| name | hk-ipo-analysis |
| description | Analyze Hong Kong IPO (new share) listings end-to-end and produce a retail-investor-friendly subscription decision memo. Use when the user mentions a HK stock code in IPO/招股 phase, asks "要不要认购/打新", references 招股书/招股章程/招股价/暗盘/破发/孖展, shares an IPO prospectus PDF or hkexnews link, or asks to evaluate any "(待)上市" Hong Kong company. Covers locating the prospectus on HKEX disclosure (申请版本 + 正式招股章程), pulling deal terms (price range, lot, entry fee, timetable, cornerstones, clawback) from etnet/AASTOCKS/sina, parsing prospectus financials (revenue, margin, cashflow, customer concentration), building a peer-PS/PE comparison, structuring risk factors, ending with an explicit "if I were the user, would I subscribe" stance, and giving post-listing position management rules. Not for already-listed seasoned equities — for those use ordinary equity research instead. |
HK IPO Analysis
A repeatable workflow for evaluating a Hong Kong new-share offering and giving the user a clear subscription stance — not just a summary.
When to use
Trigger on any of:
- A 4–5 digit HK stock code in IPO window (e.g.
01236, 01609, 00100).
- User shares a prospectus PDF or hkexnews link.
- Mentions: 招股 / 招股书 / 招股章程 / 招股价 / 入场费 / 每手 / 暗盘 / 破发 / 孖展 / cornerstone / 基石 / clawback / 回拨 / 国际配售.
- Question shape: "要不要认购 X"、"分析下这只新股"、"打新 X"、"X 上市能不能买".
If the company is already listed and seasoned (post-IPO with normal trading history), this skill is the wrong tool — fall back to standard equity analysis.
Workflow checklist
Copy this checklist and tick as you go:
- [ ] Step 0: Time-window gate — is the public offer still open?
- [ ] Step 1: Lock down deal terms (price, lot, fee, timetable, structure, greenshoe)
- [ ] Step 2: Locate AND DOWNLOAD the prospectus PDF locally
- [ ] Step 3: Business + industry positioning + narrative-claim verification + 品类重定义检查
- [ ] Step 3.5: Pre-IPO history check (prior failed IPOs, founder cash-out, valuation anchor)
- [ ] Step 4: Financial track record (revenue, margin, cashflow, R&D, 同店模型 if 线下零售)
- [ ] Step 5: Concentration & dependency risks (clients/suppliers + 客户对称性)
- [ ] Step 6: Implied valuation + peer comparison + 主题进度条
- [ ] Step 7: Risk structure — single-issue dealbreaker scan FIRST, then 4×3 matrix
- [ ] Step 8: Subscription stance using the decision rubric
- [ ] Step 9: Post-listing position management rules (核心仓/交易仓 + 阶梯止盈 + 复评 trigger)
Do not skip steps. If a step's data isn't available, write "未披露/未取得" rather than fabricating.
Helper scripts (optional, faster than manual web fetches)
scripts/fetch_ipo_terms.sh <code>
scripts/find_prospectus.sh <code> [zh|en]
If scripts fail, fall back to manual etnet/AASTOCKS/hkexnews URLs.
Step 0 — Time-window gate
Compare today against the IPO timetable from etnet/AASTOCKS:
| Bucket | What changes |
|---|
| ⏳ Pre-S-1 / Pre-招股书（公司还没递表） | 远期前瞻分析；只能给"watching only"，禁止给立场或仓位建议；记录关键追踪节点（路演、analyst day、SEC 关键词） |
| 🟦 Before public offer opens | 标准认购分析；强调入场费/孖展/基石数学 |
| 🟢 Within public offer window | 标准认购分析；同上，加上中签率估算 |
| 🟡 After public offer closed but before listing day | Reframe：认购不可能；问题变成"暗盘是否追入" / "上市首日是否买"。用暗盘报价（不是 IPO 价）评估追价风险 |
| 🟠 Already listed (within 6 months) | 半新股阶段；分析变成"现在追入 vs 等基石解锁"；考虑 lockup expiry 时间表 |
| 🔴 Already listed (>6 months, seasoned) | Wrong skill；换标准 equity research |
State the bucket explicitly at the top of the report. Do not pretend the user can still subscribe when they can't.
