client-success

name	client-success
description	Client health scoring, churn prediction, retention playbooks, NPS framework, and expansion signals. Keeps OASIS AI clients healthy, growing, and referring.
tags	["skill","client-success","retention"]
triggers	["client success","use client success","run client success","client health scoring"]
tier	specialized

Client Success — Health Scoring and Retention System

Overview

Lost clients cost twice what new ones earn. This skill gives CC a repeatable system to measure every client relationship as a live number, predict churn before it happens, and take the right action at the right time.

Primary tool: python scripts/client_health.py Data source: Supabase leads table (project: bravo), filtered to status = client

---

Health Score Algorithm (0–100)

Each client is scored across five weighted dimensions every time the report runs.

Dimension	Weight	What It Measures
Payment Timeliness	25%	Days between due date and receipt
Engagement Frequency	25%	Messages and calls vs. expected baseline
Scope Satisfaction	20%	Deliverables on track vs. delayed
Revenue Trajectory	15%	MRR growing, stable, or declining
Relationship Signals	15%	Referrals given, upsell interest, response speed

Scoring Rubric Per Dimension

Payment Timeliness (25 pts max)

• Paid on time or early: 25
• 1–7 days late: 17
• 8–14 days late: 10
• 15+ days late: 2
• Two late payments in a row: subtract 5 from final score (floor 0)

Engagement Frequency (25 pts max)

• 4+ touchpoints/month (meetings, replies, check-ins): 25
• 2–3 touchpoints/month: 18
• 1 touchpoint/month: 10
• No contact in 14+ days: 0

Scope Satisfaction (20 pts max)

• All deliverables on schedule: 20
• 1 item delayed, acknowledged: 14
• 2+ items delayed or unacknowledged: 6
• Active scope dispute: 0

Revenue Trajectory (15 pts max)

• Upsell in last 60 days, or MRR grew: 15
• Stable MRR, no change in 90 days: 11
• Downgrade or partial cancellation discussed: 5
• Active cancellation discussion: 0

Relationship Signals (15 pts max)

• Gave a referral or case study in last 90 days: 15
• Responds within 24 hours consistently: 11
• Slow to respond (48–72 hours average): 6
• Unresponsive or mentions "pausing" / "budget review": 0

Final Score Calculation

health_score = (payment × 0.25) + (engagement × 0.25) + (scope × 0.20) + (revenue × 0.15) + (relationship × 0.15)

Scores are normalized to 0–100. No rounding — show one decimal.

---

Risk Tiers

Tier	Score	Color Code	Meaning
GREEN	80–100	✅	Healthy. Expansion opportunity window.
YELLOW	60–79	⚠️	Friction present. Proactive contact required.
ORANGE	40–59	🔶	At-risk. Intervention within 48 hours.
RED	0–39	🚨	Critical. Executive-level save attempt required now.

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Churn Prediction Triggers

Any single trigger moves a client one tier toward RED. Two or more triggers = immediate ORANGE minimum.

• No communication for 14+ consecutive days
• Payment 7+ days late for the second consecutive month
• Client declines a scope expansion or renewal discussion
• Client's response time has increased by 2x over 30 days
• Client uses phrases: "budget review", "pausing for now", "not the right time", "re-evaluating", "tightening up"
• Client cancels a scheduled meeting without rescheduling
• Deliverable missed by more than 7 days with no client acknowledgement
• Client stops reacting to content or engaging on social (if tracked)

When a churn trigger fires: log it immediately under the client's Supabase record and recompute health score.

---

Retention Playbooks

GREEN Tier (80–100): Expand and Protect

Goal: Deepen the relationship before complacency sets in.

1. Schedule quarterly business review (QBR) — review wins, preview next quarter
2. Share specific ROI evidence: automations run, time saved, revenue influenced
3. Introduce one upsell concept — frame it as "the natural next step"
4. Ask for a referral: "Do you know one other business owner who'd benefit from what we've done together?"
5. Send a handwritten note or unexpected value-add (relevant article, template, introduction)
6. Confirm contract renewal dates 60 days in advance

YELLOW Tier (60–79): Proactive Reconnection

Goal: Surface friction before it becomes a decision to leave.

