murphyjitsu

name

murphyjitsu

description

CFAR rationality technique for bulletproofing plans by systematically imagining failure modes and creating defenses. Combines Murphy's Law with pre-mortem analysis. Use when the user: (1) has a plan they want to stress-test, (2) wants to identify what could go wrong before it does, (3) needs to build a more robust plan, (4) wants to practice pre-mortem thinking, or (5) is about to start a project and wants to anticipate obstacles. Triggers: "murphyjitsu", "what could go wrong", "pre-mortem", "stress test my plan", "inner simulator", "surprise-o-meter", "failure modes", "plan review", "CFAR".

Murphyjitsu (Inner Simulator)

A CFAR technique for bulletproofing plans by deliberately imagining failure, identifying the most likely failure modes, and creating defenses. Named after Murphy's Law + martial arts ("jitsu").

Three Modes

1. Design Mode — Help create a robust plan with failure modes already addressed
2. Practice Mode — Walk through the technique on a practice plan to build skill
3. Execute Mode — Stress-test a real plan the user is about to implement

Core Algorithm

1. State a concrete plan
2. Imagine: "It's the day after. The plan failed. What happened?"
3. Check the surprise-o-meter
4. If genuinely shocked → done
5. Otherwise → identify the most likely failure mode
6. Create a defense against it
7. Go to step 2

The Surprise-o-Meter

After imagining failure, assess how surprised you'd be:

• "Yeah, sounds right" → Keep iterating. You have known failure modes.
• "Somewhat surprised" → Getting close. Address remaining risks.
• "Genuinely shocked" → Your inner simulator endorses the plan. Stop here.

The technique continues until you'd be genuinely shocked to see the plan fail.

Step-by-Step Facilitation

1. Articulate the Plan

"What's your concrete plan? What specific actions, in what order, by when?" Ensure the plan is concrete enough to simulate. Vague goals can't be Murphyjitsued.

2. Initial Simulation

"Imagine you've executed this plan and suddenly realize it failed. Oh no — why? What happened?" Don't answer from analysis. Let intuition respond. The first answer is often most accurate.

3. Identify the Failure Mode

"What's the most likely way this goes wrong?" "If you had to bet money on what would derail this, what would you say?"

4. Create the Defense

"What action or preparation would prevent this failure mode?" Defenses should be: specific, actionable, low-cost, and preventive.

5. Re-simulate

"Now imagine the plan WITH this defense. It still failed. What happened this time?" Repeat until the surprise-o-meter reads "shocked."

Key Insight: Outside View Correction

Your inner simulator is better at predicting OTHER people's failures than your own. Correction: "Take your plan and imagine another person made it. How would it likely fail for them?"

Facilitation Prompts

Opening: "Tell me your plan. Be specific — what exactly will you do and when?"

Simulation: "Close your eyes. It's [deadline day]. The plan didn't work. What went wrong?"

Probing: "What's the single most likely failure point?" / "What have you seen go wrong in similar situations?"

Defense: "What's the simplest thing you could do to prevent that?" / "What would someone who's done this before do differently?"

Calibration: "If I told you the plan failed, how surprised would you be — genuinely shocked, or just disappointed?"

Common Failure Modes of the Technique

• Self-bias: Your inner sim is optimistic about your own plans. Use outside view.
• Unpredictable domains: Works best for tactical, near-term plans. Less useful for existential life questions.
• Unrealistic expectations: No plan is foolproof. Goal is "shocked if it fails," not "impossible to fail."
• Emotional failure modes: Murphyjitsu handles logistical failures well but may miss motivation loss. Combine with IDC.

Practice Exercise

1. Pick an upcoming plan (meeting, project, event)
2. Run 3-5 failure simulation cycles
3. Write down each failure mode and its defense
4. After 5 minutes: "Would you be genuinely shocked if this failed now?"
5. If not, continue. If yes, commit to the plan with defenses.

Integration

• Goal Factoring: Factor goals first, then Murphyjitsu the plan
• TAPs: Create TAPs for implementing the defenses
• Resolve Cycles: If Murphyjitsu reveals the plan is fundamentally broken, do a 5-minute Resolve Cycle to find a better approach