PHI=143 PIT=134 SD=135
SF=137 SEA=136 STL=138 TB=139 TEX=140 TOR=141 WSH=120

props.html: inside each <div class="player">, prepend <img class="team-logo" src="https://www.mlbstatic.com/team-logos/{ID}.svg" alt="{ABBREV}" loading="lazy" /> using the card's data-team abbrev.

index.html: each <div class="matchup">Team A @ Team B</div> renders as logo+name @ logo+name using .team-logo.sm.

STEP 4 — DEPLOY

Do not regenerate wrangler.jsonc. Do not add/remove bindings. Run:

cd work
CLOUDFLARE_API_TOKEN="$CF_TOKEN" CLOUDFLARE_ACCOUNT_ID="9393ba26563604d847b6e1d03a2faa55" \
  npx --yes wrangler@4.83.0 deploy

Wrangler will read main, d1_databases, assets from the existing wrangler.jsonc. If the deploy output does NOT list env.DB (mlb-tracking) and env.ASSETS, abort and report — the config was tampered with.

The API token lives in $CF_TOKEN (scheduled task environment variable). If unset, abort — do not hardcode a token in this file.

STEP 5 — POST-DEPLOY VERIFICATION

Immediately after deploy, query the active version via API and confirm it has at least assets:ASSETS, d1:DB, and secret_text:SETTLE_SECRET:

curl -s "https://api.cloudflare.com/client/v4/accounts/9393ba26563604d847b6e1d03a2faa55/workers/scripts/mlb-probabilities/deployments?order=desc&per_page=1" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $CF_TOKEN" | jq -r '.result.deployments[0].versions[0].version_id'
# then GET /versions/{id} and check resources.bindings

If fewer than 3 bindings are present, wrangler rollback $PREV_VERSION and report. Do not leave a broken deploy live.

STEP 6 — HEALTH CHECKS (rollback on fail)

Fetch live site (expect 302 to Cloudflare Access login — that's fine, the Worker is up). Then fetch the asset-serve-directly mode via a known-good probe. Verify in the generated HTML files in work/MLB_Probabilities/:

• Today's date string appears in badge on both pages
• Pulsing green dot CSS present (updated-badge, .dot)
• ≥20 data-reason= occurrences across both pages
• ≥20 data-pick-id= occurrences across both pages
• ≥20 data-conf-score= occurrences across both pages (new DOE requirement)
• ≥20 data-edge-pct= occurrences across both pages
• ≥5 stake-pill occurrences
• unit-guide block on both pages
• ≥10 class="team-logo occurrences on each page
• ≥10 tooltips (data-reason) on props.html

If ANY check fails: wrangler rollback $PREV_VERSION and report.

STEP 7 — REPORT

Brief 3–5 line summary: slate size, top-confidence picks, total units staked, deploy version ID, any rollback/issue. Include live URL https://mlb-probabilities.bbaker-939.workers.dev/.

THINGS THIS SKILL MUST NEVER DO

• Regenerate wrangler.jsonc from scratch
• Regenerate src/worker.js
• Strip bindings from wrangler.jsonc
• Change compatibility_date
• Scaffold a minimal config if files are missing — report instead
• Hardcode a Cloudflare API token in this file
• Deploy if post-deploy binding verification fails