Step 1 — Deal terms
Pull these in parallel from at least two independent sources (etnet, AASTOCKS, sina/east money):
| Field | Why it matters |
|---|
| Deal type | 普通 IPO / 18A（未盈利生物科技）/ 18C（未商业化特专科技；含港股 18C 第 N 家序号） / SPAC / Roll-up — 不同类型估值锚和监管门槛差别巨大 |
| Price range (HK$ low–high) | Defines max subscription cost and implied market cap |
| 价格区间收窄方向 | 定价上限定 = 需求强；定价中位 = 中性；定价下限或收窄至下半区 = 需求弱（不一定基本面差，配合 Step 6 主题进度条解读） |
| Lot size + entry fee | Decides minimum capital + retail accessibility |
| 入场费档位 | < HK$3,000 = 散户友好（高暗盘活跃度、低中签率）；3K–10K = 中等；>10K = 偏机构 |
| Offer structure (HK public + international) | Float thinness, retail allocation pool |
| Cornerstones (names, amount, lock-up, type score) | Quality of demand + post-lockup overhang — 用 prospectus-checklist.md 的评分表 |
| Clawback table | How much retail share scales up if oversubscribed |
| Greenshoe / 绿鞋 | 有/无 + 上限。无绿鞋 = 上市头 30 天裸奔，列为 🔴 |
| Use of proceeds (% split) | Reveals stage: R&D-heavy / capacity / refinance / M&A |
| Timetable | 招股期 / 定价日 / 暗盘 / 上市日 |
| 孖展超购倍数（招股期内每日跟踪） | 中签率 + 散户情绪温度 |
| 公开发售超购倍数 | 用于 Step 7 dealbreaker 扫描第 9 项；< 5× 是教科书警告 |
| A+H 标的标识 | A 股代码 + AH 折价% — 折价是独立估值维度，不混在估值评分里 |
| Director Share Program / 用户社区配售机制（美股 IPO 特有） | 例如 Reddit 把 1.76M 股分配给 mods 和老用户 — 是真实的 community moat 信号，不是噱头；记录配售比例和锁定期 |
Cite the source for each number. If two sources disagree, flag it.
⚠️ 需求过热反指标
很多人以为"超购倍数越高 = 越值得参与"。实际上：
| 信号 | 隐含含义 | Stance 影响 |
|---|
| 超购 > 3000 倍 | 中签率极低（< 1 手 / 10 万）+ 上市当天获利盘巨大 | 降低预期持有时长 |
| 基石数量 > 15 家 | 6 个月后供给冲击大 | 避免长期持仓 |
| 公开发售 100% 触发回拨上限（50%） | 公开发售部分会被超额申购摊薄 | 中签率进一步下降 |
需求过热不等于"基本面好"——它经常意味着"故事被一次性兑现"，参考 01879 曦智案例。
Step 2 — Prospectus retrieval
Try in this order:
- Run helper:
scripts/find_prospectus.sh <code> zh — searches hkexnews and downloads to prospectus/<code>_c.pdf.
- If helper fails, HKEX disclosure direct PDF at
https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/<year>/<listing-id>/documents/sehk<YYMMDD><nnnnn>_c.pdf — verify with curl -sI returning HTTP 200 and content-type: application/pdf.
- If unknown, web-search
site:hkexnews.hk <company name in 繁體> 招股章程 and "sehk<YY>" pdf.
⚠️ Always download to local immediately
HKEX replaces application proofs with newer versions without notice — the URL you cite today may 404 tomorrow (this happened in the 01609 case). The helper script writes to prospectus/<code>_<lang>.pdf; if going manual:
curl -sL "<url>" -o prospectus/<code>_<lang>.pdf
Versions
- Application Proof (草擬本): business/financials/risk are real; price/share fields show
[編纂]. Acceptable for everything except citing final 招股价.
- Post-Hearing Information Pack (PHIP): closer to final.
- Formal Prospectus (招股章程): registered with Companies Registry; required for citing the final 招股价.
Save the URL and the local copy. State explicitly which version you read and the file's last-modified date.
