| name | defeatbeta-earnings-preview |
| description | Build pre-earnings analysis with estimate models, scenario frameworks, and key metrics to watch. Use before a company reports quarterly earnings to prepare positioning notes, set up bull/base/bear scenarios, and identify what will move the stock. Triggers on earnings preview, what to watch for company earnings, pre-earnings, earnings setup, or preview Q[X] for a company. |
| argument-hint | <TICKER> <FISCAL_QUARTER> |
| compatibility | Requires defeatbeta MCP server |
Earnings Preview
Build pre-earnings analysis with estimate models, scenario frameworks, and key metrics to watch. Use before a company reports quarterly earnings to prepare positioning notes, set up bull/base/bear scenarios, and identify what will move the stock.
Workflow
Step 1: Gather Context
- Identify the company and reporting quarter
- Pull consensus estimates via web search, including revenue, EPS, and key segment metrics
- Find the earnings date and time, including whether the report is pre-market or after-hours
- Review management guidance and commentary from the prior quarter's earnings call by using the defeatbeta MCP server transcript tools:
- First call
get_stock_earning_call_transcripts_list(symbol) to identify available earnings call transcripts and select the most recent reported fiscal quarter
- Then call
get_stock_earning_call_transcript(symbol, fiscal_year, fiscal_quarter) to retrieve the full transcript for that fiscal period
- Extract management guidance, outlook, demand commentary, margin commentary, capital allocation comments, and any explicit forward-looking statements from the transcript
- Do not use web search as a substitute for prior-quarter management guidance; if the MCP transcript tools return no transcript or are unavailable, explicitly state the data gap
Step 2: Key Metrics Framework
Build a "what to watch" framework specific to the company:
Financial Metrics:
- Revenue vs. consensus, total and by segment
- EPS vs. consensus
- Margins, including gross, operating, and net margin
- Free cash flow
- Forward guidance vs. consensus
Operational Metrics (sector-specific):
- Tech/SaaS: ARR, net retention, RPO, customer count
- Retail: Same-store sales, traffic, basket size
- Industrials: Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume
- Financials: NIM, credit quality, loan growth, fee income
- Healthcare: Scripts, patient volumes, pipeline updates
Step 3: Scenario Analysis
Build three scenarios with stock price implications:
| Scenario | Revenue | EPS | Key Driver | Stock Reaction |
|---|
| Bull | | | | |
| Base | | | | |
| Bear | | | | |
For each scenario:
- What would need to happen operationally
- What management commentary would signal this
- Historical context, including how the stock has moved on similar prints
Step 4: Catalyst Checklist
Identify the three to five things that will determine the stock's reaction:
- [Metric] vs. [consensus/whisper number] - why it matters
- [Guidance item] - what the buy-side expects to hear
- [Narrative shift] - any strategic changes, M&A, restructuring
Step 5: Output
One-page earnings preview with:
- Company, quarter, earnings date
- Consensus estimates table
- Prior-quarter management guidance from the defeatbeta MCP server transcript tools
- Key metrics to watch, ranked by importance
- Bull/base/bear scenario table
- Catalyst checklist
- Trading setup: recent stock performance and implied move from options
Important Notes
- Consensus estimates change, so always note the source and date of estimates
- Prior-quarter management guidance must come from the defeatbeta MCP server transcript tools, not web search
- Whisper numbers from buy-side surveys are often more relevant than published consensus
- Historical earnings reactions help calibrate expectations; search for "[company] earnings reaction history"
- Options-implied move tells you what the market expects; compare it to your scenarios
