kill-scale-rules

name	kill-scale-rules
description	Whether to kill or scale a campaign / ad set / creative. Covers kill thresholds with minimum-data guardrails and platform-specific scaling budget-step limits.

Kill Criteria & Scaling Rules

Most teams kill too early (acting on noise) or scale too aggressively (the algorithm can't keep up). These thresholds are calibrated so you act on signal, not noise.

Kill Criteria — minimum data required BEFORE killing

Timeframe	Kill if	Min data
24 hours	Hook rate < 15%	5K+ impressions
48 hours	CTR < 0.5%	2K+ impressions
3 days	CPA > 2x target	$50+ spend or 1K+ clicks
5 days	No conversions	3x target CPA in spend
7 days	CPA trending up 3 consecutive days	Statistically significant data
14 days	CPA 1.5x above target with no improvement	Full test cycle complete

Never kill before minimum data. Bad decisions from small samples cost more than the extra test spend. If a creative has 800 impressions and 2 clicks, you don't have enough signal to conclude anything — wait.

Scaling Rules

Condition	Action	Frequency
CPA < target for 48h	Increase budget 20%	Every 2-3 days
CPA < 50% of target for 72h	Increase budget 30-50%	Every 2 days
Winner holds after 3 increases	Duplicate to new audience	Once per winner
Creative at 100K impressions	Commission 3 variations	Immediately
CPA rises after budget increase	Revert to previous budget, wait 48h	As needed

Platform-specific budget step limits

• Meta: Max 30%/day budget increase. The algorithm needs recalibration time — bigger steps re-enter the learning phase and can wreck stable performance.
• Google PMax: Tolerates up to 50%/day.
• TikTok Smart+: Tolerates up to 50%/day.
• LinkedIn: Conservative — 20%/day is the safe ceiling.

When to revert

If CPA rises >25% within 48h of a budget increase, revert to the previous budget and wait 48h before trying again. The algorithm may need to re-stabilize. Repeated failed scaling attempts on the same creative usually mean the audience is saturated — duplicate to a new audience instead of pushing harder.

When to duplicate vs. when to scale in place

• Scale in place if the creative is still under its proven scaling ceiling and frequency is stable.
• Duplicate to a new audience if frequency is climbing or CPA rises after every budget step.
• Commission variations as soon as a creative crosses 100K impressions — fatigue is coming whether you can see it yet or not.

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