Step 3 — Business & positioning
Extract from prospectus chapters 「概要」「业务」「行业概览」:
- What does the company actually sell? (avoid pitch deck language)
- Where in the value chain? (component / module / system integrator / brand)
- Market size and the company's stated share — note the methodology (revenue-based? unit-based? niche-defined?).
- Who are the competitors named in 招股书 itself, not the friendly comp set the bankers picked.
- Geographic mix (CN domestic vs overseas) — affects FX, regulatory exposure, premium.
🔍 Narrative-claim verification (mandatory sub-check)
For every "global/China #N" or "largest/leading" claim:
- Find the slice definition in the industry consultant report (CIC / Frost & Sullivan / iResearch). The narrower the slice, the weaker the moat.
- Cross-check with total market share. Common pattern: "China #1 by visual-perception-tech-core revenue" = 1.6% total share. Discount accordingly.
- Check gap to #2. If <1pp, the ranking is fragile.
For every self-described positioning (e.g. "tech company", "全球化"), pull the supporting metric:
- "Tech company" → check R&D % of revenue vs sector average. <50% of sector avg = self-claim contradicted.
- "全球化" → check overseas revenue %.
- "Innovation-driven" → check patent count growth + R&D headcount ratio.
Flag any self-claim vs reality contradiction and carry it to Step 7 dealbreaker scan.
🚀 Category-redefinition check (P0 — added after 老铺 backtest)
某些公司不是在已有品类里做老二老三，而是在重新定义品类——这种情况会出现"经营模型与同行有数量级差异"，必须在 Step 6 切换估值锚，不能机械按老品类 PE/PS 判断。
判别问题（任一为「是」则触发再定价提醒）：
| 问题 | 阈值 | 含义 |
|---|
| 单店 / 单产品 / 单 SKU 收入是同行的几倍？ | ≥ 3× | 经营模型已超出同品类 |
| 客单价是同行的几倍？ | ≥ 3× | 已经在另一个价格带 |
| 同店增长 / 单 SKU 增长是同行的几倍？ | ≥ 5× | 不是周期共振，是真实再定价 |
| 净利率是同行的几倍？ | ≥ 2× | 商业模型质变 |
| 公司自我定位是否使用「文化奢侈品」「品类开创者」「new luxury」「重新定义 X」等表述？ | 关键词命中 | 市场可能未识别（这种公司 招股期常被错估） |
触发后的动作：
- 在 Step 6 估值章节明确写「这不应按 <老品类> 估值，参考锚为 <新品类> 同行 PE/PS X×」。
- 在 Step 8 stance 评分卡的「估值合理性」一栏给 ✅✅（双勾），并在 Step 9 持仓管理的核心仓比例上限上调（普通 30% → 50%）。
- 在最终立场里显式承认这是潜在 5×+ 标的，避免给"中庸立场"。
Step 3.5 — Pre-IPO history
Often buried across prospectus chapters 「歷史、發展及公司架構」+「主要股東」+「股本」, but decision-critical. Check:
| Item | Where to look | Why it matters |
|---|
| Prior IPO attempts (A-share / HK previously) | 「歷史」section + web search " 撤单 OR 失效" | Sponsor withdrawal usually signals substantive issues; policy-driven 撤回 ≠ sponsor 主动 = 不触发 dealbreaker |
| Founder / co-founder share transfers in last 24 months | 「歷史」+ 「主要股東」share-transfer table | Large pre-IPO cash-out (>50% of original holding) is a single-issue dealbreaker |
| Controlling shareholder changes | 「主要股東」 | Recent change of control = risk |
| Pre-IPO last-round valuation | 「歷史」最新一輪融資 valuation per share | 见下方「估值倒挂分情景」 |
| Sponsor / auditor changes | Cover + 「申請文件」 | Multiple changes are a red flag |
| Application lapses (失效) | hkexnews submission history | Multiple lapses (>2) → drafting / disclosure quality issues |
State each finding explicitly. If clean, write "无重大 Pre-IPO 红旗".
