economic-outlook

name	economic-outlook
description	Comprehensive macro economic analysis covering business cycle positioning, inflation trends, labor market conditions, yield curve signals, Fed policy outlook, and portfolio implications. Use this skill when you need to understand the economic environment, assess recession risk, or evaluate how macro conditions affect your portfolio. Ask for an "economic outlook", "macro analysis", "fed watch", "recession risk assessment", "economy overview", "macro outlook", "interest rates analysis", "yield curve check", or "inflation update" to trigger this workflow. Produces an Economic Brief contract output.
triggers	["economic outlook","macro analysis","fed watch","recession risk","economy overview","macro outlook","interest rates","yield curve","inflation update"]

Generate a comprehensive macro economic analysis by calling these tools in parallel:

1. terminalq_get_macro_dashboard() — all key FRED indicators (GDP, CPI, unemployment, Fed funds, yields, claims, payrolls, PCE, etc.)
2. terminalq_get_economic_calendar(14) — upcoming events over the next 2 weeks
3. terminalq_chart_yield_curve() — Treasury yield curve visualization
4. terminalq_get_forex("") — major currency pairs dashboard
5. terminalq_get_quotes_batch("SPY,TLT,GLD,USO,UUP") — real-time asset class proxies (equities, bonds, gold, oil, dollar)

After gathering all data, synthesize following the Economic Brief contract in docs/output-contracts.md:

Business Cycle Position:

• Assess where we are: early expansion, mid expansion, late expansion, contraction
• Use GDP growth rate, unemployment trend, and leading indicators to determine phase
• Compare current readings to historical cycle patterns

Inflation Dashboard:

• CPI trend (headline and core if available)
• PCE (Fed's preferred measure)
• Direction: accelerating, stable, or decelerating
• Implications for Fed policy

Labor Market:

• Unemployment rate and direction
• Initial claims trend (leading indicator)
• Nonfarm payrolls growth
• Assessment: strong, cooling, or deteriorating

Yield Curve Analysis:

• Embed the yield curve chart
• Is it inverted? (2Y-10Y spread)
• What does the shape signal? (Normal = expansion, flat = slowdown, inverted = recession warning)
• How has it changed recently?

Fed Policy Outlook:

• Current Fed funds rate
• Based on inflation and employment data, is the Fed likely to cut, hold, or hike?
• Timeline expectation

Currency & Commodities:

• Dollar strength (UUP proxy)
• Gold trend (risk haven demand)
• Oil direction (inflation input, demand indicator)
• Major forex moves

Portfolio Implications:

• Which asset classes benefit from current macro regime?
• Risk factors to watch
• Positioning suggestions (overweight/underweight equity, bonds, commodities)

Upcoming Catalysts:

• List the most important upcoming economic releases and their expected market impact

Data Freshness: Include a table noting each data source, how recent it is, and confidence level (High/Moderate/Low per docs/output-contracts.md).

Disclaimer: End with the standard disclaimer from docs/output-contracts.md.

Present as a structured macro brief — lead with the big picture, then drill into each area.

Failure Modes

Failure Mode	Signal	Response
FRED API down	terminalq_get_macro_dashboard returns errors	This is critical — most sections depend on FRED data. Note that macro data is unavailable; focus on market proxies (SPY, TLT, GLD) for directional signals
Yield curve fails	terminalq_chart_yield_curve errors	Skip chart; describe yield curve shape from FRED rate data if available
Forex data missing	terminalq_get_forex fails	Skip Currency & Commodities forex section; use UUP quote as dollar proxy
Calendar empty	terminalq_get_economic_calendar returns no events	Note that no upcoming events were found; check if this is a holiday period
Stale FRED data	Indicators show data > 30 days old	Note in Data Freshness that economic data releases on a lag (monthly/quarterly) — this is normal for FRED

When Not to Use

• Do not use for individual stock analysis — use company-research instead
• Do not use for portfolio-specific review — use portfolio-health instead
• Do not use for trade timing — use trade-research which incorporates macro context