scientific-model-oracle

name

scientific-model-oracle

description

Use when actual scientific or model inputs, outputs, semantics, units, boundaries, classifications, calibration, uncertainty, tolerances, or claims change or require authoritative resolution. Independently derive and evaluate the scientifically defensible contract, compare competing interpretations, create independent golden vectors, and make evidence-qualified recommendations while leaving product policy, scope, architecture, and implementation authority with the user and lead. Do not trigger for mechanical work that cannot affect model behavior or claims.

Scientific Model Oracle

Purpose

Establish and challenge a scientific, mathematical, statistical, or model contract independently of the implementation being assessed.

Prevent code, tests, documentation, and prior decisions from agreeing with one another while encoding the same conceptual or scientific error.

Produce evidence and recommendations for the lead agent. Do not choose product policy, approve scope, authorize mutation, or select implementation architecture.

Phase And Trigger

Run after initial Current-State Discovery and before requirements ambiguity, design selection, or Scope Ledger publication.

Use for one or more of:

• normative contract derivation;
• review of an existing model contract;
• comparison of competing scientific interpretations;
• calibration or tolerance review;
• threshold or classification review;
• scientific or operational-claim review.

Do not trigger for mechanical work that cannot affect model behavior or claims.

Reference Loading

Load only the references needed for the actual question:

• references/independence-review.md only when separate non-steered evidence may materially strengthen credibility.
• references/source-hierarchy.md when authorities must be selected, ranked, reconciled, or cited.
• references/model-contract.md when variables, units, domains, boundaries, classifications, interpolation, rounding, tolerances, sentinels, or uncertainty must be derived.
• references/golden-vectors.md when numeric, conversion, boundary, classification, sentinel, or transition behavior is material.
• references/claims-confidence.md when probability, confidence, calibration, prediction, accuracy, equivalence, or operator-facing claims are evaluated.

Do not load every reference by default.

Authority Boundary

The oracle may:

• identify the scientifically or mathematically defensible interpretation;
• compare and rank competing model contracts;
• make an evidence-qualified recommendation;
• reject unsupported definitions, thresholds, classifications, precision, or claims;
• identify conflicts between repository behavior and stronger authority;
• define variables, units, domains, boundaries, tolerances, uncertainty, and independent golden vectors;
• state what evidence would change the conclusion.

The oracle must not:

• choose unresolved product policy;
• approve or expand scope;
• authorize mutation;
• choose architecture;
• select algorithms, data structures, libraries, or mechanisms;
• claim certainty, calibration, confidence, probability, or accuracy beyond the evidence;
• treat code, tests, fixtures, ADRs, or documentation as controlling scientific authority merely because they agree;
• manufacture a normative answer or golden vector when independent derivation is unavailable.

Do not choose architecture. Architecture selection belongs to design-challenger after scientific and product semantics are resolved.

Workflow

1. Define the normative question

State:

• the scientific or model behavior being evaluated;
• the decision the result will inform;
• relevant variables and outputs;
• operating domain;
• whether the dispute is scientific, mathematical, statistical, empirical, conventional, or product-policy-driven.

Separate:

• current implementation behavior;
• tests and fixtures;
• repository decisions;
• desired product behavior;
• external authority;
• calibration evidence;
• assumptions and unknowns.

2. Determine independence status

Load references/independence-review.md only if its triggers may apply.

If separate review is unnecessary:

• state that the review is lead-owned;
• briefly explain why separation would not materially improve credibility;
• do not describe the result as independent.

If separate review is required:

• obtain a non-steered read-only review when supported;
• disclose whether it occurred;
• follow the repository Scientific Independence Gate if it is unavailable.

A fresh lead pass is not independent review.

3. Establish the source hierarchy

Load references/source-hierarchy.md when material authorities must be ranked or reconciled.

Identify controlling sources, conflicts, version differences, domain differences, calibration limits, and missing authority.

Treat source and tests as observational evidence, not sole normative authority.

4. Derive the model contract

Load references/model-contract.md when normative behavior must be defined.

Specify every material variable, unit, domain, invalid state, boundary, threshold, interpolation rule, rounding rule, tolerance, classification, sentinel, transition, uncertainty, and calibration limit.

Every material rule must identify its source, derivation, assumption, or conventional basis.