💡 Pre-IPO 估值倒挂分情景判断 (P1 — added after Reddit backtest)
如果 IPO 价格 < 最近一轮 Pre-IPO 估值（即倒挂 / down-round），不要一刀切判定为负面信号。要分情景：
| 情景 | 信号特征 | 判断 |
|---|
| A. 真打折（基本面恶化） | 倒挂 + 收入增速放缓 + 毛利压缩 + 用户流失 | 🔴 谨慎；倒挂幅度反映真实价值损耗 |
| B. 板块系统性折价（市场冷淡） | 倒挂 + 同板块多家公司估值同步下移 + 自身基本面稳定 | 🟡 中性；可视为 IPO 折扣 |
| C. 弹簧效应（基本面改善 + 题材重燃） | 倒挂 + 收入增速回升 + 新催化（AI 题材 / 政策红利）+ 倒挂幅度被 IPO 后题材回潮快速抹平 | 🟢 潜在反弹超调，可能是 +3× 以上的机会（Reddit 案例） |
判别问题：「倒挂的根因是公司变差了，还是 Pre-IPO 投资人当时买贵了？」前者是真打折，后者是好机会。
Step 4 — Financial track record
Build a small table from the prospectus 「财务资料」 / 「管理层讨论与分析」:
| Metric | FY-2 | FY-1 | FY (latest) | Interim | Trend? |
|---|
| Revenue | | | | | growth rate |
| Gross margin | | | | | up/down |
| Operating margin | | | | | |
| Net profit (IFRS) | | | | | |
| Adjusted net profit | | | | | esp. for biotech/AI |
| Operating cash flow | | | | | sign matters |
| R&D % of revenue | | | | | for tech |
| Cash & equivalents | | | | | runway |
Flag inflection signals: GM bottoming and turning up, OCF flipping positive, segment-mix shift driving margins.
🏪 线下零售 / 消费品的额外字段 (P1 — added after 老铺 backtest)
如果公司是 brick-and-mortar 零售 / 餐饮 / 消费品 标的，必须额外抓这几个字段——它们对未来增速的预测力远高于纯财务指标：
| Metric | 为什么关键 |
|---|
| 同店增长 (Same-store sales growth, SSSG) | 区分"开店扩张"和"真实需求"。>50% 同店增长 = 极强信号，可能是品类再定义（触发 Step 3 检查） |
| 单店年收入 (Avg revenue per store) | 与同行对比；高出 3-5× = 商业模型质变 |
| 客单价 / ATV (Average transaction value) | 客单价远高于同行 = 不在同一个价格带，估值锚要换 |
| 门店数与门店密度 | 网络饱和度 + 区域天花板 |
| 会员复购率 / 客户留存率 | 长尾收入质量 |
如果这几项里有任意 2+ 触发「品类重定义」阈值，回到 Step 3 跑 category-redefinition check。
Step 5 — Concentration & dependency risks
Mandatory pull from prospectus 「业务」 + 「风险因素」:
- Top 5 customers % of revenue (each year).
- Top 5 suppliers % of purchase.
- Single-product or single-region dependency.
- Related-party transactions of material size.
- Any pending litigation, regulatory probes, IP disputes.
- Subsidies / tax benefits as % of profit (if profit exists).
🔄 客户依赖对称性检查 (P1 — added after CRWV backtest)
Top-1 客户占比高（>50%）未必是单向依赖——要看双方切换成本是否对称：
| 维度 | 单向依赖（🔴） | 共生关系（🟡 / 🟢） |
|---|
| 客户切走的难度 | 容易（你是商品化供应） | 难（你是稀缺产能） |
| 客户的替代选择 | 多家可替换 | 少数几家或仅你一家 |
| 客户对你的认股 / 战略入股 | 无 | 有（说明客户也在锁定你） |
| 业务上下游捆绑 | 仅采购关系 | 联合研发 / 长期合同 / 共建数据中心 |
| 行业自身供需平衡 | 客户产能过剩 | 客户自身资源不足，反过来需要你（CRWV vs Microsoft） |
判断口径：「如果你和客户翻脸，是你死得更快还是客户死得更快？」
- 你死得快 → 真单向依赖（🔴）
- 双方都很疼 → 共生关系（🟡）
- 客户死得更快 → 反向依赖优势（🟢，罕见但很强）
共生关系不应触发 dealbreaker 第 4 项（即使 Top-1 > 70%）。
Step 6 — Implied valuation + peer comparison
- Compute implied market cap at low / mid / high of the price range using post-IPO total shares (not just H-share float). Cross-check against etnet's 「上市市值」 figure.
