ladder-of-inference

name	ladder-of-inference
description	Use the ladder of inference to slow down conclusions and inspect selected data, interpretations, assumptions, beliefs, and actions. Use when decisions may be based on unchecked assumptions or incomplete reality.
license	MIT
metadata	{"author":"itzcull"}

Ladder of Inference

Overview

• Category: Decision Making
• Purpose: "Avoid jumping to conclusions. Make decisions based on reality."

The Ladder Steps

1. Available data
2. Selected data
3. Interpretations
4. Assumptions
5. Conclusions
6. Beliefs
7. Actions

How It Works

The ladder represents mental processes that typically happen unconsciously. By consciously examining each step, you can:

• Challenge your own thinking
• Understand how you reach conclusions
• Make more objective decisions

How to Use the Tool

Guiding Questions for Each Step

• Actions: Why do I believe this is the right action?
• Beliefs: What beliefs do I hold about this?
• Conclusions: Why did I conclude this?
• Assumptions: Are my assumptions valid?
• Interpretations: Am I looking at this data objectively?
• Selected data: What data might I be ignoring?

Example Scenario

A manager considering firing an underperforming developer uses the ladder to:

• Unpack assumptions about missed deadlines
• Consider alternative explanations
• Avoid premature decision-making

Resources

• Developed by Chris Argyris, former Harvard professor
• Sources:
  • "The Fifth Discipline" by Peter Senge
  • "Rethinking thinking" by Trevor Maber
  • "The Ladder of Inference" on Systems Thinker

Additional Offering

A worksheet is available for practicing this tool, part of a bundle with 9 other thinking tools.

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Source: https://untools.co/ladder-of-inference/