polymarket-analyzer

name	polymarket-analyzer
description	Analyze Polymarket prediction market data to provide investment insights for Chinese concept stocks (中概股) and A-shares. This skill should be used when the user asks about Polymarket data, prediction markets, A-share (A股) investment advice based on prediction market sentiment, or 中概股 correlations.

Polymarket + Multi-Source China Market Sentiment Analyzer

Collect data from multiple information channels to support comprehensive sentiment analysis for Chinese concept stocks (中概股) and A-shares.

The agent performs all judgment and interpretation. The scripts in this skill are pure data collectors — they fetch raw information without making directional calls.

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When to Use

• The user asks about Polymarket prediction market data for China/HK topics
• The user wants sentiment context for A-share or 中概股 investment decisions
• The user requests multi-source market intelligence (news, macro, market proxies)
• The user asks about specific stocks: BYD, NIO, Alibaba, Tencent, SMIC, etc.

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Prerequisites

Polymarket CLI (required for prediction market data)

brew tap Polymarket/polymarket-cli https://github.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli
brew install polymarket
# or
curl -sSL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli/main/install.sh | sh
polymarket --version

yfinance (optional — enables market proxy data)

pip install yfinance

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Skill Structure

polymarket-analyzer/
├── SKILL.md
├── references/
│   ├── china_stock_mapping.json        # 21 China concept stocks → A-share sector/ticker mapping
│   ├── signal_weights.json             # Configurable source weights for composite analyzer
│   ├── workflows/
│   │   ├── scenario-1-macro-geopolitical.md  # Top-down macro & geopolitical risk workflow
│   │   ├── scenario-2-sector-catalyst.md     # Bottom-up sector/company catalyst workflow
│   │   └── scenario-3-daily-pulse.md         # Fast daily digest / delta-only briefing
│   └── templates/
│       ├── comprehensive-insight-report.md   # Full deep-dive report template (Scenarios 1 & 2)
│       └── quick-brief.md                    # 30-second pulse template (Scenario 3)
└── scripts/
    ├── polymarket_analyzer.py     # Full 7-source composite analyzer
    ├── query-markets.py           # Polymarket search — active markets only by default
    ├── filter-markets.py          # Polymarket multi-filter — active markets only by default
    ├── fetch-market-data.py       # Raw price/volume for China proxy instruments
    └── fetch-cn-news.py           # Raw headlines from Chinese domestic + global sources

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Information Channels

Channel 1 — Polymarket Prediction Markets

Scripts: scripts/query-markets.py, scripts/filter-markets.py

Real-money crowd probabilities on macro, geopolitical, and corporate events. Best for tail risks such as Taiwan conflict, trade war escalation, and rate decisions.

Channel 2 — Financial Market Proxies

Script: scripts/fetch-market-data.py

Raw daily price and volume data for 11 China-sensitive instruments:

Ticker	Instrument	Relevance
FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	Direct China equity sentiment
KWEB	KraneShares China Internet ETF	China tech/internet
^HSI	Hang Seng Index	HK market
HG=F	Copper Futures	China industrial demand
AUDUSD=X	AUD/USD	China commodities activity
CNY=X	USD/CNY	Renminbi strength
^VIX	CBOE Volatility Index	Global risk appetite
GC=F	Gold Futures	Safe-haven demand
^TNX	US 10-yr Treasury Yield	US rate pressure on EM
EEM	iShares Emerging Markets ETF	EM flow proxy
UUP	US Dollar Index ETF	USD strength

Channel 3 — Chinese Domestic Financial News

Script: scripts/fetch-cn-news.py

Raw headlines from domestic Chinese financial media:

Source ID	Name	Coverage
caixin	财新 Caixin Global	Investigative finance/economy (EN+ZH)
sina_finance	新浪财经	Breaking A-share news, policy
yicai	第一财经	Macro, banking, real estate
eastmoney	东方财富	Retail investor hot topics
stcn	证券时报	Regulatory / official securities news
21cbh	21世纪经济报道	Industry deep dives
xinhua_finance	新华财经	State macro/policy announcements