- Choose primary multiple:
- Profitable + stable: P/E (use latest-year & forward).
- Loss-making growth: P/S (forward 1–2 years).
- Asset-heavy: P/B.
- Build a 3–5 row peer table — name peers explicitly, list their HK code, recent market cap, latest revenue/profit, multiple. Note when picks deviate from prospectus's chosen peer set and why.
- State: "the IPO is priced at X× vs peer median Y× → premium/discount of Z%".
📈 主题进度条检查 (P0 — added after CRWV / Reddit backtest)
如果公司处于一个明显的宏观主题（AI / 机器人 / 新能源 / 太空 / 量子等），不能只用同行 PS/PE 机械判断——必须先评估主题阶段：
| 阶段 | 特征 | 估值行为 | 判断口径 |
|---|
| 🌱 早期（< 12 个月，第一波叙事） | 标杆公司刚上市；行业 capex 刚启动；同行少且估值波动剧烈 | PS / PE 会反复重估 1-3× ；机械按当前同业中位估值会严重低估 | 给"等回调买"风险高，可能错过 3-5× 反弹 |
| 🔥 中期（12-36 个月，主题铺开） | 多家公司上市；估值开始稳定；具体业绩开始检验叙事 | PS / PE 在一个区间震荡；机械同业对比可用 | 标准 Step 6 估值方法适用 |
| 📊 晚期（> 36 个月，主题成熟） | 行业格局稳定；估值回归基本面；增量资金减少 | 纯基本面定价；同业平均可信 | 强调下行保护 |
| ❄️ 已退潮（叙事破灭后） | 多家破发或下跌 50%+ ；新发行少 | 估值压到行业历史低位 | 反向机会 |
判别参考：
- 早期信号：主题词在过去 6 个月新闻数 +500%+ / 同行公司不到 5 家上市 / 行业 capex 同比 +100%+。
- 早期阶段对 IPO 立场的影响：估值贵不要直接 Skip，至少给"first-week observe"或小额申购，等下一波情绪。
参考 CRWV 案例：定价从 $47-55 弱化到 $40 看似负面，但 AI infra 主题处于早期，6 月行情翻 5× 印证了"早期主题 + 定价弱化 ≠ 长期看跌"。
Step 7 — Structured risk factors
🚨 Single-issue dealbreaker scan (do this FIRST)
Each item below, if HIT, caps position size at "1 lot lottery" regardless of other positives. Run the scan explicitly and report ✅ HIT / ❌ pass for each:
| # | Dealbreaker | Threshold |
|---|
| 1 | Founder / co-founder cash-out > 50% of original holding within 24 months | e.g. 55% → 4.9% (天星案例) |
| 2 | Failed prior A-share/HK IPO with sponsor unilateral withdrawal (policy-driven 撤回 不算) | e.g. 科创板撤单 |
| 3 | Negative operating cash flow for 3+ consecutive years AND no clear inflection | OCF / revenue ratio worsening |
| 4 | Top-5 customer concentration > 70% AND rising AND 单向依赖（不对称） | 共生关系不触发，参考 Step 5 客户对称性检查 |
| 5 | Self-claim vs reality contradiction | e.g. "tech co" but R&D % < ½ sector avg (乐动案例) |
| 6 | Controlling shareholder changed within 24 months | governance instability |
| 7 | Multiple sponsor or auditor changes (>1) | drafting / due-diligence quality |
| 8 | Material undecided litigation > 50% of FY net profit (or LTM revenue if loss-making) | tail liability |
| 9 | 公开发售超购倍数 < 5× AND 基石占比 < 30% AND 区间下限定价 | 三者同时 = 需求严重不足（黑芝麻案例：1.52× 超购） |
Report total dealbreakers HIT. 2+ HIT → no position larger than 1 lot, no margin, regardless of other axes.
4×3 Risk matrix
Then group remaining risks (do not just list):
- Deal-level: pricing aggressiveness, float thinness, cornerstone lockup expiry, clawback uncertainty, broker margin financing risk, greenshoe absent = 🔴.
