seo-content-drift

name	seo-content-drift
description	Content and translation drift detection: find pages decaying over time, machine-translation quality drift on i18n sites, staleness signals, and prioritize what to refresh. Methodology, thresholds, a 0-100 freshness score, and refresh cadence tied to Next.js + next-intl + hreflang. Use when content is going stale, traffic is decaying on old pages, translations drifted from source, deciding what to refresh, or planning a content-decay audit. Triggers on: content drift, content decay, stale content, translation drift, machine translation quality, i18n parity drift, refresh priority, content freshness, content rot, decaying pages, next-intl drift, hreflang parity.
version	1.0.0

Content & Translation Drift

Detect content that has decayed since publish, machine-translation that has drifted from its source, and turn the findings into a ranked refresh queue. Two failure modes, one discipline:

1. Content decay — a page that ranked and converted slowly loses relevance, traffic, and rank as the topic, competitors, or facts move on. The page didn't change; the world did.
2. Translation drift — localized variants fall out of sync with the source locale: stale facts, missing sections, untranslated fragments, or low machine-translation quality that tanks the localized variant while the source ranks fine.

This is an audit/analysis skill. It gives you the methodology, thresholds, a 0-100 score, and a falsifiability check — not a vendor product. Use your own crawler, analytics export, and Search Console data; the techniques are tool-agnostic.

Default stack: Next.js 15 (App Router, RSC) + next-intl, deployed on Coolify. Where freshness must surface in markup we generate it from next/metadata so it stays in sync with routing.

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Part 1 — Baseline, then diff against time

Drift is only measurable against a known-good snapshot. Capture a baseline per URL+locale, then re-measure on a cadence and diff. Persist snapshots (SQLite, JSON in the repo, or a CMS field) keyed on a normalized URL (lowercase host, strip default ports, sort query params, drop UTM, strip trailing slash) plus the locale.

Capture per snapshot:

Field	Why it matters
title, meta_description	CTR signal; drift here moves clicks before rank
h1, h2[]	Topic + section structure
word_count, body_text_hash (SHA-256)	Detects silent content edits / shrinkage
published_at, modified_at	Age and last-touch — the core staleness inputs
internal_links_out, internal_links_in	Decay correlates with losing internal links
outbound_links_alive	Dead external links are a decay smell
Search Console: clicks, impressions, avg position (28-day)	The ground truth for decay
schema[] / schema hash	Stale datePublished/dateModified, removed types

For i18n sites, snapshot every locale of the same logical page, not just the source. Drift is a per-locale property.

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Part 2 — Content decay signals & thresholds

No single metric proves decay. Score the evidence; a page is "decaying" when multiple signals agree. Thresholds below are starting points — calibrate to the site's own seasonality.

Signal	Threshold (decaying)	Leading vs lagging
Clicks trend (last 90d vs prior 90d)	Down ≥ 25%	Lagging
Impressions trend (90d vs prior)	Down ≥ 20%	Leading — impressions fall before clicks
Avg position trend	Worse by ≥ 3 positions	Leading
Content age since modified_at	> 365 days for YMYL/fast-moving; > 540d otherwise	Leading
Internal links in	Dropped vs baseline	Leading
Dead outbound links	≥ 1	Leading
SERP recency mismatch	Top-3 competitors updated < 90d ago, you > 365d	Leading
Body word count vs baseline	Shrank ≥ 15% (silent gutting)	Leading

Key insight: impressions and position regress before clicks do. Watch impressions as the early-warning indicator; by the time clicks crater you've already lost the quarter.

Freshness score (0-100)

Compute per URL+locale. Higher = healthier. Drives the refresh queue.

freshness = 100
  − min(40, clicks_drop_pct * 0.8)          # traffic loss, capped 40
  − min(20, impressions_drop_pct * 0.6)      # demand loss, capped 20
  − min(15, max(0, position_delta) * 3)      # rank slip, 3 pts per position, capped 15
  − age_penalty(modified_at)                 # 0 / 5 / 12 / 20 by age bucket
  − min(10, dead_outbound_links * 5)         # capped 10
  − (10 if body_shrank_15pct else 0)
  + min(10, internal_links_in_gained * 2)    # recovery credit, capped 10

age_penalty: 0 (<180d), 5 (180-365d), 12 (365-540d), 20 (>540d) for fast-moving topics; halve the buckets for evergreen reference content.

Bands: 80-100 healthy, 60-79 watch, 40-59 refresh soon, <40 refresh now / consider consolidate-or-prune.

Refresh prioritization

Don't refresh by score alone — refresh by opportunity = traffic potential × fixability.

priority = (impressions_90d / 1000) * (1 - freshness/100) * position_leverage

position_leverage is highest where a small rank gain yields outsized clicks: ~2.0 for avg position 4-10 (page-1 striking distance), ~1.0 for 11-20, ~0.4 for 21+. A page sitting at position 6 with high impressions and a low freshness score is the textbook refresh win; a page at position 45 with 30 impressions is a prune candidate, not a refresh.

Outcome buckets:

• Refresh — high impressions, page-1-adjacent, decayed. Update facts, expand thin sections, re-earn internal links, bump dateModified only when content genuinely changed.
• Consolidate — multiple thin pages competing for the same intent → merge + 301.
• Prune — near-zero traffic, no internal links, no strategic value → 410/redirect.

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Part 3 — Translation / i18n drift

On a next-intl site each locale is a separate page that can rot independently. Three drift types:

3a. Parity drift (source moved, locale didn't)

The source locale was edited; the translation still reflects the old version.

