sector-analyst

name	sector-analyst
description	Use when the user asks about sector rotation, which sectors are leading or lagging, what phase of the market cycle we are in, or whether to add cyclical vs defensive exposure. Produces a risk regime score and 2-4 probability-weighted scenarios using MA cross signals and sentiment across the 11 SPDR sector ETFs.

Sector Analyst

Overview

Assesses sector rotation patterns and market cycle phase using MA cross trend signals and news sentiment across all 11 SPDR sector ETFs. Outputs a risk regime score, uptrend ratio, and 2-4 forward scenarios with probability weights.

When to Use

• "Which sectors are in an uptrend right now?"
• "Are we in a risk-on or risk-off environment?"
• "Should I rotate from tech into energy?"
• "What phase of the market cycle are we in?"
• "Is the market breadth improving or deteriorating?"

Sector ETF Reference

Signal ETFs (SPDR — for trend/sentiment signals only; NOT tradeable from EU account due to MiFID II):

Sector	Signal ETF	Characteristic
Technology	XLK	Cyclical / Growth
Financials	XLF	Cyclical / Rate-sensitive
Energy	XLE	Cyclical / Commodity-linked
Healthcare	XLV	Defensive
Industrials	XLI	Cyclical / Late-cycle
Consumer Discretionary	XLY	Cyclical / Growth
Consumer Staples	XLP	Defensive
Utilities	XLU	Defensive / Rate-sensitive
Materials	XLB	Cyclical / Commodity-linked
Real Estate	XLRE	Rate-sensitive
Communication Services	XLC	Cyclical / Growth

Tradeable UCITS equivalents (LSE/XETRA-listed — use these to execute rotations):

Signal ETF	UCITS Equivalent	Exchange	Notes
XLK / QQQ (tech)	EQQQ	LSE	Nasdaq 100, acc
XLE (energy)	XLES	XETRA	S&P Energy Select Sector, acc
Broad US market	CSPX	LSE	S&P 500, acc
Global / diversified	IWDA	LSE	MSCI World, acc
Europe	IMEU	LSE	MSCI Europe, acc
Emerging Markets	EMIM	LSE	MSCI EM, acc
Gold / commodity	SGLN	LSE	Physical gold, acc
Bonds (safe haven)	IBTA	LSE	US Treasuries 1-3yr, acc
REITs	IUES	LSE	FTSE EPRA/NAREIT, acc

Use SPDR tickers for reading signals; translate to UCITS tickers for any actual buy/sell orders.

CLI Integration

Step 1 — Pull MA Cross Trend Signals (All Sectors)

uv run trader strategies signals \
  --tickers XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,XLC \
  --strategy ma_cross

Parse output: for each ticker, note signal direction (bullish / bearish / neutral) and signal strength.

Step 2 — Sentiment Overlay (Per Sector ETF)

# Run for each sector ETF of interest, or the top/bottom 3 by signal strength
uv run trader news sentiment XLK --lookback 7d
uv run trader news sentiment XLE --lookback 7d
uv run trader news sentiment XLF --lookback 7d
uv run trader news sentiment XLV --lookback 7d
uv run trader news sentiment XLU --lookback 7d

Sentiment score: -1.0 (bearish) → +1.0 (bullish). Combine with trend signal to build conviction.

Step 3 — Market Breadth Check

# Benchmark ETF trends to anchor regime (signal reading only — not tradeable from EU account)
uv run trader strategies signals --tickers SPY,QQQ,IWM --strategy ma_cross
uv run trader strategies signals --tickers SPY,QQQ,IWM --strategy rsi
# Cross-check with EU-tradeable equivalents
uv run trader strategies signals --tickers CSPX,EQQQ,IWDA --strategy ma_cross

IWM (small caps) leading SPY = early-cycle signal. IWM lagging = late-cycle or risk-off. Use CSPX/EQQQ/IWDA signals if IBKR doesn't provide data on SPY/QQQ/IWM from EU account.