- Company-level: profitability not yet proven, GM compression, concentration, key-man, share-incentive dilution.
- Sector / regulatory: domestic policy (集采 / VBP / data), overseas data/IP/tariff, technology displacement.
- Macro / market: HSI sentiment, sector IPO pipeline crowding, recent comparable break-issue.
For each, mark severity 🔴 High / 🟡 Medium / 🟢 Low with a one-sentence reason.
Step 8 — Subscription stance (the decision rubric)
End every analysis with an explicit personal stance using this rubric. Do not hedge into uselessness.
Score each axis ✅ / ⚠️ / ❌:
- Valuation reasonableness — is the implied multiple defensible vs peers + growth?（先做 Step 6 主题进度条 + Step 3 品类重定义后再评分）
- Quality of growth — is revenue growth backed by margin expansion or just volume at falling price?
- Path to profit / cash — is breakeven visible within 12–24 months on disclosed trajectory?
- Demand signals — cornerstone quality, expected oversubscription, sector heat.
- Downside protection — what's a realistic break-issue scenario, and can the user stomach it?
- A+H 折价（仅 A+H 标的）— 折价 >30% 是独立安全垫，单独评分不混入"估值"。
Then commit to one of (HK 标准选项):
- Skip — risk/reward unattractive at this price.
- One lot cash, treat as lottery — story interesting but not high-conviction; cap at money you can lose entirely.
- Multi-lot cash, no margin — quality + price both acceptable.
- Margin / 孖展 — only when conviction is high AND clawback math + interest cost work; usually rare.
- Wait for post-listing entry — fundamentals look good but IPO pricing leaves no margin of safety.
⚠️ 如果 Step 3 「品类重定义」检查 HIT，必须额外输出 「潜在 5× 以上标的，建议核心仓上限上调到 50% 而非默认 30%」 的提示——避免给「中庸立场」错杀。
🇺🇸 US IPO 分支
美股 IPO 散户参与机制不同（无"打新一手"概念），所以最终立场要写：
- IPO Allocation 申购 — 仅当用户有 IPO Access（嘉信、富途美股、Robinhood IPO Access、Fidelity IPO 等）；按 1-2 lots 配额申购。
- First-week observe — 没有配额；上市第一周观察价格行为，开盘 +30% 内分批入；>+50% 等回调。
- Wait for first earnings — 等首份季报后再决定。
- Skip — 估值或基本面不符合标准。
如果命中 Step 1 的「Director Share Program / 用户社区配售机制」，在立场里加备注：「community moat 是真信号，提高对 retail oversubscription 的信任度」（Reddit 案例验证）。
⏳ 远期 IPO（Pre-S-1）分支
如果是远期 IPO（尚未递表 SEC / 港交所），禁止给立场。只能给：
- Watching only — 等 S-1 / 招股章程出来后按完整 8 步重跑。
- 列出关键追踪节点（路演、analyst day、SEC 关键词订阅、上游母体股价）。
Always state: "If it were my own money, I would [X] because [one-sentence reason]." This is a personal preference statement, not investment advice — make that disclaimer once at the end.