1. Send a warm, non-salesy check-in within 48 hours of scoring YELLOW
2. Ask one open question: "What's the biggest thing slowing you down right now?"
3. Share a recent win from their account — remind them of the value being delivered
4. Review deliverable status and proactively update them, even if nothing is overdue
5. Offer one concrete addition to scope at no extra cost (if the friction point is perceived value)
6. Reschedule any lapsed standing calls — block time that works for them

ORANGE Tier (40–59): Intervention Within 48 Hours

Goal: Identify the specific issue and address it directly.

1. Call first — do not email. Text to schedule if needed.
2. Open with: "I want to make sure we're delivering the right things for you. Can we sync for 15 minutes?"
3. Listen for the real concern — don't defend, don't pitch. Ask and reflect back.
4. If it's budget: offer a modified scope that retains the relationship at lower MRR rather than full churn
5. If it's results: produce a results audit within 24 hours showing impact
6. If it's communication: create a standing weekly update and send the first one immediately
7. Log every detail of the conversation in Supabase

RED Tier (0–39): Save or Release

Goal: Make one final, genuine attempt. If it fails, exit cleanly.

1. CC personally reaches out — not Bravo, not automated. A real message.
2. Acknowledge the issue directly: "I know things haven't been where they should. That's on me."
3. Present a save offer: one-month pause, scope reduction, free extension of one deliverable
4. Give a clear decision timeline: "I'd love to know your thinking by [date] so I can plan accordingly."
5. If no response in 7 days: send an offboarding message that leaves the door open
6. Capture the root cause in memory/MISTAKES.md — what early signal was missed?
7. Update Supabase lead status to churned and log the final health score

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NPS Framework

When to Collect

• Onboarding complete (30 days in): pulse check
• Quarterly: at each QBR touchpoint
• Post-major-deliverable: immediately after a significant project completes
• At renewal: before the contract renewal conversation, not after

How to Collect

Send a single-question message (email or text, matching the client's preferred channel):

"Quick question — on a scale of 0-10, how likely are you to recommend OASIS AI to another business owner? No wrong answer."

Follow up with: "What's the main reason for that score?"

Score Interpretation

NPS Score	Classification	Action
9–10	Promoter	Ask for referral within 72 hours
7–8	Passive	Ask: "What would make this a 10?"
0–6	Detractor	Treat as ORANGE tier — immediate outreach

NPS → Health Score Adjustment

• Promoter (9–10): +5 bonus to relationship signals dimension
• Passive (7–8): no adjustment
• Detractor (0–6): -10 to final health score, force YELLOW minimum

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Expansion Playbook

Upsell Readiness Signals

A client is ready for an upsell conversation when at least three of these are true:

• Health score above 80 for two consecutive months
• Has referenced a new pain point or project in conversation
• MRR has been stable for 60+ days (not growing — stagnant is an opportunity)
• Recently gave a referral or positive testimonial
• Has asked "can you also do X?" in any channel

Cross-Sell Opportunities

Current Service	Natural Cross-Sell
n8n automation retainer	CRM build-out in Supabase
Lead generation automation	Email nurture sequences
Social content scheduling	Full content strategy retainer
One-time project	Monthly maintenance retainer
OASIS AI retainer	PropFlow for real-estate clients

Referral Request Script

Only ask when health score is GREEN and at a natural conversation break:

"We've been getting some great results together. Do you know one or two other business owners — doesn't have to be in your industry — who are still doing things manually that they could be automating? I'd love an introduction. I'll make sure they're taken care of."

---

Client Lifecycle Stages

Every client exists in exactly one stage. Stage transitions are logged in Supabase.

