Use this skill for requests that ask, explicitly or implicitly, “where is China in the cycle right now?” through a Zhou Jintao / 周金涛 lens. Invoke it when the user wants 周期定位 or 位置判断 rather than generic macro commentary: deciding whether current signals are 弱修复, 假底, 抢跑复苏, recovery prelude, or true new expansion; identifying the main driver, transmission chain, and risk boundary; or explaining the lead-lag sequence among 地产、货币/信用、库存、资本开支、行业轮动 and asset allocation. Prefer this when the user wants a China-specific sequencing framework, asks why improving data has not become a full recovery or new market cycle, or wants cautious “what to observe / what not to over-believe” analysis—not short-term market recap, persona imitation, or biography.
2026-04-06