model-update

name

model-update

description

Update financial models with new data — quarterly earnings, management guidance, macro changes, or revised assumptions. Adjusts estimates, recalculates valuation, and flags material changes. Use after earnings, guidance updates, or when assumptions need refreshing. Triggers on "update model", "plug earnings", "refresh estimates", "update numbers for [company]", "new guidance", or "revise estimates".

Model Update

jdy Data Source Fallback Policy

When a skill needs external market/on-chain/macro data, use this order unless the user explicitly says otherwise:

1. MCP first — use configured MCP tools when available and healthy.
2. OpenCLI second — if MCP is unavailable, missing keys, rate-limited, or insufficient, use opencli before lower-level fallbacks.
   • If browser access is needed, first launch jdy's fixed browser profile:

     /Users/jdy/document/web3/ChromeScript/chrome_multi_instance.sh --instance 0
     

   • Prefer site adapters when available, e.g. opencli yahoo-finance, opencli xueqiu, opencli eastmoney, opencli web read, or opencli browser ....
   • For public JSON endpoints, opencli browser open <api-url> + opencli browser eval 'document.body.innerText' is acceptable when it improves consistency with browser/session-based workflows.
3. Direct API / Chrome CDP / package fallback third — use direct HTTP APIs, the bundled packages/chrome-cdp, or manual browser extraction only when OpenCLI has no adapter, cannot reach the page, or returns incomplete data.
4. Web Search last — use search only as the final fallback or for qualitative context/news that requires multiple public sources.

Always cite which layer produced each important datapoint. If layers disagree, say so and prefer the more primary/structured source.

Data Source Priority

Layer 1: MCP

• alpha-vantage — 电话会议转录、技术指标（25次/天限额）

Layer 2: OpenCLI

• When MCP is unavailable, use OpenCLI before lower-level fallbacks.
• Launch browser instance 0 first when browser/session access is needed: /Users/jdy/document/web3/ChromeScript/chrome_multi_instance.sh --instance 0.
• Prefer relevant adapters (opencli yahoo-finance, opencli xueqiu, opencli eastmoney, opencli web read, opencli browser ...) when available.

Layer 3: Chrome CDP

• finance.yahoo.com/quote/{ticker} — 最新财报数据、分析师预期
• seekingalpha.com/symbol/{ticker}/earnings/transcripts — 电话会议记录

Layer 4: Web Search

• Company IR pages for press releases
• SEC EDGAR for filings

Workflow

Step 1: Identify What Changed

Determine the update trigger:

• Earnings release: New quarterly actuals to plug in
• Guidance change: Company updated forward outlook
• Estimate revision: Analyst changing assumptions based on new data
• Macro update: Interest rates, FX, commodity prices changed
• Event-driven: M&A, restructuring, new product, management change

Step 2: Plug New Data

After Earnings

Update the model with reported actuals:

Line Item	Prior Estimate	Actual	Delta	Notes
Revenue
Gross Margin
Operating Expenses
EBITDA
EPS
[Key metric 1]
[Key metric 2]

Segment Detail (if applicable):

• Update each segment's revenue and margin
• Note any segment mix shifts

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Updates:

• Cash and debt balances
• Share count (buybacks, dilution)
• Capex actual vs. estimate
• Working capital changes

Step 3: Revise Forward Estimates

Based on the new data, adjust forward estimates:

	Old FY Est	New FY Est	Change	Old Next FY	New Next FY	Change
Revenue
EBITDA
EPS

Key Assumption Changes:

• What assumptions are you changing and why?
• Revenue growth rate: old → new (reason)
• Margin assumption: old → new (reason)
• Any new items (restructuring charges, one-time gains, etc.)

Step 4: Valuation Impact

Recalculate valuation with updated estimates:

Valuation Method	Prior	Updated	Change
DCF fair value
P/E (NTM EPS × target multiple)
EV/EBITDA (NTM EBITDA × target multiple)
Price Target

Step 5: Summary & Action

Estimate Change Summary:

• One paragraph: what changed, why, and what it means for the stock
• Is this a thesis-changing event or noise?

Rating / Price Target:

• Maintain or change rating?
• New price target (if changed) with methodology
• Upside/downside to current price

Step 6: Output

• Updated Excel model (if user provides the existing model)
• Estimate change summary (Markdown file)
• Updated price target derivation

Important Notes

• Always reconcile your estimates to the company's reported figures before projecting forward
• Note any non-recurring items and whether your estimates are GAAP or adjusted
• Track your estimate revision history — it shows your analytical progression
• If the quarter was noisy, separate signal from noise in your estimate changes
• Check consensus after updating — how do your revised estimates compare to the Street?
• Share count matters — dilution from stock comp, converts, or buybacks can materially affect EPS