Stage	Definition	Primary Action
Onboarding	Contract signed, setup in progress (days 1–30)	Complete setup checklist, first win delivery
Ramp	Systems live, client learning the value (days 31–60)	Weekly check-ins, remove friction, document wins
Steady State	Delivering consistently, client engaged	Monthly updates, QBR, upsell exploration
Growth	Client expanding scope or referring others	Prioritize, reward loyalty, increase touchpoints
Renewal	60 days before contract end	QBR, renewal proposal, upsell packaging
At-Risk	Health score YELLOW or below	Retention playbook triggered
Churned	Contract cancelled	Root cause analysis, 90-day win-back check
Win-Back	Previously churned, re-engaged	Treat as new client, address original issue first

---

Weekly Client Health Report Template

Run every Friday before the week ends. Output format:

## Client Health Report — Week of [YYYY-MM-DD]

| Client | MRR | Health Score | Tier | Last Contact | Days Since Contact | Next Action |
|--------|-----|-------------|------|-------------|-------------------|-------------|
| [Name] | $X,XXX | XX.X | 🟢 GREEN | [date] | X days | [action] |
| [Name] | $X,XXX | XX.X | ⚠️ YELLOW | [date] | X days | [action] |

**Portfolio MRR:** $X,XXX | **Average Health:** XX.X | **At-Risk Revenue:** $X,XXX

### Alerts This Week
- 🚨 [Client]: [specific trigger fired]
- ⚠️ [Client]: [specific risk signal]

### Actions Required This Week
1. [Priority action — client — deadline]
2. [Priority action — client — deadline]

---

Integration with CEO Briefing

The /briefing skill calls python scripts/client_health.py report --json in Section 3. Any ORANGE or RED clients surface as blocked items in Section 5 (Blocked Items).

---

Automated Health Score Calculation

Run python scripts/client_health.py score <client_name> to compute a fresh score from raw inputs. The formula is:

# Input variables (update per client each week)
payment_score     = compute_payment(days_late, consecutive_late_count)
engagement_score  = compute_engagement(touchpoints_per_month)
scope_score       = compute_scope(deliverables_on_time, disputes)
revenue_score     = compute_revenue(mrr_trend, upsell_recency_days)
relationship_score = compute_relationship(referral_given, avg_response_hours)

health = (
    payment_score     * 0.25 +
    engagement_score  * 0.25 +
    scope_score       * 0.20 +
    revenue_score     * 0.15 +
    relationship_score * 0.15
)
# Result: 0.0–100.0, one decimal place

Quick data-entry format (paste into CLI or session notes):

CLIENT: [name]
payment_days_late: 0         # 0 = on time, positive = days late
consecutive_late: 0          # how many months in a row late
touchpoints_month: 4         # calls + replies + check-ins this month
deliverables_on_track: true  # bool
scope_disputes: 0            # active disputes
mrr_trend: stable            # growing | stable | declining | at_risk
upsell_days_ago: null        # null if no recent upsell
referral_given: false        # gave referral in last 90 days
avg_response_hours: 18       # average hours to reply

---

Churn Prediction Model

Three warning signals. Any one moves the client toward RED. Two or more = immediate intervention.

Signal 1 — Engagement Drop (>20%)

Definition: Touchpoint frequency has dropped by 20%+ vs the prior 4-week average.

Engagement drop % = (prior_avg_touchpoints - current_touchpoints) / prior_avg_touchpoints × 100

If result ≥ 20% → SIGNAL FIRED

Action: Send a warm, non-salesy check-in within 24 hours. Do not mention the metric. Ask one open question about their business.

Signal 2 — Payment Lateness Pattern

Definition: Two consecutive payments received more than 7 days after due date.

Action: Call (not email) within 48 hours. Do not discuss payment on the call — lead with value. Assess whether the lateness is cash-flow (temporary) or satisfaction-based (deeper problem).

Signal 3 — Communication Decay

Definition: Average response time has increased by 2x over the trailing 30 days (e.g., was 12 hours, now 24+ hours) AND the client has not proactively initiated contact in 14+ days.

Action: Treat as YELLOW minimum. Initiate a "how can I make this easier for you?" message. Short, low-pressure.

Combined Signal Scoring

Active Signals	Minimum Tier
0	Current tier
1	YELLOW
2	ORANGE
3	RED

---

Proactive Retention Playbook

Quarterly Business Review (QBR) — Client-Facing

Schedule at weeks 12, 24, 36 of each client relationship. This is not an internal report — it's a client-facing meeting.

