ice-score

name	ice-score
description	Use to prioritize solutions or opportunities using ICE scoring with evidence-backed confidence.
metadata	{"instruction_budget":"35","framework_dependency":"mycelium","framework_dependency_note":"This skill is designed to run within the Mycelium framework (https://github.com/haabe/mycelium). Standalone use will skip the canvas state, theory gates, and harness behavior the skill assumes. Install: /plugin install mycelium@haabe/mycelium."}

ICE Score Skill

ICE scoring with integrated confidence meter.

Preflight: Read target canvas file(s) before any Write/Edit

Hard rule. Before issuing Write or Edit against any .claude/canvas/*.yml, use the Read tool on that file in this session. Claude Code's Read-before-Write check requires the Read tool specifically — cat/head/grep via Bash do NOT satisfy it.

Edit vs Write — different cost profiles (verified 2026-05-14):

• Edit (exact-string replacement): Read with limit: 1 satisfies the check at ~50 tokens. State-tracking is per-file, not per-byte — subsequent Edit calls work anywhere in the file. Use this for partial updates against large canvas files (e.g., purpose.yml at 800+ lines).
• Write (full replacement): do a full Read first. Write obliterates the file; you should see what you're about to replace. The limit:1 shortcut is not appropriate here.

ID-bearing entries — scan the ID space before assigning (added 2026-05-15, v0.23.19): When adding a new component, opportunity, solution, or any other ID-bearing entry to a canvas file, run a Bash grep first to confirm the next ID in your prefix sequence is actually free:

grep "^  - id: <prefix>-" .claude/canvas/<file>.yml | sort -u

Replace <prefix> with the canvas's ID prefix (comp for landscape, opp for opportunities, sol for solutions, ht for human-tasks, etc.). Then pick the next free integer. validate_canvas.py has a duplicate-ID check (lines 230-239) that catches the failure on CI, but a duplicate can persist in the working tree for days if CI isn't run between edit and discovery — see roadmap-repo corrections.md 2026-05-15 "Duplicate canvas ID created in landscape.yml" for the worked example.

Original failure mode: anti-pattern #7 instance #5, 2026-05-09 — agent conflated Bash head with the Read tool, lost ~14k tokens to a Write-fail → remedial-full-Read → re-Write loop. The limit:1 discipline (graduated 2026-05-14, v0.23.18) prevents the second-order cost where the agent correctly follows the rule but full-Reads every time. The ID-scan discipline (graduated 2026-05-15, v0.23.19) prevents the related class where the agent reads enough of the file to satisfy the Edit check but not enough to see existing ID assignments — kin to anti-pattern #8 (Stale State Read).

If this skill writes to multiple canvas files, register each one first (limit:1 for Edit-only paths; full Read for Write paths) AND ID-scan any prefix you intend to assign.

See CLAUDE.md Canvas writes — Read before Write for the canonical rule.

Workflow

ICE scoring is applied to OST solution leaves. Each leaf must have a Four Risks assessment (Torres Product Trio) before it can be scored — the risks are the inputs, ICE is the output.

Step 1: Verify Four Risks exist

For each solution leaf in .claude/canvas/opportunities.yml, check that four_risks has been assessed:

• Value (product lens): Do users want/need this?
• Usability (design lens): Can users figure it out?
• Feasibility (engineering lens): Can we build it within constraints?
• Viability (cross-cutting): Does it align with business/legal/ethical constraints?

If any risk dimension is missing, assess it first. Each dimension must have its own evidence — a single combined statement fails (Torres Product Trio rule).

Step 2: Derive ICE from the Four Risks

For each solution, score three dimensions (1-10):

Impact — derived from value + usability + viability risks:

• What does the value risk assessment say about user demand?
• What does the usability assessment say about adoption likelihood?
• What does the viability assessment say about business alignment?
• 1-3: Low value evidence, high usability risk, or poor viability fit
• 4-6: Moderate value evidence, some usability unknowns
• 7-10: Strong value evidence, low usability risk, clear viability

Confidence — how well-tested are the risk assessments?

Scale note: Mycelium uses 0.0-1.0. Gilad's original Confidence Meter uses 0-10 non-linear (0.01=opinion, 1=anecdotal, 5=market data, 8=A/B test, 10=launch data). The non-linear penalty is preserved through evidence-class weighting.

