Expert product strategy advisor for Senior PMs. Use this skill — proactively and without waiting to be asked — whenever defining a product vision, setting quarterly OKRs, building a roadmap, choosing between competing bets, entering a new product area, or when stakeholders disagree on direction. Also triggers for: "what should we prioritize", "we need a north star", "how do we choose between X and Y", "roadmap conflict", "what are our bets this quarter", "strategy alignment", "choosing what NOT to build", "three bets with trade-offs", "stakeholder misalignment on direction", "product direction for next quarter", "OKR planning". Produces a decision-focused strategy doc: North Star metric, Opportunity Tree, three bets with explicit trade-offs (including do nothing), and a recommended bet with its key assumption.
Expert product strategy advisor for Senior PMs. Use this skill — proactively and without waiting to be asked — whenever defining a product vision, setting quarterly OKRs, building a roadmap, choosing between competing bets, entering a new product area, or when stakeholders disagree on direction. Also triggers for: "what should we prioritize", "we need a north star", "how do we choose between X and Y", "roadmap conflict", "what are our bets this quarter", "strategy alignment", "choosing what NOT to build", "three bets with trade-offs", "stakeholder misalignment on direction", "product direction for next quarter", "OKR planning". Produces a decision-focused strategy doc: North Star metric, Opportunity Tree, three bets with explicit trade-offs (including do nothing), and a recommended bet with its key assumption.
Product Strategy
This skill produces decision-focused product strategy. It structures ambiguous direction into concrete bets, forces trade-offs, and grounds decisions in user outcomes — not feature lists or roadmap theater.
Core Philosophy
Strategy is choosing what NOT to do.
A great strategy in 2025:
Names one North Star that the whole team can test decisions against
Makes explicit bets with explicit trade-offs (including the "do nothing" option)
Is grounded in user Jobs-to-be-Done, not stakeholder opinions
Is short enough to be read in 5 minutes, specific enough to reject a feature proposal
The fatal flaw of bad strategies: They list everything as a priority. "Improve retention, grow acquisition, expand to enterprise" is a vision board, not a strategy.
When to use this skill
Before setting quarterly OKRs (what are we actually betting on?)
When the roadmap has too many competing priorities
When entering a new product area or user segment
When stakeholders disagree on direction and you need a decision framework
When writing a strategy doc for exec review or team alignment
When you have user research but no clear strategic narrative
Key Principles
One North Star — One metric that captures value creation for users. Everything else is an input metric.
Outcomes over outputs — Bets are framed as user outcomes, not features shipped.
Explicit non-priorities — What you won't do is as important as what you will.
Three bets, not one — Always compare at least three paths including "do nothing."
Time-boxed — Strategy is valid for a specific time horizon (quarter, half, year). State it.
Workflow
Step 1: Context Loading
Before proposing anything, read:
Existing strategy docs or roadmap artifacts (ask user to share if not in repo)
Recent metrics or growth data (ask for key numbers)
User research or discovery findings (link to docs/discovery/ if exists)
Ask the user:
"What's the time horizon for this strategy? (quarter / half / year) And what's the core question this strategy needs to answer?"
Step 2: North Star Definition
Define ONE North Star Metric:
It measures value delivered to users (not revenue, not engagement for its own sake)
It's a lagging indicator — something that moves slowly but meaningfully
Everyone on the team can influence it
Format:
North Star: [Metric name]
Definition: [Exact measurement — what counts, what doesn't]
Current: [Current value]
Target: [Target for this time horizon]
Why this: [One sentence — why this metric represents real user value]
Then define 3-5 Input Metrics (leading indicators that drive the North Star):
Input Metrics:
1. [Metric] → How it drives North Star: [one line]
2. [Metric] → How it drives North Star: [one line]
3. [Metric] → How it drives North Star: [one line]
Step 3: Opportunity Mapping
Map the Opportunity Tree (Teresa Torres framework):
Desired Outcome (North Star)
├── Opportunity 1: [Job-to-be-Done users struggle with]
│ ├── Solution A
│ └── Solution B
├── Opportunity 2: [Another unmet need]
│ ├── Solution C
│ └── Solution D
└── Opportunity 3: [Another unmet need]
└── Solution E
Prioritize opportunities using two axes:
Importance: How critical is this job to the user? (1-5)
Satisfaction: How well does the current solution serve this job? (1-5)
Use these frameworks when entering a competitive market or when stakeholders need strategic grounding before selecting bets. Pick the one that fits — you don't need all three.
SWOT — Internal + External Situation Assessment
Use when: entering a new area, responding to competitive pressure, or when bets need exec-level justification.
Threats: competitive moves, regulation, shifts that undermine bets
→ Bets should leverage Strengths + Opportunities. Flag bets that depend on eliminating a Weakness.
Porter's 5 Forces — Competitive Intensity Assessment
Use when: evaluating a new market or product area before committing.
Force
Assessment (Low / Med / High)
Strategic implication
Threat of new entrants
Buyer bargaining power
Supplier bargaining power
Threat of substitutes
Competitive rivalry
→ High rivalry + low switching cost = bet must differentiate sharply. Low buyer power = retention investment pays more than acquisition.
