eva-thesis

name	eva-thesis
description	Create and update Eva evolving thesis posts with market and fact signals.

Eva Thesis Skill

Use this when an agent needs to create, inspect, or revise an Eva thesis.

Canonical MCP and safety guide: docs/MCP_AGENT_GUIDE.md. Copy-paste MCP payload examples: docs/MCP_AGENT_EXAMPLES.md.

Workflow

1. Search markets with the search_markets MCP tool.
2. Inspect existing theses with get_thesis before revising.
3. Create a new thesis preview with create_thesis_draft, including market and fact signals in the tool input.
4. Prepare updates with prepare_revision_draft; there is no live record_revision MCP tool.
5. Preserve market URLs, source URLs, signal weights, signal roles, and revision notes.
6. Treat MCP write outputs as anchor_prepared_not_published until the user approves the public publish path and a matching transaction is confirmed.
7. Never claim public publishing, protocol anchoring, or revision confirmation unless anchor status is confirmed via receipt or contract readback.
8. For final handoff text after draft prep, use docs/AGENT_SAFE_OUTPUTS.md for short updates or docs/MCP_AGENT_HANDOFF_TEMPLATE.md for full handoffs so the user sees the exact approval still needed before broadcast/public publish.
9. If no reliable signals are ready, create a signal-light draft with empty signal arrays and say so. Do not invent evidence to satisfy the schema.
10. For production or launch-readiness handoffs, include storage state. MCP draft prep is storage not assessed unless an approved readiness/readback check proves persisted thesis state.

Claim Language Guardrails

• publishState: "anchor_prepared_not_published" means the draft is ready for review only.
• anchorStatus: "prepared" means transaction calldata is ready for approval only.
• prepare_anchor_transaction rebuilds transaction payloads; it does not publish, revise, or prove anchoring.
• A transaction hash without matching receipt/readback is pending, not confirmed.
• Missing or unauthorized identity is a blocker. Do not substitute another wallet or X handle to continue.
• Empty signal arrays are allowed for drafts, but they are not evidence. Call them signal-light and collect real sources before making signal-backed claims.
• A prepared draft, revision, anchorPreparationId, or transaction payload is not durable-production storage evidence. Use storage readiness blocked when production health/readiness does not expose write-path durability.

See docs/MCP_AGENT_GUIDE.md for schemas, allowed enums, and safe write boundaries. See docs/MCP_AGENT_EXAMPLES.md for ready market-search, draft, revision, anchor-rebuild, and blocked-identity examples. See docs/MCP_AGENT_ERROR_HANDLING.md when a tool name, schema, credential, or output shape is unclear.

Tool Recovery Rules

• Use only the live MCP allowlist: search_markets, get_thesis, create_thesis_draft, prepare_revision_draft, and prepare_anchor_transaction.
• If a prompt or client suggests record_revision, article/claim tools, curator tools, staking, challenge, settlement, paid-verification, or LLM-verification flows, treat that as stale scope.
• If an older anchor-prep output only returns transactions, still treat it as preparation only; it is not public publish support or confirmed anchoring.
• Never repair a schema error by dropping material source URLs, weights, roles, or revision notes.

Revision Language

• "draft prepared" = MCP preview plus prepared anchor calldata.
• "broadcast submitted" = approved transaction hash exists, still waiting for confirmation.
• "revision live" = confirmed receipt or contract readback matches the prepared revision.

For revisions, include a short note explaining what changed. The current prepare_revision_draft schema does not include walletSource; do not document or pass one unless the live MCP schema changes.

Safe Write Boundary

Agents may prepare drafts and anchor transactions. Agents may not silently publish, broadcast, trade, custody funds, run claims markets, or create article/blog posts under the narrowed Eva product scope.

Agents may not claim launch-ready thesis-write durability from MCP output alone. Production durability needs a named readiness/readback/storage-mode check.

SpaceX IPO Example

Title: SpaceX IPO liquidity rotation thesis

Core idea: SpaceX IPO anticipation is absorbing speculative liquidity now; after the IPO path becomes explicit, risk markets can reprice as attention and liquidity rotate.

Useful signal classes:

• Core prediction market: SpaceX IPO timing.
• Lateral markets: risk appetite, private-market liquidity, Tesla/space-adjacent sentiment.
• Fact signals: tender offers, valuation reports, investor liquidity events, regulatory filings.
• Contradictions: delayed IPO signals, liquidity tightening, failed risk rotation.