data-analysis

name	data-analysis
description	Exploratory data analysis patterns -- profiling, distributions, correlations, segmentation, anomaly detection, and translating statistics into narrative insights
tier	standard
applyTo	**/*analy*,**/*eda*,**/*profile*,**/*statistic*,**/*correlat*,**/*outlier*

Data Analysis

Property	Value
Domain	Data Analytics
Category	Analysis & Insight Extraction
Trifecta	SKILL.md + data-analysis.instructions.md + analyze.prompt.md
Depends	data-visualization (chart output), data-ingest.cjs (ingestion)

Overview

Turn raw data into actionable insight statements. This skill covers the full EDA pipeline: profiling the dataset, exploring distributions, finding correlations, detecting anomalies, and -- critically -- translating statistical findings into business-language narratives tagged with story intents for downstream visualization.

The cardinal rule: statistics are not insights. "Mean revenue is $4.2M" is a statistic. "Revenue grew 34% YoY but growth is decelerating -- Q3 peak was 8% vs. 22% last year" is an insight.

Module 1: Data Profiling

First pass on any dataset. Compute before exploring.

Metric	What It Tells You	Red Flag
Row count	Dataset scale	<100 rows limits statistical power
Column count	Dimensionality	>50 columns suggests feature bloat
Null percentage	Data completeness	>20% nulls in key column = unreliable
Unique count	Cardinality	Unique count = row count → likely ID
Type inference	String/number/date/boolean	Mixed types in same column = dirty
Memory estimate	Processing feasibility	>500MB warns for browser context
Duplicate rows	Data quality	>1% duplicates needs dedup decision

Profiling Output Template

Dataset: {name} ({rowCount} rows x {colCount} columns)
Source:  {source} | Format: {format} | Encoding: {encoding}

Column Summary:
  {name}: {type} | {nullPct}% null | {uniqueCount} unique | min={min} max={max} mean={mean}
  ...

Quality Score: {score}/100
  - Completeness: {completeness}% (columns with <5% nulls)
  - Consistency: {consistency}% (columns with single type)
  - Uniqueness: {uniqueness}% (no unexpected duplicates)

Warnings:
  - Column "X" has 23% nulls -- consider imputation or exclusion
  - Column "Y" has mixed types (78% number, 22% string) -- needs cleaning

Module 2: Descriptive Statistics

What to compute first for every numeric column.

Statistic	When It Matters
Mean vs. Median	If mean >> median, right-skewed (outliers pull up)
Standard Dev	Spread -- is the data tight or dispersed?
Min / Max	Range -- any impossible values?
Percentiles	P25, P50, P75 -- where does the bulk sit?
Skewness	>1 or <-1 suggests non-normal distribution
Kurtosis	>3 = heavy tails (more outliers than expected)

Rule of Thumb: Mean vs. Median

• If |mean - median| / median > 0.1 (10%), report median as the "typical" value
• Always report both -- the gap itself is an insight

Module 3: Distribution Analysis

Shape	What It Suggests	Story Intent
Normal	Stable process, predictable	Distribution
Right-skewed	Many small values, few large (income)	Deviation
Left-skewed	Most values high, some low (test scores)	Deviation
Bimodal	Two populations mixed together	Compare (groups)
Uniform	No pattern -- random or categorical codes	None (check)
Power law	Few items dominate (Pareto, web traffic)	Part-to-Whole

Normality Quick Check

1. Compare mean to median (>10% gap = non-normal)
2. Check skewness (|skew| > 1 = non-normal)
3. If important: Shapiro-Wilk test (n < 5000) or Anderson-Darling

Module 4: Correlation & Relationship

| Strength | |r| Range | Interpretation | | -------- | ----------- | --------------------------- | | Strong | 0.7 -- 1.0 | Likely meaningful | | Moderate | 0.4 -- 0.7 | Worth investigating | | Weak | 0.1 -- 0.4 | Unlikely actionable alone | | None | < 0.1 | No linear relationship |

Simpson's Paradox Awareness

Always check: does the correlation reverse when you split by a categorical variable?

