estimate

name	estimate
description	Codex skill for running agent-estimate CLI commands (estimate, validate, calibrate).

estimate (Codex)

Use this skill when a user asks to estimate AI-agent effort, compare agent time with human time, validate an estimate against observed work, or recalibrate local model factors.

The skill is command-first: execute the agent-estimate CLI and return its output. Do not invent computed values.

Intent Mapping

User intent	Command
Estimate one task	agent-estimate estimate "<task>"
Estimate tasks from a file	agent-estimate estimate --file <path>
Estimate GitHub issues	agent-estimate estimate --issues <nums> --repo <owner/name>
Validate estimate vs actuals	agent-estimate validate <observation.yaml>
Recompute calibration summary	agent-estimate calibrate

Estimate Inputs

Accept exactly one input source:

• task description argument
• --file <path>
• --issues <nums> with --repo <owner/name>

If the input source is missing or ambiguous, ask for the missing piece.

Estimate Flags

• --config <path> - custom agent fleet config.
• --format markdown|json - output format.
• --review-mode none|standard|complex|3-round - additive review tier:
  • none: +0m
  • standard: +15m
  • complex: +25m
  • 3-round: +35m
• --type coding|brainstorm|research|config|documentation|frontend|app_dev.
• --spec-clarity <0.3..1.3>.
• --warm-context <0.3..1.15>.
• --agent-fit <0.9..1.2>.
• --title <text>.
• --verbose.

When --type is omitted, the CLI auto-detects the category. Research-grounded brainstorms with citation, OSS, benchmark, source, or landscape signals route to the research band instead of the flat brainstorm band.

Type Guidance

• coding: default tiered PERT model for feature work, bug fixes, tests, and refactors.
• brainstorm: pure ideation and design exploration.
• research: audits, investigations, OSS comparisons, citation/source-grounded work.
• config: deploys, infra, CI/CD, runbooks, monitoring, and SRE changes.
• documentation: API docs, guides, README changes, changelogs.
• frontend: UI/page work. Content patches use 15/25/40; page builds use 40/60/90.
• app_dev: app shells and desktop/mobile builds. Uses a cold generic L-style prior; use modifiers for warm or highly specified work.

METR Model Keys

Current threshold keys include:

• opus_4_x, opus_4_7, opus_4_6
• gpt_5_5, gpt_5_4
• gemini_3_1_pro
• sonnet_4_6
• haiku_4_5

Legacy keys such as opus, gpt_5, gpt_5_2, gpt_5_3, gemini_3_pro, and sonnet remain accepted.

Execution Rules

1. Execute commands from the repository root.
2. Prefer the installed agent-estimate binary.
3. If the binary is absent, use python -m agent_estimate.cli.app.
4. Capture stdout, stderr, and exit code.
5. If the command fails, return the error concisely and include the attempted command.
6. If the command succeeds, return the CLI output directly.
7. Treat --format json as a normal success path.

Examples

agent-estimate estimate "Add login button with OAuth"
agent-estimate estimate "Audit dependencies for known CVEs" --type research
agent-estimate estimate "Build a landing page" --type frontend
agent-estimate estimate "Build an Electron app shell" --type app_dev --spec-clarity 0.3 --warm-context 0.3
agent-estimate estimate --file tasks.md
agent-estimate estimate --issues 1,2,3 --repo org/name
agent-estimate estimate --review-mode 3-round "Refactor auth module"
agent-estimate validate observation.yaml --db ~/.agent-estimate/calibration.db
agent-estimate calibrate --db ~/.agent-estimate/calibration.db

Observation YAML Example

task_type: frontend
estimated_minutes: 60.0
actual_work_minutes: 52.0
actual_total_minutes: 87.0
file_count: 4
line_count: 180
test_count: 3
execution_mode: single
review_mode: 3-round
review_overhead_minutes: 35.0
modifiers:
  spec_clarity: 1.0
  warm_context: 0.9

Notes

• Requires agent-estimate installed: pip install agent-estimate or pip install -e '.[dev]' in this repo.
• Default config uses bundled default_agents.yaml.
• Estimates are generic priors. User-local validate and calibrate should tune them against local SQLite history over time.