polymarket-elon-tweets

name	polymarket-elon-tweets
displayName	Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader
description	Trade Polymarket "Elon Musk # tweets" markets using XTracker post count data. Buys adjacent range buckets when combined cost < $1 for structural edge. Use when user wants to trade tweet count markets, automate Elon tweet bets, check XTracker stats, or run noovd-style trading.
metadata	{"clawdbot":{"emoji":"🐦","requires":{"env":["SIMMER_API_KEY"],"pip":["simmer-sdk"]},"cron":null,"autostart":false,"automaton":{"managed":true,"entrypoint":"elon_tweets.py"}}}
authors	["Simmer (@simmer_markets)"]
attribution	Strategy inspired by @noovd
version	1.0.4
published	true

Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader

Trade "Elon Musk # tweets" markets on Polymarket using XTracker post count data.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:

• Trade Elon Musk tweet count markets automatically
• Set up @noovd-style bucket trading
• Check XTracker pace and stats for current tweet events
• Monitor and exit existing tweet market positions
• Configure bucket spread or entry thresholds

How the Strategy Works

Polymarket runs weekly "How many tweets will Elon post?" events with range buckets (e.g., 200-219, 220-239, 240-259). Exactly one bucket resolves YES = $1. The strategy:

1. Get XTracker pace — XTracker tracks Elon's real-time post count and projects the final total
2. Find center bucket — The bucket containing XTracker's projected pace
3. Buy adjacent buckets — Buy the center + neighbors (configurable spread)
4. Check combined cost — Only buy if the sum of bucket prices < $1 (the +EV threshold)
5. One bucket pays $1 — When the event resolves, one of your buckets pays $1, covering costs

Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

1. Install the Simmer SDK

   pip install simmer-sdk
   

2. Ask for Simmer API key

   • They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
   • Store in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY

3. Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading)

   • This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
   • Store in environment as WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
   • The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed

4. Ask about settings (or confirm defaults)

   • Max bucket sum: Combined price threshold (default 90¢)
   • Max position: Amount per bucket (default $5.00)
   • Bucket spread: How many neighbors to buy (default 1 = center ± 1)
   • Exit threshold: When to sell (default 65¢)

5. Save settings to config.json or environment variables

6. Set up cron (disabled by default — user must enable scheduling)