Channel 4 — Global / HK China-Focused News

Script: scripts/fetch-cn-news.py (same script, global sources)

Source ID	Name	Coverage
reuters_china	Reuters China	Breaking, macro, corporate
scmp	South China Morning Post	HK/Greater China business
ft_china	Financial Times China	Western institutional view
nikkei_china	Nikkei Asia China	Japan/Asia regional perspective
xinhua_en	Xinhua English	Official Chinese government narrative

Channels 5–7 — Embedded in Composite Analyzer

Invoked automatically by scripts/polymarket_analyzer.py:

• CNN Fear & Greed Index — US market psychology; extreme readings affect EM risk appetite
• Reddit Social Sentiment — r/investing, r/wallstreetbets, r/china, r/ChineseStocks, r/emergingmarkets
• World Bank Macro — China GDP, CPI, export growth, FDI, US real interest rate

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Scripts Usage

scripts/query-markets.py — Polymarket raw search

Returns active markets only by default. Use --all to include closed/resolved markets.

python3 scripts/query-markets.py "china"
python3 scripts/query-markets.py "taiwan" --limit 100 --format json
python3 scripts/query-markets.py "byd" --limit 50
python3 scripts/query-markets.py "pboc rate"
# Include resolved markets (for historical analysis only):
python3 scripts/query-markets.py "taiwan" --limit 100 --format json --all

scripts/filter-markets.py — Polymarket multi-filter

Defaults to --status active. Use --status closed or --status all to override.

python3 scripts/filter-markets.py --keywords taiwan,invasion --volume 100000
python3 scripts/filter-markets.py --keywords byd,nio,xpeng,alibaba,tencent
python3 scripts/filter-markets.py --status active --volume 50000 --format json
# Closed markets (historical reference only):
python3 scripts/filter-markets.py --keywords taiwan --status closed --format json

scripts/fetch-market-data.py — Market proxy raw data

python3 scripts/fetch-market-data.py
python3 scripts/fetch-market-data.py --format json
python3 scripts/fetch-market-data.py --period 30d
python3 scripts/fetch-market-data.py --tickers "FXI KWEB ^VIX"

scripts/fetch-cn-news.py — China news raw headlines

python3 scripts/fetch-cn-news.py
python3 scripts/fetch-cn-news.py --format json --limit 20
python3 scripts/fetch-cn-news.py --source caixin --limit 30
python3 scripts/fetch-cn-news.py --source caixin,scmp

scripts/polymarket_analyzer.py — Full composite run

Executes all seven channels and prints a structured report:

python3 scripts/polymarket_analyzer.py

Channels unavailable at runtime degrade gracefully with no crash.

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Analysis Workflows & Scenarios

Three scenario-specific workflows are defined in references/workflows/. Each workflow applies First Principles Thinking — defining a hypothesis first, then fetching only the data needed to test it.

Scenario	File	Use When
1. Macro & Geopolitical Risk (Top-Down)	references/workflows/scenario-1-macro-geopolitical.md	Taiwan, tariffs, PBOC, elections, USD/CNY stress
2. Sector-Specific Catalyst (Bottom-Up)	references/workflows/scenario-2-sector-catalyst.md	EVs, Semiconductors, Property, Internet, specific companies
3. Daily Market Pulse / Fast Digest	references/workflows/scenario-3-daily-pulse.md	Pre-market briefing, end-of-day delta check

Core Analytical Principles (applied in all scenarios)

