earnings-analyzer

name	earnings-analyzer
description	Run a JPMorgan-style pre-earnings analysis on a specific ticker. Use when the user asks about an upcoming earnings report, "should I hold through earnings?", "what's the expected move?", or names a stock and earnings in the same query. Fetches portfolio via aifolimizer MCP.

Earnings Analyzer (JPMorgan style)

Stage 0 - Decision Memory (load BEFORE forming any verdict)

Before fetching market data, load prior decisions on this ticker so the verdict stays consistent across sessions:

• mcp__aifolimizer__get_ticker_decision_history with ticker=TICKER, max_decisions=5 - prior actions, outcomes, reflections
• mcp__aifolimizer__get_ticker_reflection with symbol=TICKER, n=3 - prior recs + realized alpha
• mcp__aifolimizer__get_cross_ticker_lessons with max_lessons=3 - portfolio-level win/loss patterns

Reconciliation rule: if a prior decision exists and your new read flips it, state explicitly WHY it changed (new data / catalyst / price move). Never silently contradict a logged decision - that drift is exactly what this prevents.

How to run

1. Call mcp__aifolimizer__get_profile - account types and capital. Frame position sizing and tax impact of any pre-earnings trade
2. Confirm ticker via mcp__aifolimizer__get_portfolio (or use stock with nearest earnings from get_earnings_calendar)
3. Call mcp__aifolimizer__get_earnings_calendar - confirmed next earnings date and days until
4. Call mcp__aifolimizer__get_fundamentals with symbols=[ticker] - EPS TTM, analyst target price, analyst recommendation
5. Call mcp__aifolimizer__get_recent_filings with ticker=ticker, forms=["8-K"] - pre-earnings 8-K events (guidance preannounce, M&A, exec change) that reshape the setup. US-listed only
6. Call mcp__aifolimizer__get_finnhub_news with ticker=ticker - news sentiment tally heading into the print (positioning into the event)
7. Call mcp__aifolimizer__get_earnings_results with symbols=[ticker], quarters=4 - authoritative last-4-quarters EPS estimate/actual/surprise/beat-miss outcome. Do NOT WebSearch this; the MCP serves it.
8. WebSearch ONLY for what no MCP tool serves: options-implied move for earnings day (CBOE / broker IV), upcoming-quarter consensus EPS/revenue if absent from get_fundamentals, and qualitative management guidance from the last call.

Output structure

1. Last 4 quarters EPS vs consensus (beat/miss/meet) with price reactions
2. Upcoming quarter consensus EPS and revenue
3. Key metrics Wall Street is watching for this specific company
4. Segment revenue breakdown and recent trends
5. Management guidance summary from last call
6. Historical price reaction after each of last 4 earnings (% move + direction)
7. Bull case scenario - what beat looks like + price impact estimate
8. Bear case scenario - what miss looks like + downside estimate
9. Options-implied move for earnings day (search for recent IV)
10. Recommended play: Buy before / Trim before / Hold through / Wait for post-earnings dip

After output - log decision

Call mcp__aifolimizer__log_recommendation with action (BUY/HOLD/SELL/ADD/TRIM), conviction (HIGH/MED/LOW), target_pct + stop_pct (% from entry - the schema takes percentages, not absolute prices), rationale (1-line thesis citing the play: buy before / trim before / hold through / wait), skill="earnings-analyzer". Feeds forward win-rate / track-record loop.

If the play is BUY/ADD, first call mcp__aifolimizer__get_positioning_signals with symbols=[ticker]: if crowding_score >= 70 the name is consensus-crowded into the print (late entry = negative expected alpha) - downgrade conviction or defer the add to post-earnings. This is a lighter check than the swing skills since earnings is an event catalyst, but a crowded pre-print add is exactly the chase to avoid.

Rules

• Decision summary at very top (one paragraph)
• Full breakdown below
• Under 500 words
• Reference user's actual cost basis from portfolio data to frame recommendation

Gotchas

• get_earnings_calendar from yfinance can show next-FY date instead of next quarter for newly-listed or low-coverage tickers - sanity-check via WebSearch if days_until > 100.
• Options-implied move NOT in MCP - must come from WebSearch (CBOE / OptionStrat / broker IV). Never fabricate IV.
• Last-4-quarters EPS beat/miss comes from get_earnings_results (per-quarter estimate/actual/surprise/outcome) - do NOT WebSearch it. get_fundamentals carries only the current/next quarter. Only options-implied move and qualitative guidance need WebSearch.
• "Hold through earnings" is account-dependent: in non-reg account, early sell to lock gain triggers capital gains tax - call this out before recommending.
• Don't confuse forward EPS estimate with reported EPS - clearly label estimate vs actual.