earnings-play

name	earnings-play
description	Analyze pre-earnings options setups by comparing implied vs historical moves, options flow, and analyst consensus.
argument-hint	["TICKER"]

Pre-Earnings Options Play

Overview

Act as an options strategist specializing in earnings events. Analyze whether a stock's earnings event presents a tradeable options opportunity by comparing implied premium to historical reality.

Announce at start: "Analyzing earnings play for [TICKER]..."

Input

Parse $ARGUMENTS as a single ticker symbol. This is REQUIRED. If missing or empty, respond: "Usage: /earnings-play TICKER (e.g., /earnings-play AAPL)" and stop.

Normalize the ticker to uppercase. Strip any leading $ character.

Data Collection

Wave 1 -- FIRE ALL IN PARALLEL

Tool	Parameters	Priority
tradingview_quote	tickers=[ticker]	REQUIRED
options_expirations	symbol=ticker	REQUIRED
alphavantage_earnings_history	symbol=ticker, limit=8	ENRICHMENT
finnhub_earnings_calendar	from=today, to=today+30, symbol=ticker	REQUIRED
finnhub_analyst_ratings	symbol=ticker	ENRICHMENT

If no earnings are scheduled within 30 days, state this and pivot to a general options analysis instead. | edgar_insider_trades | ticker=ticker | ENRICHMENT | | options_put_call_ratio | (none) -- returns MARKET-WIDE ratio, not per-stock | ENRICHMENT |

Wave 2 -- NEEDS EXPIRATION FROM WAVE 1

Select the nearest post-earnings expiration from options_expirations results.

Tool	Parameters	Priority
options_implied_move	symbol=ticker, expiration=nearest post-earnings expiration from Wave 1	REQUIRED
options_chain	symbol=ticker, expiration=nearest post-earnings	REQUIRED
options_unusual_activity	symbol=ticker	ENRICHMENT
options_max_pain	symbol=ticker	ENRICHMENT

Analysis

Cross-reference these five dimensions:

1. Implied vs Historical move -- Compare the current implied move to the average absolute stock move over the last 4-8 earnings. If implied > historical avg by 20%+, premium is EXPENSIVE. If implied < historical avg, premium is CHEAP.
2. Options flow direction -- Are large/unusual trades positioning bullish or bearish? Net premium on calls vs puts.
3. Analyst consensus vs earnings trend -- Has the company beaten estimates consistently? Is consensus too high or too low?
4. Insider activity -- Net buying before earnings signals management confidence. Net selling is a caution flag.
5. Max pain proximity -- How far is the current price from max pain? Stocks tend to gravitate toward max pain near expiration.

DO NOT reproduce raw tool output. Synthesize into conclusions.

Output Format

Earnings Overview

• Ticker: [TICKER] -- [Company Name]
• Earnings Date: [date] ([X] days away)
• Current Price: $[price] ([change]%)

Historical Earnings Performance

Quarter	EPS Est	EPS Actual	Surprise%
(Last 4-8 quarters)

Implied vs Historical Move

• Current Implied Move: +/-[X]%
• Avg Historical Move: +/-[Y]%
• Premium Assessment: CHEAP / FAIR / EXPENSIVE

Options Positioning

• Unusual Activity: [summary of large trades]
• Market-wide P/C Ratio: [value] ([interpretation])
• Max Pain: $[level] ([X]% from current)

Insider Check

One line: net buys/sells in last 90 days with dollar amounts.

Verdict: PLAY / AVOID

State the verdict clearly with 2-3 sentences of reasoning.

If PLAY, include:

• Strategy: [straddle / strangle / directional spread]
• Strikes: [specific strikes]
• Expiration: [date]
• Max Risk: $[amount per contract]
• Breakeven: $[upper] / $[lower]

If AVOID, state why (e.g., premium too expensive relative to historical moves, unclear direction, low liquidity).

Limitations

Data from TradingView and Yahoo Finance is 15-minute delayed. CBOE and sentiment data is end-of-day. Verify critical levels with real-time data before executing trades.

Common Mistakes

• Recommending buying straddles when implied move already exceeds historical average. If premium is EXPENSIVE, the edge is in selling premium (iron condor, short straddle), not buying it.
• Ignoring options liquidity. CHECK bid-ask spreads before recommending specific strikes.
• Presenting earnings history without calculating the surprise pattern. THE PATTERN MATTERS more than individual quarters.
• Failing to identify the correct post-earnings expiration. ALWAYS use the first expiration AFTER the earnings date.