• 1-3: Risk assessments based on gut feel or desk research
• 4-6: Some direct evidence (interviews, analogues, small tests)
• 7-10: Strong evidence (user tests, prototypes, data). Requires test-validated evidence.

Ease — derived from feasibility risk:

• What does the engineering assessment say about complexity?
• What dependencies, unknowns, or technical spikes were identified?
• 1-3: High feasibility risk. Major unknowns, new capabilities needed.
• 4-6: Moderate feasibility risk. Known patterns, some complexity.
• 7-10: Low feasibility risk. Quick win, existing patterns.

Step 3: Calculate and rank

ICE = Impact x Confidence x Ease. Rank solution leaves by ICE score.

Step 4: Identify riskiest assumptions

For the top-ranked solutions, extract the highest-risk assumptions from the Four Risks assessment — these are what /mycelium:assumption-test should target first. Prioritize assumptions where importance is high but evidence is low.

Step 5: Bias check

Are high-scoring items benefiting from availability bias, IKEA effect, anchoring, or hyperbolic discounting (overweighting near-term Impact at the expense of longer-horizon outcomes)? Review for bias after scoring, before acting. Source for hyperbolic discounting: Laibson, "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting" (1997) — when the Impact dimension is rewarded for "what we can ship this sprint," delayed-payoff opportunities get systematically under-scored.

Output

| Solution | Value | Usability | Feasibility | Viability | I | C | E | ICE | Riskiest Assumption |
|----------|-------|-----------|-------------|-----------|---|---|---|-----|---------------------|
| ...      | risk  | risk      | risk        | risk      | X | X | X | XXX | [what to test]      |

Rules

• Every ICE score must trace back to a Four Risks assessment — no scoring without risk evaluation first.
• Each risk dimension must have separate evidence (Product Trio rule).
• Confidence of 7+ requires test-validated evidence, not analogy or assumption.
• If all items score similarly, the risk assessments need more depth.
• Review for bias after scoring, before acting.
• No OST leaf advances to selected without an ICE score. A solution leaf may be sketched without ICE while still a candidate. The moment it is picked up for delivery (cycle opens, diamond progresses Define→Develop with this leaf as the chosen solution), ice_score on the solution entry in opportunities.yml must be non-zero. This is what makes the calibration dimension measurable later — a cycle that ships without a prior ICE prediction is a permanent dark cell in cycle-history.yml. See engine/cycle-learning.md#cycle-class for how this propagates into cycle-history.yml.predicted.ice_score.

Canvas Output

Update .claude/canvas/opportunities.yml — write four_risks and ice_score per solution leaf. Update .claude/canvas/gist.yml with idea ICE scores and confidence levels.

Theory Citations

• Ellis: ICE scoring (Impact × Confidence × Ease — Sean Ellis invented the ICE framework as part of growth methodology)
• Gilad: Evidence-Guided (Confidence Meter — the evidence-grading layer on top of Ellis's ICE, mapping evidence types to confidence levels)
• Torres: Continuous Discovery Habits (OST leaves as unit of evaluation)
• Torres: Product Trio (three perspectives feeding risk assessment)
• Cagan: Inspired (Four Risks as structured evaluation)
• Kahneman: Thinking, Fast and Slow (bias in estimation)
• Kahneman, Sibony & Sunstein: Noise (2021) — unwanted variability in judgment (see Noise Check below)

Noise Check (Kahneman, Sibony & Sunstein, 2021)

ICE scores are susceptible to noise — unwanted variability where different sessions or assessors produce different scores for the same evidence. Unlike bias (systematic skew in one direction), noise is random scatter.

Detection: Re-score the same evidence independently (different session or assessor) and compare. If scores diverge by >1 point on any dimension, investigate why before proceeding.

Mitigation: Use structured assessment criteria (the Four Risks inputs above), apply scores independently before discussion, and anchor to evidence types rather than gut feel.

Noise audit procedure: Score the same evidence independently twice (different session or different assessor). If ICE scores diverge by >1 point on any dimension, the gap is noise — investigate the scoring criteria before proceeding. For solo developers: re-score after a 24h break to detect temporal noise.