| name | prediction-markets-analysis |
| description | Generate deep research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. Combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to surface price drivers, compare market vs. model probabilities, and identify potential mispricings across 120+ active markets. |
Prediction Markets Analysis
Generate comprehensive research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. This skill combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to identify mispricings, surface price drivers, and provide actionable trading insights.
Prerequisites
Ensure Octagon MCP is configured in your AI agent (Cursor, Claude Desktop, Windsurf, etc.). See references/mcp-setup.md for installation instructions.
Note: Report generation requires Octagon Plus, Pro, or Enterprise subscription (3 credits per report). Cached reports are free for all users.
Core Functionality
The Prediction Markets Agent provides:
| Capability | Description |
|---|
| Market vs. Model Probability | Computes independent model probability and compares against live market price |
| Event-Driven Research | Identifies key claims, catalysts, and decision-flipping events |
| Historical Resolution Tracking | Surfaces past resolution outcomes for context on base rates |
| Contract Snapshot | Returns live bid/ask spreads, last traded price, volume, and open interest |
| Cross-Category Coverage | 120+ active markets across Politics, Economics, Crypto, Sports, Entertainment, Science & Tech, Climate |
Model Variants
