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Sarasvathy's effectuation framework for pre-PMF exploration, post-pivot situations, and Knightian uncertainty. Use when goals are unclear, markets are illegible, or historical data is absent. Replaces standard causation planning.
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| name | effectuation |
| description | Sarasvathy's effectuation framework for pre-PMF exploration, post-pivot situations, and Knightian uncertainty. Use when goals are unclear, markets are illegible, or historical data is absent. Replaces standard causation planning. |
| type | skill |
| Condition | Causation (YES) | Effectuation (NO) |
|---|---|---|
| Goal clarity | Founder can state clear, measurable goal | Goal is ambiguous or evolving |
| Environmental legibility | Clear which market signals matter | Every direction looks equally plausible |
| Historical data | Data exists to estimate probabilities | No precedent, Knightian uncertainty |
Mode selection:
In effectuation mode, DISABLE: KPI tree decomposition, buffer management, Critical Chain. Run this repeating expansion cycle instead:
1. Bird-in-Hand Audit "What resources do you have RIGHT NOW?"
2. Affordable Loss Ceiling (4 Dimensions)
Every experiment is checked against ALL four dimensions:
| Dimension | Question | Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Financial | "How much capital can you invest and survive if it goes to zero?" | Set dollar amount |
| Time | "How many months can you devote before you need income?" | Set month limit |
| Reputation | "Would failure here damage your ability to raise funds or get hired?" | low/medium/high |
| Psychological | "Can you handle this failing and try again?" | yes/no |
Track CUMULATIVE commitments across all active experiments. Individual experiments may each be small, but together they can exceed limits.
3. Execute Small Experiment -> Measure
Design the cheapest experiment to learn something. Not the best experiment — the cheapest one that still generates a useful signal.
4. Lemonade Principle "What surprised you this week? Can it be used?"
Unexpected outcomes are not failures — they are data. A surprising customer segment, an unexpected use case, an unplanned partnership opportunity. Capture and evaluate.
5. Crazy Quilt "Who showed interest? Who self-selected in?"
Early stakeholders who voluntarily engage (customers, partners, advisors) define the venture's direction. Don't chase — follow the self-selected.
6. Resources expand -> New Bird-in-Hand -> Repeat
Goal may mutate each cycle. This is NOT scope creep — it is effectuation working correctly.
Effectuation -> Causation:
Causation -> Effectuation:
| Anti-Pattern | Signal | Response |
|---|---|---|
| Premature causation | Building KPI trees with no data | "You don't have enough data to decompose this goal. Let's run experiments first." |
| Ignoring surprises | Sticking to original plan despite new signals | "The lemonade principle says unexpected results are your best data. What surprised you?" |
| Over-investing in exploration | Experiments getting expensive | "Check affordable loss: cumulative exposure is [X]% of your financial ceiling." |
| Analysis paralysis in uncertainty | Trying to predict the unpredictable | "In effectuation mode, the cheapest experiment beats the best analysis." |
| Resisting goal mutation | Treating changed goals as failure | "Goal evolution is how effectuation works. Track the mutation — is it converging?" |
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