baseline-dataset

name

baseline-dataset

description

Build a versioned baseline dataset (`just baseline-dataset <label>`) — five-phase orchestrator that runs a probe pass, an aggregate sweep, focal-cat traces, conditional weather variants, and a REPORT.md generation. Use when the user wants to lock in a new comparison baseline (the kind `just verdict` will read via `logs/baselines/current.json` or `just promote`). Trigger phrases — "build a versioned baseline", "rebuild the baseline dataset", "promote a new healthy baseline", "we need a fresh baseline against which to measure". Do NOT fire for — single-seed verification (use `just soak` + `just verdict`), one-off sweep work (use `just sweep`), drift checks against an existing baseline (use `just verdict` or `just sweep-stats --vs`).

Versioned Baseline Orchestrator (just baseline-dataset)

just baseline-dataset <LABEL> is the five-phase pipeline that produces a complete versioned-baseline directory under logs/baseline-<LABEL>/. Backgroundable: writes STATUS.txt + STATUS.json after every phase so external watchers can poll progress without parsing the run log.

When to fire

Fire when:

• User wants to lock in a new "healthy colony" baseline that future just verdict calls will compare against.
• After a substrate refactor or major balance change has settled and the old baseline is no longer representative.
• Quarterly or after a significant constants overhaul (cf. just rebuild-sensitivity-map cadence).

Do NOT fire when:

• User just wants one soak verified (just soak + just verdict).
• User wants treatment-vs-baseline drift on one constants change (just hypothesize).
• User wants to compare two existing sweeps (just sweep-stats --vs).
• Working tree is dirty without ALLOW_DIRTY=1 set — the orchestrator will hard-fail on the dirty check (this is intentional; baselines must be reproducible).

Output shape — directory tree, not JSON

baseline-dataset writes a structured directory under logs/baseline-<LABEL>/:

logs/baseline-<LABEL>/
├── STATUS.txt              ← human-readable progress (live-tailable)
├── STATUS.json             ← machine-readable progress mirror (poll without sed/awk)
├── rosters.json            ← Phase 1 probe output (per-seed cat rosters)
├── sweep/                  ← Phase 2: <SEEDS> × <REPS> × <DURATION> long soaks
│   └── <seed>-<rep>/
│       ├── events.jsonl
│       └── narrative.jsonl
├── trace/                  ← Phase 3: focal-cat traces (5 seeds × 2 focals × 900s)
│   └── <seed>-<focal>/
│       ├── events.jsonl
│       └── trace-<focal>.jsonl
├── conditional/            ← Phase 4: seed 42 × {fog, storm} × 900s
│   └── <variant>/
│       └── events.jsonl
├── canaries/               ← canary check outputs per phase
└── REPORT.md               ← Phase 5: aggregated summary

Phase completion is detected by the presence of a _footer line in events.jsonl. Re-invocation skips already-complete phases idempotently.

STATUS.json schema:

{
  "label": "2026-04-25",
  "started_at": "2026-04-25T08:14:00-04:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-04-25T09:42:11-04:00",
  "phase": "phase-2-sweep" | "phase-3-trace" | ... | "done",
  "state":  "running" | "complete" | "failed",
  "seeds": "42 99 7 2025 314",
  "reps": "3",
  "duration": "900",
  "parallel": "4",
  "allow_dirty": "0",
  "note": "<optional free-text>"
}

Exit codes: 0 success · 2 hard fail (dirty tree without ALLOW_DIRTY=1, cargo build failed, disk write failed). Survival/continuity canary regressions are recorded but do not halt the run — collect-everything failure mode.

Wall-clock cost

Default config (5 seeds × 3 reps × 900s + 5×2 focal traces × 900s + 2 conditional variants × 900s) ≈ 4–6 hours wall time at PARALLEL=4. Smoke first with SEEDS="42" REPS=1 DURATION=60.

Environment overrides (no flags — env-vars only)

Variable	Default	Purpose
SEEDS	"42 99 7 2025 314"	Whitespace-separated seed list.
REPS	3	Sweep reps per seed.
DURATION	900	Seconds per long soak.
PROBE_DURATION	60	Phase 1 smoke duration per seed.
PARALLEL	4	xargs concurrency for Phase 2/3.
ALLOW_DIRTY	0	Set 1 to permit commit_dirty=true headers (NOT for shipping baselines).
SKIP_PHASE_4	0	Set 1 to skip fog/storm conditional runs.
ROOT	logs	Output root (rare to override).

Examples

# Production baseline.
just baseline-dataset 2026-04-25

# Smoke test (≈ 4 min total).
SEEDS="42" REPS=1 DURATION=60 PROBE_DURATION=10 just baseline-dataset smoke

# Skip the conditional-weather phase (saves ~20 min).
SKIP_PHASE_4=1 just baseline-dataset 2026-04-25

# Resume a partial run — already-complete phases skip automatically.
just baseline-dataset 2026-04-25

After completion — the promote step

baseline-dataset does NOT activate the new baseline. After it completes, run:

just promote logs/baseline-<LABEL> <LABEL>

This writes logs/baselines/current.json pointing at the new directory; subsequent just verdict calls read that file to resolve the comparison baseline.

Polling progress

The STATUS.json mirror is designed for watch -n 5 jq '.phase, .state, .updated_at' logs/baseline-<LABEL>/STATUS.json — the run produces no other live signal. Phase 2/3 also produce per-run events.jsonl files that can be tailed individually.

Hook safety

logs/baseline-<LABEL>/ is protected by .Codex/hooks/no-log-overwrite.py. The orchestrator refuses to overwrite an existing baseline directory in the canonical path — rename or delete the old one first if you intend to rebuild under the same label.

Non-goals

• Does not run just verdict against the new baseline. Run it manually after promote to confirm the new baseline produces a clean verdict on a fresh seed-42 soak.
• Does not edit docs/balance/healthy-colony.md. The REPORT.md is informational; promoting healthy-colony fingerprint values is a separate manual edit.
• Does not commit anything. Baseline directories are git-ignored; the only artifact you commit is logs/baselines/current.json (after just promote).