1. Liquidity Weighting: Polymarket odds mean nothing without volume. Verify pool size. A 90% probability with $500 volume is noise; with $5M volume, it's a signal.
2. Divergence Detection: The most profitable insights stem from discrepancies between explicit prediction market odds and implicit market proxy pricing.
3. Probability Momentum: Focus on the delta (change over time). A contract moving from 10% to 30% in two days is highly actionable.
4. Active Markets Only (Data Collection): Scripts default to active-only. Never treat a closed/resolved contract as a current signal.
5. Historical Context (Mandatory): Always compare the current PM probability against: (a) the trend of the last 7–30 days for this specific contract, and (b) how analogous resolved contracts priced and resolved historically. A probability without a trend is not a signal — it is a datapoint. Use --all to retrieve resolved contracts for comparison.
6. Conflict-First Analysis: When any two sources disagree, the conflict itself is the most important finding in the report. Explain the conflict and its likely cause before forming any directional thesis. A thesis built by ignoring a conflict is not a thesis — it is wishful reasoning.
7. Multi-Source Minimum: A directional conclusion requires ≥2 independent channels in agreement. Single-source signals must be labeled "Unconfirmed — Watch Only." State explicitly which channels confirm and which dissent.

Accumulated Experience

Before running any analysis, check EXPERIENCE.md for relevant prior observations:

• Source reliability notes calibrated from past sessions
• Known false signal patterns (e.g., sectors where PM historically misprices)
• Conflict resolution examples from past analyses
• User feedback on conviction thresholds

After the user provides feedback on analysis quality or outcome accuracy, append a new entry to EXPERIENCE.md using the format defined in that file.

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Standardized Output Templates

Two templates are defined in references/templates/. Always use the appropriate template when generating a response.

Template	File	Use When
A: Comprehensive Investment Insight Report	references/templates/comprehensive-insight-report.md	Full analysis from Scenario 1 or 2; includes confidence score, proxy confirmation table, source attribution, and data provenance
B: Quick Brief	references/templates/quick-brief.md	Daily pulse (Scenario 3) or when user needs a rapid digest; ALERT / WATCH / No-Change triage format

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References

references/china_stock_mapping.json

Maps 21 China concept stocks to A-share sectors, tickers, supply chain names, HK listings, and correlation coefficients. Companies covered: BYD, NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, Xiaomi, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Meituan, NetEase, Kuaishou, Bilibili, SMIC, Huawei supply chain, Evergrande, Anta, Haier, Midea, Foxconn. Also includes macro factor mappings for: PBOC rate cuts, US-China trade war, Taiwan tensions, China stimulus.

references/signal_weights.json

Configurable source weights for the composite analyzer. Four profiles:

Profile	Description
default	Polymarket 35%, market_data 25%, news 20%, fear_greed 10%, …
news_heavy	Elevates news to 35% when Polymarket coverage is thin
market_only	90% weight on market proxies only
sentiment_focus	Emphasis on social + Fear & Greed for retail sentiment reads

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A-share Sector Quick Reference

Market Signal	A-share Sector	Key Tickers
EV sales / BYD / NIO	New Energy + Battery	BYD 002594.SZ, CATL 300750.SZ
Taiwan tensions	Defense	AVIC 600893.SH, CSGC 000768.SZ
US chip restrictions	Semiconductor localization	SMIC 688981.SH, Hua Hong 688347.SH
Trade war / tariffs	Export manufacturing	Luxshare 002475.SZ, Hisense 600060.SH
PBOC rate cut	Banks + Real estate	ICBC 601398.SH, Vanke 000002.SZ
China stimulus	Infrastructure	CRCC 601186.SH, CREC 601390.SH
Copper surge	Industrial metals	Jiangxi Copper 600362.SH

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Troubleshooting

Polymarket CLI not found

export PATH="$PATH:$HOME/.cargo/bin:$HOME/.local/bin"

yfinance not installed — fetch-market-data.py will print an error and exit cleanly; all other channels still work.

Chinese news sources unreachable — Some domestic RSS feeds block non-CN IPs. Use a HK/mainland proxy, or focus on: caixin, reuters_china, scmp, xinhua_en.