| name | growth-metrics |
| description | YC weekly growth benchmarks, T2D3 SaaS trajectory, compound projection formula, growth rate auto-calculation, North Star metric enforcement by business model, vanity metric detection, and metric definition lock. Use when tracking growth, setting targets, evaluating progress, or when the founder proposes a metric that may be misleading. |
| type | skill |
Growth Metrics & Benchmarks
When to Apply
- Setting or validating Goal metrics during onboarding
- Weekly growth tracking and projections
- When growth rate changes significantly
- When the founder proposes tracking a new metric
- When vanity metrics are suspected
Core Framework
YC Weekly Growth Benchmarks
| Weekly Growth | Assessment | Agent Behavior |
|---|
| < 1% | Critical | "Growth is flat. Fundamental rethink needed. Trigger WHY analysis." |
| 1-3% | Weak | "Below YC threshold. Prioritize growth experiments." |
| 3-5% | Moderate | "Directionally correct. Look for acceleration levers." |
| 5-7% | Good | "Strong growth. Maintain and compound." |
| 7%+ | Excellent | "YC-grade growth. Focus on sustainability." |
Growth rate auto-calculated from Goal metric history. Decline triggers automatic investigation.
T2D3 SaaS Trajectory
For B2B SaaS from $1M ARR:
Year 1: Triple -> $3M
Year 2: Triple -> $9M
Year 3: Double -> $18M
Year 4: Double -> $36M
Year 5: Double -> $72M
Track actual growth rate against this trajectory. Falling behind T2D3 in early years is a strong signal to investigate product-market fit.
Compound Projection Formula
Goal: 100 Paying Customers (Q2 end)
Current: 34 | Last week: 31 | Growth: +9.7%/week
Compound projection at current rate:
-> 4 weeks: 49 customers
-> 8 weeks: 72 customers
-> 12 weeks: 104 customers <- Goal achievable
Required weekly growth to hit Goal: +7.4%/week
Status: ON TRACK (current 9.7% > required 7.4%)
Auto-calculate and display projections at current rate vs required rate.
North Star Metric Enforcement
Auto-recommend by business model during onboarding:
| Business Model | Recommended North Star | Vanity Alternatives (reject) |
|---|
| B2B SaaS | MRR / Revenue | Signups, page views, registered users |
| Consumer app | DAU / WAU | Downloads, app installs, total accounts |
| Marketplace | GMV x take rate (net revenue) | Raw GMV, listing count |
| E-commerce | Revenue / order count | Website visitors, cart additions |
Vanity Metric Detection
If the founder sets their Goal metric to downloads, page views, signups, or other non-revenue/non-engagement proxies:
"This metric may not reflect real business progress. Consider [recommended metric] instead."
Detection signals:
- Metric has no direct connection to revenue or engagement
- Metric can grow while business health declines
- Metric is easy to inflate without creating real value
- Metric measures awareness, not conversion or retention
Metric Definition Lock
Once a KPI definition is agreed upon, changes require explicit justification:
"Changing metric definitions mid-cycle risks self-deception. If you proceed, a change log entry will be recorded."
Flag attempts to switch from WAU to MAU, from paid customers to "interested leads," or similar softening.
Decision Rules
- Revenue or engagement only — North Star must connect to real business outcomes
- Weekly cadence — growth tracking follows YC's weekly operating rhythm
- Compound projections always visible — show trajectory, not just current state
- Definition lock is enforced — metric changes require justification and are logged
- Benchmarks calibrate expectations — YC benchmarks and T2D3 are reference points, not hard rules
- Growth decline triggers investigation — any negative week triggers automatic scan
Anti-Patterns to Detect
| Anti-Pattern | Signal | Response |
|---|
| Vanity metric as North Star | Downloads, signups, page views as Goal | "This doesn't reflect real progress. Track [revenue/engagement] instead." |
| Metric switching | Changing definition mid-cycle | "Metric redefinition risks self-deception. Log change with justification." |
| Ignoring growth rate | Focus on absolute numbers only | "Absolute numbers matter less than growth rate. 10% weekly compounds to 142x annually." |
| Sandbagging | Goals exceeded by 200%+ consistently | "Goals may be too conservative. Growth compounds — aim higher." |
| Growth without unit economics | Celebrating growth with CAC > CLV | "Growth is negative-margin. Fix unit economics before celebrating." |
| T2D3 ignorance | No benchmark for SaaS trajectory | "At $[X] ARR, T2D3 expects [Y]x growth this year. You're at [Z]x." |
