메뉴
Use when tempted to predict, analyze, or debate whether something will work instead of testing it. When facing uncertainty about a decision, product, hire, or opportunity and relying on gut feeling or expert opinions.
Codex 또는 Claude로 설치 이 Prompt를 복사해 Codex, Claude 또는 다른 어시스턴트에 붙여 넣으면 Skill 페이지를 검토하고 설치를 진행할 수 있습니다.
SOC 직업 분류 기준
| name | reality-testing-decisions |
| description | Use when tempted to predict, analyze, or debate whether something will work instead of testing it. When facing uncertainty about a decision, product, hire, or opportunity and relying on gut feeling or expert opinions. |
把"这个会不会成功？"的预测问题，转化为"怎么用最小成本验证？"的实验问题。
核心前提：我们对自己预测未来的能力严重高估。不要猜，不要感觉，去测试。
Tetlock 收集了 82361 个专家预测，结论：专家预测不如基本比率（用历史平均值外推），而基本比率又不如小规模实验。
额外的教育、20年经验、博士学位——都不能提高预测精度。反而，媒体曝光度越高的专家，预测越不准。
基本比率的力量：共同基金 vs 指数基金——基本比率数据如此清晰，以至于选共同基金几乎必然让你退休时更穷。当基本比率足够明确时，直接用它，不需要再做实验。
结论：只要有可能，就应该完全避免预测，用实验代替。
把当前的问题写出来。如果它的形式是：
这就是在预测。继续下一步。
问：用什么最小行动，可以在现实中得到反馈？
不同场景的实验设计：
产品/项目验证
招聘/合作
职业/方向选择
大家都觉得不靠谱的想法
创业验证
强迫症律师佩吉的 7 步实验——当你觉得"万一出错怎么办"时，把实验拆得更小：
结果：没有公司败诉，没有人被解雇，甚至没有人注意到错误。
原理：每完成一步，你就获得了真实数据，而不是继续在脑子里预测"天会不会塌"。
实验不是拖延的借口。两种情况要区分：
如果你已经确定了方向，小步尝试就是拖延。
场景：考虑做一个新产品
场景：考虑招一个人
场景：考虑转行
把一本书拆解成 Claude Code 可执行的 Skill。当用户说"拆书"、"把这本书变成 Skill"、"book to skill"、"extract skill from book" 时触发。
Use when committing resources to a project, investment, or relationship. When feeling the pull of sunk cost. When a plan has no defined exit criteria. When you catch yourself thinking "let's wait and see what happens."
Use when facing a significant decision, evaluating options, or feeling stuck between choices. Especially when the decision is high-stakes, irreversible, or involves uncertainty about outcomes. Triggers on phrases like "should I", "I don't know whether to", "I'm torn between", or "help me decide".
Use when a decision feels obvious or everyone agrees, when evaluating omeone's proposal or pitch, when in a team debate that's going nowhere, or when you suspect confirmation bias in your own thinking.
This skill should be used when the user asks to "create a team", "create agent team", "蜂群", "swarm", "团队协作", "parallel agents", "spawn teammates", "多 agent 协作", "组建团队", or executes "/swarm". Analyzes user tasks, designs optimal team structure (roles, count, prompts), presents plan for confirmation, then orchestrates team execution.