Agenda (30 minutes):

1. Wins this quarter (10 min) — Show 3 specific results with numbers. Frame them in the client's language (time saved, leads captured, cost avoided).
2. What we're watching (5 min) — Honest update on anything that didn't go as planned. Don't hide it — they already know.
3. Preview next quarter (10 min) — What we're building or improving. Position it as "the natural next step" based on what they shared today.
4. Open question (5 min) — "What's the one thing that would make this 10x more valuable for you?"

Prep checklist:

• Pull 3 concrete wins from Supabase logs (automations run, leads generated, hours saved)
• Review health score trend for the quarter
• Prepare one expansion idea based on their stated pain points
• Have contract renewal date visible if within 90 days

Value Demonstration Touchpoints

Monthly, between QBRs, send one value-proof artifact. Rotate through:

Month	Artifact Type	Example
Month 1	Automation report	"Your lead capture automation ran 47 times this month, saving ~6 hours"
Month 2	Benchmark	"Your response time is now 4 minutes vs industry average of 3 hours"
Month 3	Opportunity flag	"I noticed X pattern in your data — we could automate this next"

Rules: Never send a generic update. Every message should reference something specific to that client.

Expansion Signals → Expansion Conversation

When 3+ of these are true, schedule an expansion conversation (not an email):

• Health score ≥ 80 for 2 consecutive months
• Client has mentioned a new pain point or project in any channel
• MRR stable for 60+ days (stagnant = untapped opportunity)
• Client gave a referral or positive testimonial in last 90 days
• Client asked "can you also do X?" in any channel

Expansion conversation structure: "Based on everything we've built together, I think there's an opportunity to [specific next thing]. The way I'd approach it is [brief plan]. Would it make sense to explore that?"

---

Client Lifetime Value Tracking

LTV Formula (per client)

Client LTV = Monthly MRR × Gross Margin % × Expected Lifespan (months)

Expected lifespan = 1 ÷ Monthly Churn Rate (for the portfolio)

Example: $1,500/mo × 94% margin × 24 months = $33,840 LTV

LTV Tier Classification

LTV Range	Classification	Priority Level
>$30,000	Enterprise	White-glove. Weekly touchpoints. Never miss a signal.
$15,000–$30,000	Strategic	Bi-weekly touchpoints. Full QBR. Top of expansion list.
$5,000–$15,000	Growth	Monthly touchpoints. QBR every 6 months.
<$5,000	Standard	Async relationship. Monthly report. QBR annually.

LTV Tracking in Supabase

# Pull LTV estimates for all active clients
python scripts/client_health.py ltv --all

# Update expected lifespan after churn event
python scripts/client_health.py ltv update <client_id> --lifespan 18

Store fields: client_id, mrr, start_date, ltv_estimate, ltv_actual_to_date, ltv_tier.

Portfolio LTV Health Check

Run quarterly. Answer three questions:

1. Is average LTV growing quarter-over-quarter? (Yes = good retention and expansion)
2. What % of total portfolio LTV is tied to one client? (Target: <50%)
3. What is the LTV:CAC ratio? (Target: ≥5:1, exceptional ≥10:1)

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Outbound Gate Compliance

All outbound communications (emails, notifications, messages) referenced in this skill MUST be routed through scripts/integrations/send_gateway.py. Direct smtplib or raw SMTP calls are architecturally prohibited (V5.6 chokepoint rule). Use:

python scripts/integrations/send_gateway.py send --channel email --to <email> --subject "..." --body "..." --lead-id <uuid>

See [[skills/send-gateway/SKILL.md]] for the full contract.

Obsidian Links

• [[brain/STATE]] | [[memory/ACTIVE_TASKS]] | [[memory/SESSION_LOG]] | [[brain/CAPABILITIES]]
• [[skills/revenue-operations/SKILL.md]] | [[../../CMO-Agent/skills/lead-management/SKILL]]
• [[skills/ceo-briefing/SKILL.md]] | [[skills/financial-modeling/SKILL.md]] | [[brain/USER]]