Step 9 — Post-listing position management (added after backtest, P0)
立场不是分析的终点——上市后必须有持仓管理规则，否则避险了反而会错过反弹（CRWV 案例），或捕到大牛但没拿住（老铺案例）。
🎯 Tier the position
| 仓位类型 | 上限（占总仓） | 持有逻辑 |
|---|
| 核心仓（Core） | 默认 30%；命中 Step 3 品类重定义则上限 50% | 长期持有，跟踪基本面季度变化；除非 dealbreaker 出现否则不动 |
| 交易仓（Trade） | 70%（默认）/ 50%（核心仓上调时） | 按下方阶梯止盈规则操作 |
如果是 Skip 立场则不存在持仓管理；如果是 1 手 lottery 立场则全部归为核心仓（全亏接受）。
📐 Staged take-profit ladder（替代单一阈值）
不要写"+50% 落袋一半"这种单点规则，会在 +14× 标的上过早卖飞（老铺案例）。改用阶梯：
| 涨幅触发（vs 入场价） | 交易仓兑现比例 | 累计兑现 |
|---|
| +30% | 25% | 25% |
| +50% | 25% | 50% |
| +100% | 25% | 75% |
| +200% | 剩余全部 | 100% |
| +500% | — | （只剩核心仓继续滚动） |
核心仓不在阶梯内，只在以下事件出现时减仓：
- 首份季报增速 < 招股期承诺的 -30% 以上
- Step 3 品类重定义假设被推翻（同店增速回归同行水平）
- 单年涨幅超过 +500% 且估值已到行业极值
🔁 Mandatory re-evaluation triggers
任何一个发生时，必须回到 Step 6 重做估值 + Step 8 重出立场：
| Trigger | 频率 / 时点 |
|---|
| 跌破 IPO 价 -20% | 立即 |
| 基石解锁前 30 天 | 一次 |
| 首份季报发布 | 立即 |
| 上市满 6 个月 | 一次（特别针对定价弱化标的，如 CRWV） |
| 主题进度条阶段切换（早期 → 中期） | 触发即跑 |
| 重大新合约 / 新客户公告 | 立即 |
Output format
Step 9 在最终报告里以 「持仓管理建议」 section 出现，包括：
## 持仓管理建议
- 核心仓上限：X%
- 交易仓阶梯止盈表
- 复评 trigger 列表
- （首条触发后的预期动作模板）
Output template
Use this structure for the final memo:
# <Company> (<code>.HK) — IPO 评估
## ⏱️ 时间窗口
[认购窗口内 / 已截止 / 已上市 — Step 0 bucket]
## 🎯 最终立场（如果是我）
[1-line action: 跳过 / 一手现金 / 多手现金 / 孖展 / 等上市后买]
[1-sentence reason]
## 一句话定位
[business in plain Chinese, no pitch words]
## 发行条款速查
[deal terms table from Step 1, with greenshoe explicit]
## 招股书来源
[URL + local file + which version + last-modified date]
## 业务与行业位置 + 行研话术核查 + 品类重定义检查
[Step 3 findings]
## Pre-IPO 历史
[Step 3.5 table or "无重大红旗"; 倒挂分情景]
## 财务轨迹
[Step 4 table + inflection commentary; 同店模型 if 线下零售]
## 集中度与依赖风险
[Step 5 bullets + 客户对称性判断 if 单一大客户]
## 估值与可比公司 + 主题进度条
[Step 6 implied market cap + peer table + 主题阶段判断]
## 风险结构化
[Step 7: 🚨 Dealbreaker scan (9 项) FIRST + 4×3 matrix]
## 认购立场详细评分
[Step 8 rubric table + chosen action + one-sentence reason]
## 持仓管理建议
[Step 9: 核心仓 / 交易仓上限 + 阶梯止盈表 + 复评 trigger]
[disclaimer line]
Put time window and final stance at the very top so the user can decide whether to read further.
Anti-patterns
- ❌ Quoting招股价 from a single source without cross-check.
- ❌ Citing "global #1" without explaining the slice.
- ❌ Confusing Application Proof's
[編纂] placeholders with "no price disclosed".
- ❌ Ending with "建议关注" or other non-committal banker speak — the user explicitly wants a stance.
- ❌ Using pre-IPO investor entry valuations as "fair value" anchor — they are not.
- ❌ Assuming retail clawback ratios — confirm from the actual prospectus's clawback table.
- ❌ 机械按同业 PS/PE 估值，忽略主题进度条阶段（CRWV 教训）。
- ❌ 看到「同行高出几倍的单店模型」仍按老品类估值（老铺教训）。
- ❌ 客户集中度高 = 单向依赖（共生关系不算，CRWV 教训）。
- ❌ Pre-IPO 倒挂 = 一定看跌（弹簧效应可能反弹超调，Reddit 教训）。
- ❌ 给完立场就完结，不输出持仓管理 / 复评 trigger（错过反弹的根因）。
Additional resources
- Prospectus deep-read checklist + cornerstone scoring: see prospectus-checklist.md.
- HKEX disclosure URL patterns and probe commands: see hkex-urls.md.
- Worked case studies — see cases/README.md for the index. Pick one HK + one US example before first real run to calibrate depth, tone, and stance discipline.
