skill-040-target-cpa-roas-realism-check

name	skill-040-target-cpa-roas-realism-check
description	Verify that Target CPA and Target ROAS values are achievable based on historical performance.
allowed-tools	Read, Grep, Glob

Skill 040: Target CPA/ROAS Realism Check

Purpose

Unrealistic bidding targets cause significant issues: too aggressive targets lose auctions and volume drops; too conservative targets cause overspending and inefficiency. This skill validates whether current targets match historical performance and identifies campaigns where targets are limiting volume or wasting budget.

Data Requirements

Data Source: Standard

Standard Data:

• data/account/campaigns/*/campaign.md - Target CPA, Target ROAS settings
• data/account/bidding_strategies.md - Portfolio strategy targets
• data/performance/campaigns/*/campaign_metrics_30_days.md - Actual CPA, ROAS achieved

Reference GAQL:

SELECT
  campaign.id,
  campaign.name,
  campaign.bidding_strategy_type,
  campaign.target_cpa.target_cpa_micros,
  campaign.target_roas.target_roas,
  metrics.cost_micros,
  metrics.conversions,
  metrics.conversions_value,
  segments.date
FROM campaign
WHERE segments.date BETWEEN '{start_date}' AND '{end_date}'
  AND campaign.status = 'ENABLED'

Use /google-ads:get-custom for trend analysis over longer periods. Replace {start_date} and {end_date} with actual dates (e.g., 90-day window). Note: LAST_90_DAYS is not a valid GAQL date range; use BETWEEN with explicit dates instead.

Analysis Steps

1. Extract current targets: Target CPA or Target ROAS for each campaign
2. Calculate historical actuals: 30-day actual CPA/ROAS, 14-day trend, 7-day immediate trend
3. Compare targets vs actuals: Target within +/-10% = aligned, 20-30% below = aggressive, >30% below = unrealistic
4. Assess volume impact: Check budget utilization, declining conversions, stuck learning
5. Calculate recommended targets: Based on recent performance, weighted toward recent data

Thresholds

Condition	Severity
Target >30% below actual	Critical (unrealistic)
Budget utilization <50% + aggressive target	Critical
Target 20-30% below actual	Warning (aggressive)
Target >30% above actual	Warning (over-conservative)
Target within 10% of actual	Info (well-calibrated)

Output

Short (default):

## Target Realism Audit
**Account:** [Name] | **Campaigns with Targets:** [X] | **Misaligned:** [Y]

### Critical ([Count])
- **[Campaign]**: Target CPA $[X] vs actual $[Y] ([Z]% gap), [W]% budget used -> Increase to $[Rec]

### Warnings ([Count])
- **[Campaign]**: Target ROAS [X]% vs actual [Y]% -> Adjust to [Rec]%

### Target vs Actual
| Campaign | Target | 30d Actual | Variance | Budget Used | Status |
|----------|--------|------------|----------|-------------|--------|

### Recommendations
1. [Priority action with expected impact]

Detailed adds:

• Trend analysis (7d, 14d, 30d actuals)
• Budget utilization impact analysis
• Specific target adjustment recommendations with rationale