Overall: Ad spend positively correlates with sales (+0.6)
By region: In 3 of 4 regions, correlation is NEGATIVE
Cause: High-spend region has higher baseline sales (confound)

Rule: If a strong correlation exists, segment by the top 2-3 categorical variables and re-check.

Module 5: Segmentation

Group-by patterns for discovering sub-populations.

Technique	When to Use	Output
Group-by aggregate	Categorical × numeric	Segment averages
Percentile buckets	Continuous variable, create tiers	Low/Mid/High
RFM analysis	Customer behavior (recency, freq, $)	Customer segments
Cohort analysis	Time-based grouping (signup month)	Retention curves
Cross-tabulation	Two categorical variables	Contingency table

"So What?" for Segments

For each segment found, answer: "If I could only act on ONE segment, which one and why?"

Module 6: Time-Series Decomposition

Component	What It Is	Detection
Trend	Long-term direction	Rolling average (window = period)
Seasonality	Repeating pattern at fixed intervals	Autocorrelation at lag = period
Residual	What's left (noise + anomalies)	Original - trend - seasonality

Rolling Average Windows

Data Frequency	Window
Daily	7 or 30
Weekly	4 or 13
Monthly	3 or 12
Quarterly	4

Module 7: Anomaly Detection

Method	Best For	Threshold
Z-score	Normal-ish distributions
IQR fence	Skewed distributions	< Q1-1.5×IQR or > Q3+1.5×IQR
Isolation	Multivariate outliers	Score > 0.7 (heuristic)
Visual	Any -- always plot first	Inspect scatter/box

Anomaly Protocol

1. Detect and flag -- never auto-remove
2. Investigate: is it a data error, a real outlier, or a different population?
3. Document the decision: kept (real), removed (error), or separated (sub-population)

Module 8: "So What?" Translation (DIKW)

The most important module. Convert statistics into business language.

Level	Example (Bad)	Example (Good)
Data	"Column revenue has 5000 values"	(Don't report raw data)
Information	"Mean revenue is $4.2M"	"Average quarterly revenue is $4.2M across 8 quarters"
Knowledge	"Revenue has a positive trend"	"Revenue grew 34% YoY but growth rate decelerated from 22% to 8%"
Wisdom	(Requires domain context)	"Growth is decelerating -- if Q3 seasonal effect weakens, plan for flat"

Insight Statement Template

[WHAT]: {metric} is {value/behavior}
[SO WHAT]: This means {business implication}
[NOW WHAT]: Consider {action or follow-up question}
[STORY INTENT]: {compare|trend|deviation|distribution|relationship|part-to-whole|flow|hierarchy|spatial}
[CHART]: {recommended chart type} because {rationale}

Example Insight Statements

[WHAT]: California's population (39M) is 5x the median state (7.5M)
[SO WHAT]: Resource allocation models using state averages will dramatically under-serve CA
[NOW WHAT]: Segment by population tier, not just state count
[STORY INTENT]: Compare
[CHART]: Horizontal bar (sorted descending) because ranking 50 items with long labels

[WHAT]: Support ticket resolution time has a bimodal distribution (peaks at 2h and 48h)
[SO WHAT]: Two distinct processes exist -- quick fixes and escalated investigations
[NOW WHAT]: Separate the two populations before setting SLA targets
[STORY INTENT]: Distribution
[CHART]: Histogram with two highlighted peaks, or violin plot for visual impact

Module 9: Hypothesis Framework

Structured approach to moving from observation to testable claim.

Step	Action
Observe	Note a pattern in the data
Hypothesize	State a testable claim ("X causes Y because Z")
Test	Check against data (filter, segment, correlate)
Conclude	Supported, refuted, or inconclusive
Narrate	Write the finding as an insight statement

Anti-Patterns

Anti-Pattern	Problem	Fix
Reporting stats only	No business meaning	Always add "so what?"
Correlation = causation	Misleading conclusions	Check for confounders, state "correlates"
Ignoring base rates	Percentages without context	Always report denominator
Survivorship bias	Only analyzing what's visible	Ask "what's missing from this data?"
Over-aggregation	Hiding variation with averages	Show distribution, not just mean
Premature optimization	Jumping to solutions before understanding	Complete the EDA before recommending action