Step 4 — Individual Stock Confirmation (Optional)

# Spot-check leading stocks within a sector
uv run trader strategies signals --tickers NVDA,AMD,AVGO --strategy ma_cross  # XLK leaders
uv run trader strategies signals --tickers XOM,CVX,COP --strategy ma_cross    # XLE leaders

Uptrend Ratio and Risk Regime Scoring

Uptrend Ratio

Uptrend Ratio = (# sector ETFs with bullish MA cross signal) / 11

≥ 0.73 (8+/11) → Strong Bull
0.55–0.72 (6-7/11) → Moderate Bull
0.36–0.54 (4-5/11) → Transitional / Mixed
≤ 0.35 (0-3/11) → Risk-Off / Bear

Risk Regime Score (0–100)

Weighted composite:

Factor	Weight	Source
Uptrend ratio	40%	MA cross signals
Cyclical vs Defensive ratio	25%	XLK+XLF+XLE+XLI+XLY vs XLV+XLP+XLU
Benchmark breadth (SPY/QQQ/IWM)	20%	MA cross on benchmarks
Sentiment overlay	15%	news sentiment on sector ETFs

Score 70–100 → Risk-On: favor cyclicals (XLK, XLY, XLF, XLE)
Score 40–69  → Mixed: balanced exposure, watch for rotation signals
Score 0–39   → Risk-Off: favor defensives (XLV, XLP, XLU) or cash

Market Cycle Phases

Match uptrend ratio + cyclical/defensive pattern to phase:

Phase	Description	Leading Sectors	Lagging
Early Recovery	Rates falling, cyclicals waking	XLF, XLY, XLK	XLP, XLU
Mid Expansion	Broad uptrend, earnings-driven	XLK, XLI, XLB	XLU
Late Cycle	Narrowing leadership, inflation	XLE, XLB, XLI	XLY, XLK
Recession/Bear	Defensive rotation, falling breadth	XLV, XLP, XLU	XLE, XLY

5-Step Workflow

1. Signals — Run strategies signals on all 11 sector ETFs with ma_cross. Record bullish/bearish counts.
2. Sentiment — Run news sentiment on top 3 and bottom 3 ETFs by signal strength. Note divergences (strong trend signal + weak sentiment = possible turn).
3. Breadth — Check SPY/QQQ/IWM MA cross + RSI. Assign uptrend ratio and regime score.
4. Phase — Map readings to market cycle phase table. Note any conflicting signals.
5. Scenarios — Generate 2-4 scenarios:

Most Likely (50-65%): [e.g., "Mid-expansion continues — XLK/XLI overweight"]
  Confirms if: [specific trigger to watch]

Alternative (20-30%): [e.g., "Late-cycle rotation to XLE/XLB"]
  Confirms if: [specific trigger]

Tail Risk (5-15%): [e.g., "Breadth collapse, defensive shift"]
  Confirms if: [specific trigger]

Output Format

## Sector Analysis — [Date]

Risk Regime Score: [0-100] ([label])
Uptrend Ratio: [X/11] ([%])
Market Cycle Phase: [Phase]

### Sector Rankings (by MA Cross Signal Strength)
| Rank | ETF | Sector | Signal | Sentiment | Conviction |
|------|-----|--------|--------|-----------|------------|

### Cyclical vs Defensive Balance
Cyclical avg signal: [bullish/neutral/bearish]
Defensive avg signal: [bullish/neutral/bearish]

### Scenarios
[2-4 scenarios with probabilities]

### Recommended Positioning
[Overweight / Underweight / Avoid per sector]

Quick Reference

Task	Command
All sector trend signals	trader strategies signals --tickers XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,XLC --strategy ma_cross
Sector sentiment	trader news sentiment XLK --lookback 7d
Benchmark breadth	trader strategies signals --tickers SPY,QQQ,IWM --strategy ma_cross
Live sector prices	trader quotes get XLK XLF XLE XLV XLI

Common Mistakes

• Treating a single signal as a regime change — One sector flipping bearish is noise. Require at least 3 sectors to shift before calling a rotation.
• Ignoring sentiment divergence — A strong bullish MA cross + deeply negative sentiment score is a warning sign, not a confirmation.
• Confusing sector ETF moves with single stocks — XLK can be bullish while NVDA is in a correction. Always check the ETF as representative of the sector, not a proxy for top holdings.
• Skipping the benchmark check — Sector analysis is meaningless without knowing if SPY/QQQ are in uptrend. Always run Step 3.
• Assigning probabilities that don't sum to ~100% — Scenario probabilities must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.