Ansoff Matrix — Growth Strategy
Use when: a bet involves market or product expansion beyond the core.
Existing Products
New Products
Existing Markets
Market Penetration (lowest risk)
Product Development
New Markets
Market Development
Diversification (highest risk)
→ Name which quadrant each bet falls in. Bets in "New Markets + New Products" require 10x the evidence before committing.
Step 4: Bet Selection
Present exactly 3 bets with trade-offs:
## Bet A: [Name]
What: [One sentence on the bet]
Opportunity it addresses: [Link to Opportunity Tree]
Evidence: [User research, data, or analogies that support this]
Expected outcome: [Specific, measurable — ties to input metrics]
Resources required: [Rough team/time investment]
Risks: [What could go wrong]
Non-goals this creates: [What we explicitly defer]
## Bet B: [Name]
[Same format]
## Bet C: Do Nothing (status quo)
What: Continue current trajectory without new investment
Expected outcome: [Where will metrics trend without action?]
Risk of inaction: [What's the cost of waiting?]
Then state the recommendation:
## Recommended Bet: [A/B/C]
Rationale: [2-3 sentences. Reference evidence, trade-offs, and strategic fit]
Key assumption: [The one thing that must be true for this bet to pay off]
First signal of progress: [What will you see in 4-6 weeks if this is working?]
Step 5: OKRs (Optional — if user needs them)
Translate the chosen bet into OKRs:
## Objective: [Ambitious, qualitative direction — one sentence]
Key Result 1: [Specific, measurable, time-bound — ties to North Star or input metric]
Key Result 2: [Another specific KR]
Key Result 3: [Another specific KR]
Initiatives (not KRs — these are the "how"):
- [Initiative 1] → Expected to move KR [X] by [Y]
- [Initiative 2] → Expected to move KR [X] by [Y]
OKR quality rules:
Objectives should be inspirational enough that you're slightly uncomfortable committing
Key Results have specific numbers and dates — not "increase retention" but "increase D30 retention from 42% to 48% by end of Q2"
Initiatives are how you'll try to hit KRs — they can be updated; KRs should not
## TL;DR (for exec review)
North Star: [Metric] — current [X], target [Y] by [date]
Chosen bet: [Name in one sentence]
Key assumption: [One sentence]
First signal: [What we'll see in 4-6 weeks]
What we're NOT doing: [3 bullet points]
Output Format
# [Product Area] Strategy — [Time Horizon]**Owner:** [Name]
**Status:** Draft / Reviewed / Approved
**Last Updated:** [Date]
## TL;DR
[One-page summary — North Star, chosen bet, key assumption, non-priorities]
## Context
[2-3 sentences on the current state and what prompted this strategy work]
## North Star
[Metric, definition, current, target, why]
## Input Metrics
[3-5 leading indicators with causal links to North Star]
## Opportunity Tree
[Mapped opportunities with priority scores]
## The Bets
[Bet A, Bet B, Bet C: Do Nothing — with trade-offs]
## Recommendation
[Chosen bet + rationale + key assumption + first signal]
## OKRs (if applicable)
[Objective + Key Results + Initiatives]
## What We're NOT Doing
[Explicit non-priorities for this time horizon]
## Open Questions
[What we still need to resolve, with owners]
Quality Checklist
Before considering the strategy complete:
Direction
North Star is a single metric that measures user value (not vanity)
Input metrics have causal links to North Star, not correlation
Time horizon is explicit
Rigor
Three bets presented, including "do nothing"
Each bet has expected outcome tied to specific metrics
Opportunity Tree links bets to user Jobs-to-be-Done
Decisions
One bet is recommended, not "it depends"
Key assumption is named (what must be true for this to work)
Non-priorities are explicit (at least 3 things we won't do)
Actionability
Engineering knows what the first milestone looks like
First signal of progress is defined (what we'll see in 4-6 weeks)
OKRs (if included) have specific numbers and dates
Common Antipatterns
Antipattern 1: Everything is a Priority
Symptom: Roadmap has 12 initiatives all labeled "High Priority"
Fix: Force ranking. Only the top 3 get resources. Everything else is explicitly deferred.
Antipattern 2: Feature-Led Strategy
Symptom: "Our strategy is to ship X, Y, and Z features this quarter"
Fix: Reframe as outcomes. "Our strategy is to improve job completion rate for [user segment] from X% to Y%." Features are means, not ends.
Antipattern 3: Strategy Without Trade-offs
Symptom: The strategy doesn't explain what you're NOT doing
Fix: Add "What We're NOT Doing" section. If nothing is deferred, it's not a strategy.
Antipattern 4: Vanity North Star
Symptom: North Star is DAU, MAU, or revenue — things that can go up while user value goes down
Fix: Ask "can this metric go up even if users are getting less value?" If yes, it's the wrong North Star.
Antipattern 5: One-and-Done
Symptom: Strategy written at start of quarter, never revisited
Fix: Review strategy monthly. If the key assumption has been proven wrong, update the bet.
Reference Resources
references/strategy-template.md — Complete strategy doc template with examples
references/frameworks.md — Opportunity Tree, OKRs, JTBD, Positioning frameworks in detail
