problem-validator

name	problem-validator
description	Stress-tests whether your problem is real, painful, and worth solving before you build anything. Runs 5 validation tests (max 25 points), then spawns 3 parallel research agents — Evidence Hunter, Market Sizer, and Alternative Mapper — to gather supporting data simultaneously. Use when you have a product idea and want to validate it's solving a genuine problem, or when you're unsure if people actually care. Produces problem-validation-report.md with a confidence score and clear go/no-go signal.
phase	strategy
version	2.0.0

Problem Validator

Quick Start

Human-First Response

Default: answer in chat first with Verdict, Do this now, and Details saved. Keep chat under 150 words unless asked; do not paste the full artifact. Write/update the requested .md file as the durable record for agents.

Say: "Validate my problem" or "Is this problem worth solving?"

You'll answer 5 questions. Three research agents run in parallel to gather evidence. Total time: 10 minutes. Output: problem-validation-report.md — a structured assessment with a confidence score and an honest go/no-go recommendation.

What You'll Get

A problem-validation-report.md containing: your problem restated precisely, the five validation tests scored (max 25 points), parallel research from three agents (existing solutions, market size, current alternatives), a confidence level (Low / Medium / High), and a clear recommendation — build, validate more, or pivot.

Example output excerpt: Problem: Independent yoga instructors lose 3-5 hours per week manually following up with students who haven't rebooked. Score: 18/25 — Medium Confidence Frequency: 3/5 — weekly occurrence Active Workaround: 5/5 — spreadsheets + manual DMs Intensity: 3/5 — lost time + embarrassment Willingness to Pay: 2/5 — indirect spend on scheduling tools Beachhead Density: 5/5 — can name 50 instructors easily via local studios and Instagram Agent A found: 4 competing tools, 12 Reddit threads complaining about rebooking Agent B found: ~180K independent yoga instructors in the US, $2.1B adjacent market in studio software Agent C found: Current alternatives are spreadsheets, Calendly hacks, and manual DMs Recommendation: Validate willingness to pay before building. Talk to 5 instructors. Ask if they've ever paid for anything to reduce admin time.

---

The Expert Judgment Embedded

This skill applies The Mom Test (Rob Fitzpatrick) combined with Problem-Solution Fit criteria from Steve Blank's customer development methodology. Most founders validate problems by asking "Would you use this?" — which is useless because people are polite. This skill validates against observable signals: active workarounds, money already being spent, frequency, and intensity of the pain.

The uncomfortable truth: most product ideas fail the problem validation test not because the problem is fake, but because it's a vitamin (nice to have) rather than a painkiller (urgent to fix). This skill distinguishes between the two.

---

Parallel Execution

Step 1: Restate the Problem and Run the Five Tests (Orchestrator)

The agent asks the founder to complete: "Right now, [specific user] has to [painful thing] every [frequency], which causes [consequence]."

Vague problems fail validation. Precise problems succeed or fail clearly.

Auto-read: If customer-profile.md exists in the project, read it first and use it to pre-fill context about the target user.

Then ask the founder the 5 validation questions and score each:

Test	Question	Scoring
1. Frequency	How often does this problem occur for your target user?	Daily = 5, Weekly = 3, Monthly = 1, Rarely = 0
2. Active Workaround	Are people already solving this with a hack, spreadsheet, or manual process?	Yes = 5, Sort of = 2, No = 0
3. Intensity	How much pain does this cause? Score 1 point for each: lost money, lost time, embarrassment, risk, blocked from progress.	0-5 (1 point per criterion met)
4. Willingness to Pay	Is anyone already spending money (directly or indirectly) to address this?	Direct spend on this category = 5, Indirect/adjacent spend = 2, None = 0
5. Beachhead Density	Can you name 50 specific people who have this problem?	Easily = 5, With effort = 3, Struggling = 1, Cannot = 0

Max score: 25 points.

Confidence levels:

• 20-25: High — strong signal, safe to scope and build
• 12-19: Medium — real problem, but validate more before building
• Under 12: Low — rethink the problem or the user before proceeding

Record the scores. This is the input for the parallel phase.

Step 2: Parallel Research (3 Agents Simultaneously)

After the founder answers the 5 questions, spawn 3 agents simultaneously:

Agent A — Evidence Hunter Context: The restated problem + target user description Task: Search for evidence that this problem exists in the wild.

• Look for existing solutions (products, tools, services) that address this problem
• Find forum complaints, Reddit threads, review site mentions, support tickets
• Surface any customer research, surveys, or articles discussing this pain point
• Note the language real people use to describe this problem Returns: Evidence report — what exists, what people say, links and sources, strength of signal (weak / moderate / strong)

Agent B — Market Sizer Context: The restated problem + target user description + beachhead density answer Task: Estimate the beachhead market size and adjacent spend.

• How many people in the beachhead segment have this problem?
• What are they currently spending on related tools or services?
• What is the adjacent market size (the broader category)?
• Is the beachhead growing, stable, or shrinking? Returns: Market sizing report — beachhead estimate, adjacent market size, spend data, growth direction

Agent C — Alternative Mapper Context: The restated problem + target user description + active workaround answer Task: Map what people currently do instead of having a proper solution.

