critical-thinking

name	critical-thinking
description	Develop logical analysis skills - break down complex problems, identify root causes, test assumptions, evaluate evidence quality, build sound arguments. Use for problem analysis, decision-making, and validating business logic.
allowed-tools	Write
metadata	{"version":"2.0","claude-code":{"context":"fork","agent":"Explore","user-invocable":true}}

Critical Thinking for BA

Master the BA's core skill: analyzing problems logically and rigorously.

What is Critical Thinking for BA?

Definition: Disciplined process of actively analyzing, evaluating, and synthesizing information to reach well-reasoned conclusions and identify root causes.

When to Use:

• ✅ Analyzing complex business problems
• ✅ Breaking down vague requirements into specific issues
• ✅ Testing assumptions before major decisions
• ✅ Evaluating competing proposals fairly
• ✅ Identifying root causes vs symptoms
• ✅ Building logical arguments for stakeholders

---

5 Core Thinking Frameworks

1. Root Cause Analysis (5 Whys)

Dig deeper to find real cause, not symptoms.

Process:

Problem: "Users complaining about slow system"
Why 1: Why is system slow?
      → Database queries taking too long
Why 2: Why are queries slow?
      → Missing indexes on common queries
Why 3: Why missing indexes?
      → Database optimization not prioritized
Why 4: Why not prioritized?
      → Performance metrics not tracked
Why 5: Why not tracked?
      → No performance SLA defined

Root Cause: Missing performance SLA and monitoring

When: When initial problem seems obvious but may not be the real issue

See: references/root-cause-analysis.md

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2. Logical Argumentation (Toulmin Model)

Build arguments that stakeholders can follow and challenge.

Structure:

CLAIM: "We should build feature X"

EVIDENCE:
- 60% of users requested this
- Competitors have it
- User testing shows $50K annual value

WARRANT (Why evidence supports claim):
- User research is reliable indicator
- Competitor feature validates market need
- Financial impact is material

COUNTER-ARGUMENT:
- Effort: 3 months development
- Risk: Integration complexity

CONCLUSION:
- Benefits outweigh costs
- Recommend proceeding

When: Presenting proposals to decision-makers

See: references/logical-argumentation.md

---

3. Assumption Testing (Lean Startup)

Validate critical assumptions before committing resources.

Framework:

Business Model Assumption: "Users will pay $50/month"

Test Method: Interview 20 users
Critical Success Factors:
- 70%+ express interest
- 50%+ willing to commit
- Average acceptable price: $40-60

Results:
- 75% interested ✓
- 45% willing to commit ✗
- Average acceptable: $30-40 ✗

Decision: Price assumption invalid, need adjustment

When: Major decisions depend on unproven assumptions

See: references/assumption-testing.md

---

4. MECE Analysis (Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive)

Organize information clearly so nothing is missed.

Example:

Problem: "User engagement is declining"

MECE breakdown:
├─ User Segments
│  ├─ New users (0-30 days) ← Check separately
│  ├─ Active users (31+ days)
│  └─ Churned users
│
├─ Engagement Metrics
│  ├─ Frequency (sessions/week)
│  ├─ Duration (time per session)
│  └─ Feature usage
│
└─ Decline Period
   ├─ Last month
   ├─ Last quarter
   └─ Last year

When: Analyzing large problems systematically

See: references/mece-analysis.md

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5. Bayesian Thinking (Probability & Evidence)

Update beliefs as you gather evidence.

Framework:

Prior Belief: "Feature X will be adopted by 30% of users"
(Based on similar features)

Evidence 1: User interviews show 60% expressing interest
→ Update: Maybe 40-50% adoption likely

Evidence 2: Competitor adoption is 20%
→ Update: Maybe 30-35% adoption

Evidence 3: User testing shows difficult UX
→ Update: Back to 25-30% adoption

Final Assessment: 28% adoption likely
(More accurate than initial guess)

When: Making decisions with incomplete information

See: references/bayesian-thinking.md

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Critical Thinking Process (8 Steps)

1. Define Problem Clearly

   • What exactly is the problem?
   • Symptoms vs root cause?
   • Scope and boundaries?

2. Gather Evidence

   • What data exists?
   • What's missing?
   • Is source reliable?

3. Identify Assumptions

   • What are we assuming?
   • Which assumptions critical?
   • Which unvalidated?

4. Analyze Alternatives

   • What other explanations possible?
   • What other solutions available?
   • What trade-offs for each?

5. Evaluate Logic

   • Do conclusions follow from evidence?
   • Any logical fallacies?
   • Any missing steps?

6. Test Conclusions

   • How would we know if right?
   • What would prove wrong?
   • What gaps remain?

7. Document Reasoning

   • Why this conclusion?
   • What evidence supports it?
   • What's uncertain?

8. Communicate Decision

   • Clear to stakeholders?
   • Can they challenge reasoning?
   • Buy-in achieved?

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Common Thinking Pitfalls to Avoid

❌ Confirmation Bias: Only seeking evidence that supports your view ✅ Fix: Actively search for contradicting evidence

❌ Anchoring Bias: First number heard becomes reference point ✅ Fix: Generate estimates independently before comparing

❌ False Cause: Assuming A caused B because they happened together ✅ Fix: Use 5 Whys to find actual mechanism

❌ Sunk Cost Fallacy: Continuing because invested so much already ✅ Fix: Evaluate only future costs/benefits, not past investment

❌ False Dichotomy: "Either A or B" when other options exist ✅ Fix: Use MECE to find all alternatives

❌ Argument from Authority: "Expert says so, therefore true" ✅ Fix: Evaluate evidence, not authority

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Tools & Templates

• 📋 5 Whys Analysis Template: assets/5-whys-template.md
• 📋 Assumption Testing Template: assets/assumption-test-template.md
• 📋 MECE Analysis Template: assets/mece-template.md
• 📋 Logical Argument Template: assets/argument-template.md

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Usage Examples

/critical-thinking "Sales declining but product reviews are positive"
/critical-thinking "Should we build mobile app or web app first?"
/critical-thinking "Users report feature X is confusing - cause unclear"

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BA Standards & References

Based on:

• Critical Thinking Skills: Bloom's Taxonomy (Analyze, Evaluate, Create)
• Root Cause Analysis: Lean Startup methodology
• Logic & Argumentation: Toulmin Model
• Problem Analysis: BABOK - Problem Analysis & Root Cause Analysis

Detailed Frameworks:

• 📚 references/root-cause-analysis.md - 5 Whys with business examples
• 📚 references/logical-argumentation.md - Building convincing arguments
• 📚 references/assumption-testing.md - Validating risky assumptions
• 📚 references/mece-analysis.md - Organizing complex problems
• 📚 references/bayesian-thinking.md - Probabilistic reasoning