simulation-test-plan

name	simulation-test-plan
description	Design a compact parameter-recovery simulation plan for the freqTLS 4PL thermal-load-sensitivity model.

Simulation Test Plan

Use this skill when planning the simulation evidence for a freqTLS slice (recovery, coverage, edge behaviour, or benchmark sanity). Curie leads; Fisher reviews the inferential targets.

Procedure

1. State the estimand or invariant: recovery of CTmax, z, low, up, k, phi; profile equivariance ci_z == exp(ci_log_z); |D(MLE)| ~ 0; or a warning on a weakly identified design.
2. Construct data from known settings with simulate_tls() (locked data-generating process, fixed seed, factorial temperature x duration grid).
3. Fit with the public fit_tls() workflow and form intervals with confint(method = "profile").
4. Check estimates and intervals on the scale the user interprets (degrees for CTmax, degrees-per-decade for z, probabilities for low/up).
5. Add at least one scientifically likely edge case (sparse design, no/all mortality, threshold never crossed, phi near the binomial limit).
6. Keep routine tests deterministic and small; put long studies in data-raw/.

freqTLS Targets

• Recovery tolerances (guide, from the SPEC): CTmax to about 0.4 deg C, z to about 0.6, low/up to about 0.05, k to about 30% relative; wider for beta-binomial.
• logLik(beta_binomial) > logLik(binomial) and AIC(beta_binomial) < AIC(binomial) on overdispersed data; near-binomial on clean data.
• Benchmark sanity: cached bayesTLS vs live freqTLS within a loose tolerance (CTmax ~ 1 deg C, z ~ 25%); no Stan in the test.

Edge Cases

Too few temperatures or durations; no mortality; all mortality; threshold never crossed; asymptote not approached; CTmax extrapolated; non-closing profile (warning + NA endpoint, no crash); grouped designs with shared shape.