• Document every current alternative (manual processes, spreadsheets, existing tools, ignoring the problem)
• Rate each alternative: how good is it? (terrible / adequate / good enough)
• Identify the switching cost from each alternative to a new solution
• Flag the "good enough" alternatives — these are the real competitors, not other startups Returns: Alternatives map — every current approach, its quality, switching cost, and whether it's "good enough" to block adoption

Wait for all 3 agents. The orchestrator synthesizes.

Step 3: Synthesis (Orchestrator Only)

Combine the founder's 5 test scores with the research from all three agents. Adjust confidence if agent research contradicts or reinforces the founder's answers.

Write problem-validation-report.md:

# Problem Validation Report — [YYYY-MM-DD]

## Problem Statement
[Restated problem in the precise format]

## Validation Scores

| Test | Score | Detail |
|------|-------|--------|
| Frequency | [X]/5 | [one-line explanation] |
| Active Workaround | [X]/5 | [one-line explanation] |
| Intensity | [X]/5 | [which criteria met: lost money, lost time, embarrassment, risk, blocked] |
| Willingness to Pay | [X]/5 | [one-line explanation] |
| Beachhead Density | [X]/5 | [one-line explanation] |
| **Total** | **[X]/25** | **[High / Medium / Low]** |

## Research Findings

### Evidence in the Wild (Agent A)
[Existing solutions found, forum complaints, reviews, language people use]

### Market Size (Agent B)
[Beachhead estimate, adjacent market, current spend, growth direction]

### Current Alternatives (Agent C)
[What people do today, quality of each alternative, switching costs]

## Confidence: [High / Medium / Low]

[One paragraph synthesizing the scores and agent research into a clear signal]

## Recommendation

[Build / Validate more / Pivot — with specific next action]
[If Medium: exactly what to validate and how]
[If Low: what to rethink and why]

---

Sequential Fallback (Codex / OpenCode)

If your agent doesn't support parallel subagents, run the research sequentially:

1. Restate the problem and score the 5 validation tests
2. Evidence Hunter research (existing solutions, forum complaints, reviews)
3. Market Sizer research (beachhead estimate, adjacent spend)
4. Alternative Mapper research (current approaches, switching costs)
5. Synthesize into problem-validation-report.md

Same output. ~3x longer.

---

Worked Example

Founder: Building an AI tool to help HR managers write job descriptions faster.

Step 1 — Problem restated: "Right now, HR managers at companies with 20-200 employees have to write each job description from scratch every time they open a new role, which causes 45-90 minutes of lost time per JD and inconsistent quality across roles."

Step 1 — Validation scores:

Test	Score	Detail
Frequency	3/5	Weekly — every new hire triggers this, most HR managers write 2-4 JDs per month
Active Workaround	5/5	Yes — HR managers copy old JDs, use Google templates, or ask ChatGPT
Intensity	3/5	Lost time (1) + embarrassment from bad JDs attracting wrong candidates (1) + blocked from moving hiring forward until JD is done (1)
Willingness to Pay	5/5	Direct spend — tools like Workable and Greenhouse are paid for; adjacent spend on recruiting confirmed
Beachhead Density	5/5	Can easily name 50 HR managers at mid-size companies via LinkedIn search
Total	21/25	High

Step 2 — Parallel agents spawn:

Agent A (Evidence Hunter): Found 8 existing JD tools (Textio, Ongig, Gender Decoder), 23 Reddit threads in r/humanresources complaining about JD writing, 4 G2 review threads mentioning "JD creation" as a pain point. Signal: strong.

Agent B (Market Sizer): ~340K companies in the US with 20-200 employees. Average 1.2 HR managers per company. Beachhead: ~408K potential users. ATS market is $2.7B and growing 9% YoY. Adjacent spend confirmed.

Agent C (Alternative Mapper): Current alternatives: (1) Copy-paste from old JDs — adequate but produces stale, inconsistent output. (2) Google "job description template" — terrible quality. (3) ChatGPT — adequate but requires heavy editing and no compliance checking. (4) ATS built-in templates — good enough for basic roles, weak for specialized positions. Switching cost: low for all alternatives.

Step 3 — Synthesis:

Score: 21/25 — High Confidence

The active workaround signal (people already using ChatGPT for this) is the strongest possible validation — you're not creating demand, you're serving it better. Market is large enough, alternatives are adequate but not great, and switching cost is low.

Recommendation: Build. The combination of high frequency, strong active workarounds, and confirmed willingness to pay makes this a clear go. Start with mvp-scoper to define exactly what to build first. Focus differentiation on what ChatGPT can't do: compliance checking, tone consistency across roles, and integration with ATS systems.

---

Related Skills

• Use mvp-scoper after this — once the problem is validated, scope what to build
• Use customer-hypothesis in parallel — sharpens who exactly has this problem
• Use assumption-mapper after this — maps your remaining unknowns to validation methods
• Use co-founder if your score is Medium and you're not sure whether to build or validate more