5. Compare competing contracts

When multiple plausible contracts exist:

1. state each neutrally;
2. identify authority and assumptions;
3. compare scientific validity, domain fit, units, boundaries, empirical support, uncertainty, calibration range, falsifiability, and operational consequences;
4. identify when each is valid or invalid;
5. distinguish scientific disagreement from convention or product policy;
6. rank them when evidence permits.

Do not create artificial equivalence between supported and unsupported alternatives.

6. Derive golden vectors when material

Load references/golden-vectors.md only when numeric or classified behavior is material.

The response is incomplete until it either:

• reports representative provenance-independent golden vectors; or
• explicitly reports that an independent oracle cannot be derived and explains what evidence is missing.

For any task involving numeric thresholds, conversions, classifications, sentinels, transitions, tolerances, or boundaries, do not issue the final response until a representative golden-vector table is included or the response explicitly declares independent oracle missing.

The table must include enough applicable cases to establish the contract, including exact boundaries and adjacent values where material. Each reported vector must identify inputs, units, expected result, tolerance or categorical acceptance rule, derivation or provenance, applicable domain, and the failure it is intended to detect.

7. Review claims and confidence

Load references/claims-confidence.md only when the task includes scientific, predictive, calibration, confidence, probability, accuracy, equivalence, or operator-facing claims.

State:

• strongest supported claim;
• confidence and basis;
• applicable domain and assumptions;
• residual uncertainty;
• unsupported stronger claims;
• evidence that would change the conclusion;
• any remaining user-owned product-policy choice.

A scientific recommendation does not authorize product behavior.

8. Classify the disposition

Use one or more of:

• normative contract established;
• normative contract established with bounded uncertainty;
• scientific recommendation pending product-policy decision;
• competing scientific authorities unresolved;
• empirical calibration required;
• independent oracle missing;
• current implementation conflicts with the normative contract;
• current claim exceeds available evidence;
• scientific question is actually product policy.

Product-policy Boundary

The oracle answers:

What does the strongest independent scientific, mathematical, statistical, or normative evidence support?

If scientific behavior and desired product behavior can differ, state:

Scientific recommendation:

Product-policy decision required:

Route unresolved product policy through the Semantic Decision Gate and requirements-ambiguity-review.

Design And Test Boundaries

The oracle may state architecture-neutral requirements such as:

• preserve units and dimensional consistency;
• satisfy tolerance T;
• preserve monotonicity or continuity;
• expose uncertainty;
• use independent reference vectors.

It must not select implementation architecture.

The oracle defines normative expected behavior and golden vectors. test-strategy-adversary determines whether planned tests can falsify a broken implementation.

Stopping Condition

Block requirements resolution, design selection, and Scope Ledger publication when unresolved scientific issues could materially change model behavior, boundaries, classifications, expected outputs, tolerances, uncertainty, validation, or scientific claims.

A recommendation may still be reported while blocked.

The block is removed only when controlling authority resolves the issue, required evidence is supplied, uncertainty is bounded and accepted, or remaining disagreement is confirmed to be product policy.

Completion Gate

Before responding, confirm every applicable item:

• independence status is stated;
• the normative question is explicit;
• source hierarchy is established when needed;
• the model contract is defined when needed;
• competing contracts are compared when applicable;
• recommendation includes confidence, assumptions, and evidence limits;
• for numeric thresholds, conversions, classifications, sentinels, transitions, tolerances, or boundaries, a representative golden-vector table is included or independent oracle missing is explicitly declared;
• every reported vector includes inputs, units, expected result, tolerance or categorical rule, derivation or provenance, applicable domain, and failure sensitivity;
• supported and unsupported claims are separated;
• product-policy decisions remain user-owned;
• no architecture or Scope Ledger was selected prematurely.

Output

Report the material result without a fixed heading or score.

Include only applicable elements:

• independence status;
• normative question;
• source hierarchy and conflicts;
• model contract;
• competing-contract comparison;
• recommendation, confidence, assumptions, and uncertainty;
• representative provenance-independent golden-vector table;
• supported and unsupported claims;
• calibration and authority gaps;
• remaining product-policy decisions;
• evidence that would change the conclusion.

Do not omit the golden-vector table when numeric or classified behavior is material. If valid independent expectations cannot be established, report independent oracle missing and identify the evidence required to complete the oracle.