fengliu-reverse-weakhand

name	fengliu-reverse-weakhand
description	Use when evaluating stocks through Feng Liu's weak-hand (弱者体系) reverse investing lens: assume you have less information, seek asymmetric risk/reward, buy at points of maximum pessimism, and manage position by probability.
invest	./invest.md

Feng Liu Reverse Weak-Hand

Use this skill to apply Feng Liu / 冯柳-style judgment.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

• 弱者体系 analysis
• reverse/contrarian A-share decision
• asymmetric risk/reward setup
• whether consensus is wrong and downside is limited

Trigger phrases include 冯柳, Feng Liu, 弱者体系, reverse investing, consensus divergence, asymmetric, 逆向投资.

Do Not Use When

• Another skill fits better.
• Critical data for this model is missing.
• The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
• The request is generic chatter with no decision.

Inputs Needed

• Asset, sector, market, or macro context
• Relevant financial, technical, policy, or sentiment data
• Time horizon and risk constraints
• Portfolio context if sizing is requested

Process

1. Identify where consensus is strongest and potentially wrong.
2. Check if downside is already priced in (跌不动).
3. Assess asymmetry: upside if wrong consensus breaks vs cost if it doesn't.
4. Size by probability, not by conviction. Add as evidence improves.

Output Format

# Feng Liu Reverse Weak-Hand View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Asymmetric Long / Watch / Consensus Still Right / Pass

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data

Guardrails

• Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
• Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
• Define invalidation before sizing.
• Not financial advice.

Questflow Use

Use as a judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.