us-election-watch

name	us-election-watch
description	Generate a daily Chinese-language US Election tracking report with a 5-indicator risk and momentum score.

US Election Watch

Purpose

Produce a daily, Chinese-language tracking report on the United States presidential election (and relevant downstream effects).

Hard requirements

1. Always verify with live sources before scoring.
2. Write the report in Chinese.
3. Every score must include both a reason and source references.
4. Follow the shared source policy in shared/source-policy.md.

Scoring rubric (0-2 per item)

Note: The score here measures Volatility / Election Tension, not necessarily who is winning.

1) 全国民调与支持率表

• 0 = 民调走势平稳，无显著黑天鹅
• 1 = 出现可见交叉或显著缩窄差距，引发焦虑
• 2 = 民调雪崩/急剧逆转，或选举计票存在巨大的系统性争议疑虑

2) 摇摆州动向表

• 0 = 摇摆州无异常变动
• 1 = 关键州局部争议（如邮寄选票、诉讼前哨战）或关键背书反转
• 2 = 决定性摇摆州爆出彻底改变选情的丑闻或计票停顿/违宪风波

3) 选战言论与丑闻表

• 0 = 正常的政策辩论和竞选广告
• 1 = 严重的人身攻击、候选人失言风波、初级法律诉讼
• 2 = 候选人遭遇刑事定罪重大转折、遭遇人身安全威胁或严重违宪指控

4) 竞选资金与动员表

• 0 = 筹款正常按进度推进
• 1 = 某方遭遇明显的超级 PAC 倒戈或筹款暴降/暴增
• 2 = 出现涉嫌严重违法的资金链断裂，或社会面出现暴力集会动员

5) 外部地缘/经济溢出表

• 0 = 对外经济数据（如CPI/就业）正常，地缘无干涉
• 1 = 非农/通胀意外恶化显著影响选情，或出现温和的“十月惊奇”
• 2 = 爆发重大战争/经济崩盘，或者出现实质性的外国选举干预实锤

Total score interpretation

• 0–3 = 🟢 绿色（选情稳定按部就班）
• 4–6 = 🟡 黄色（博弈极化进入焦灼）
• 7–10 = 🔴 红色（濒临宪政危机或极端撕裂）

File outputs

Report path: events/us-election/reports/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD.md Also update latest.md and index.json in the same directory.