Signal	Threshold
Source modified_at newer than locale modified_at	> 30 days gap
Source word_count vs locale (length-ratio adjusted)	Diverged ≥ 20% beyond expected expansion
Section count: source h2[] count ≠ locale h2[] count	Any mismatch = missing/extra sections
Source has schema/CTA the locale lacks	Any

Expected length expansion (used to normalize the word-count check): EN→DE ≈ +20-35%, EN→FR/ES/IT ≈ +15-25%, EN→FI ≈ −10 to +10%. A locale far below its expected ratio is likely truncated or partially untranslated; far above with no source change can signal MT padding.

3b. Untranslated fragments

Detect source-language leakage inside a non-source locale: hardcoded English in a German page, a missing translation key falling back to source, mixed-script runs. Heuristics that work without a paid API:

• Per-block language-detect; flag blocks whose detected language ≠ the page locale above a coverage threshold (e.g., > 10% of body blocks off-locale).
• Scan rendered HTML for next-intl fallback markers / raw message keys (messages.about.title) that escaped to output — a sign of a missing key, not a translation.
• Compare the set of message keys per locale JSON; missing keys = guaranteed fallback leakage.

3c. Machine-translation quality drift

MT output that is grammatical but wrong, robotic, or off-brand drags the localized variant's engagement and rankings while the source is healthy. You can't fully grade MT mechanically, but these proxies catch the worst:

Proxy	Smell
Localized variant CTR ≪ source CTR at same position	Title/desc reads unnatural in-locale
Localized variant bounce/dwell far worse than source	Body reads like a bad machine
Repeated literal idioms / calques	Word-for-word MT, not localized
Brand terms / product names translated when they shouldn't be	No glossary / do-not-translate list
Number, date, currency, units not localized	MT translated text but not formats

For the qualitative read, sample affected blocks and have an LLM rate fluency/adequacy/terminology 1-5 against the source — but treat that as advisory, and confirm with a native reviewer before acting on B2B or YMYL content. The mechanical proxies above decide which pages get the human read.

Cross-reference

Parity and untranslated-fragment findings feed the seo-hreflang skill's content-parity check. If parity drift is severe, the hreflang set is technically valid but semantically lying about equivalence — fix the content, not the tags.

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Part 4 — Surfacing freshness in Next.js

Where freshness should be a ranking/markup signal, emit it from metadata and schema so it tracks the actual content, never a hardcoded "updated today" lie.

// app/[locale]/blog/[slug]/page.tsx
import type { Metadata } from "next";

export async function generateMetadata(
  { params }: { params: Promise<{ locale: string; slug: string }> }
): Promise<Metadata> {
  const { locale, slug } = await params;
  const post = await getPost(slug, locale);
  return {
    title: post.title,
    description: post.description,
    alternates: {
      // hreflang stays in sync with routing; only emit locales that actually exist
      languages: Object.fromEntries(
        post.availableLocales.map((l) => [l, `/${l}/blog/${slug}`])
      ),
    },
    openGraph: {
      type: "article",
      // Only set modifiedTime when content truly changed — never bump on a redeploy
      publishedTime: post.publishedAt,
      modifiedTime: post.modifiedAt,
    },
  };
}

// JSON-LD: dateModified must reflect real edits, not build time
function ArticleJsonLd({ post }: { post: Post }) {
  const json = {
    "@context": "https://schema.org",
    "@type": "Article",
    headline: post.title,
    inLanguage: post.locale,
    datePublished: post.publishedAt,
    dateModified: post.modifiedAt, // sourced from CMS, not new Date()
  };
  return (
    <script
      type="application/ld+json"
      dangerouslySetInnerHTML={{ __html: JSON.stringify(json) }}
    />
  );
}

Payload CMS pattern: keep a real modifiedAt updated only on content-bearing field changes (use a beforeChange hook that ignores layout/SEO-only edits), and store availableLocales per document so metadata never advertises a locale that 404s. Faking freshness (auto-stamping dateModified on every deploy) is an anti-pattern: it teaches crawlers to ignore the signal and can be treated as a manipulation pattern.

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Part 5 — Monitoring cadence

Site profile	Decay re-scan	Translation parity check
News / fast-moving / YMYL	Weekly	On every source publish + weekly
B2B SaaS / marketing	Monthly	On every source edit + monthly
Evergreen reference / docs	Quarterly	On source edit

Wire parity into CI: when a source-locale document is edited, flag every dependent locale whose modified_at now lags, and open a refresh task. Catching drift at edit time is far cheaper than discovering it in a quarterly traffic post-mortem.

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Falsifiability — how would we know this failed?

State the hypothesis before refreshing, then check it. A "refresh" with no measured lift is a guess, not a fix.

• Hypothesis: "This page decayed from staleness; a content refresh recovers rank/clicks."
• Leading indicator (2-4 weeks): impressions and average position recover toward baseline, before clicks move. If impressions stay flat post-refresh, the cause was not content staleness (suspect intent shift, SERP feature loss, or a technical/indexability issue) — stop refreshing and re-diagnose.
• Lagging confirmation (8-12 weeks): clicks return to within ~10% of baseline.
• Translation drift: after fixing parity / re-translating, the localized variant's CTR and dwell should converge toward the source variant at comparable positions. If they don't, the problem is demand or competition in that market, not translation quality.

Guardrail: only credit a refresh when dateModified reflects a real content change and the leading indicator moves. No movement after two cycles = wrong hypothesis, not "needs more time."

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Parts adapted from claude-seo (MIT, © 2026 agricidaniel).