PRA

Compute and update the probability of a risk event from root causes, and turn risk probabilities into project cost distributions, using the PRA package. Use when a user has a risk register with root-cause probabilities and wants a prior risk probability, a Bayesian update after observing causes, or a cost-impact distribution.

Quantify structural coupling between project tasks through shared resources and risks using the PRA package's Design Structure Matrices. Use when a user provides a resource–task matrix (and optionally a risk–resource matrix) and wants to see which task pairs are coupled and therefore tend to fail together.

Measure project cost/schedule performance and forecast final outcomes with Earned Value Management using the PRA package. Use when a user provides a budget (BAC), a planned schedule curve, and actual costs/progress and wants SPI, CPI, variances, or an Estimate at Completion (EAC).

Fit sigmoidal (S-curve) learning curves and forecast future values with the PRA package. Use when a user has historical time/completion (or unit/cost) data showing slow start, rapid acceleration, and plateau, and wants a fitted model plus predictions with confidence intervals.

Run Monte Carlo (or fast Second Moment) schedule/cost risk simulations with the PRA package. Use when a user provides task-level uncertainty distributions and needs the range of possible project outcomes — mean, standard deviation, and P5/P50/P95 percentiles — optionally accounting for task correlation.

Route a project risk analysis request to the right PRA tool. Use this as the entry point whenever a user asks about project cost/schedule uncertainty, earned value, risk probabilities, learning curves, or task dependencies and you are unsure which PRA capability applies. Points to the method-specific skills and the underlying MCP tools served by pra_mcp_server().

Size a project contingency reserve and rank the tasks that drive total uncertainty, using the PRA package. Use after (or alongside) a Monte Carlo simulation when a user asks "how much reserve do I need?" or "which tasks should I focus mitigation on?"