portfolio-audit

name

portfolio-audit

description

Comprehensive portfolio risk audit. Computes single-name concentration, factor cluster exposure, leverage ETF decay risk, options Greeks aggregation, stress test scenarios (-10% SPX, yen carry, single-name miss), hedge effectiveness. Outputs explicit trim list with $ amounts and reasons + cash target. Triggers in English ("review my portfolio", "audit my book", "am I too concentrated", "what should I trim", "portfolio risk check") or Chinese ("审一下我的组合", "我组合风险大吗", "该减什么仓", "组合审计", "我哪里太集中").

Portfolio Audit — Full Risk Review

Goal

A fund-manager-level audit of the user's entire book. Answer 6 questions definitively:

1. Where is concentration risk? (single-name + factor cluster)
2. What blows up in -10% SPX day? (correlation unwind paths)
3. What's the true equity beta? (incl. leverage ETFs and options delta)
4. Where am I over-earning? (positions that have run too far)
5. What hedges should I add? (gap protection)
6. What trims should I execute today? (with $ amounts + tax considerations)

The 7-Step Workflow

Step 1 — Inventory the book

Get from user (or screenshot via review-investment-screenshot):

Stocks: ticker, qty, avg cost, current price, market value Options: ticker, strike, expiry, qty, cost, market value Cash + short-term: $ amount

Compute:

• Total equity value
• Cash %
• Stock %
• Options notional %
• Total leveraged exposure

Step 2 — Single-name concentration check

For each position, compute % of portfolio:

% of book	Status	Action
< 3%	OK	None
3-7%	Watching	Review thesis
7-10%	Limit	Don't add
10-15%	High	Trim to ≤10%
> 15%	EXTREME	Force trim to 10% (unless explicit conviction & long-term)

Exception: User-defined "core hold" with locked thesis (e.g., NOK 19% with 1Y target $20+) — note but don't force trim.

Step 3 — Factor cluster analysis

Group positions into factor clusters:

Standard clusters for 2026:

• AI Semis (NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MU, AMUU, MSFU等杠杆 ETF)
• AI Compute / Cloud (ORCL, CRWV, NBIS, IREN, APLD)
• AI Network (TEL, ANET, CIEN, FN, HPE, NOK)
• AI Power (CEG, VST, EQT, AEP, ETR, LEU)
• AI Materials (HBM, FCX, APD, MP)
• Crypto-adjacent (COIN, HOOD, MSTR)
• Speculative growth (AFRM, SOFI, U)
• Mega-tech (GOOGL, MSFT, META, AAPL, AMZN)
• China (BABA, JD, PDD, BIDU)
• Defense/Aerospace (LMT, CSTM)

Aggregation rule:

• Same factor cluster > 25% = one bet regardless of how many tickers
• Recommend trim or cross-cluster diversification

Step 4 — Leverage / volatility decay check

Flag any:

• Daily-reset 2x/3x ETFs (MSFU, AMUU, GDXU, SOXL, TQQQ, NVDL等)
• Held >2 weeks (vol decay accumulates)
• Up >20% (rotate to LEAPS for cleaner exposure)

Action: Most leverage ETFs should be closed and rotated to LEAPS on the underlying.

Step 5 — Options aggregation (Greeks-aware)

For each option position:

• Delta (estimate): ATM = 0.5, OTM 10% = 0.35, OTM 20% = 0.25, deep ITM = 0.85
• Notional exposure: contracts × 100 × strike (full notional)
• Delta-weighted exposure: notional × delta (true equity equivalence)
• Theta risk: short-dated (< 30 days) = high decay
• IV exposure: post-earnings IV crush risk

Aggregate by underlying: if user has 6 NVDA LEAPS + 350 stock + AMD LEAPS, what's the combined NVDA+AMD delta?

Step 6 — Stress test scenarios

For each scenario, compute estimated portfolio impact:

Scenario	What happens	Impact estimate
SPX -5%	Mild correction	Use beta × -5%
SPX -10%	Standard pullback	Beta × -10% + leverage ETF decay
NDX -15% (tech rotation)	Mag7/AI sells off	Heavy if cluster >30% AI
Yen carry unwind (USD/JPY <153)	-8 to -22% on AI semis	Compute by sector exposure
Single name -30% (e.g., NVDA earnings miss)	If concentrated	Show $ loss
VIX > 30 (volatility regime change)	Options IV crush + delta loss	Compute by options exposure
OPEC + 1973 重演	Energy spike + risk-off	Show defensive vs growth

Output: "In a -10% SPX day, your book loses ~$X (X% of total)."

Step 7 — Generate trim list + hedge recommendations

Trim list (specific orders):

Ticker	Qty	$ proceeds	Rule fired	Tax impact

Hedge recommendations:

Hedge	Cost	Coverage	Why
SPY 6/18 $XXX Put × N	$X,XXX	Index gap	Macro red signal
Underlying-specific puts			If single name 10%+

Cash target:

• Risk-on regime → 5-15% cash
• Late-cycle / yellow → 20-30%
• Yellow + binary events → 30-40%
• Red regime / crisis → 40-60%

Output format

# Portfolio Audit — [Date]

## TL;DR
- Total: $X.XX M (stocks + options + cash)
- Cash %: X% (target Y% based on macro)
- Top 3 risks: [concrete sentences]
- **Action today**: [trim X / hedge Y / hold Z]

## Position Table (top 25 by % of book)
| Ticker | Qty | Mkt Val | % of book | P&L $ | P&L % | Status | Action |

## Cluster Concentration
| Cluster | % of book | Status | Top names |
| AI Semis | XX% | 🔴 Over (>25%) | NVDA, AMD, AVGO |
| AI Power | XX% | 🟢 OK | EQT, CEG, AEP |

## Concentration Flags
- 🔴 Single-name > 15%: [list]
- 🔴 Cluster > 25%: [list]
- 🔴 Leverage ETF > 5%: [list]

## Greeks Aggregation
| Underlying | Stock notional | Options delta-weighted | Total | $ Risk |

## Stress Tests
| Scenario | Impact $ | Impact % |
| -10% SPX | -$XX,XXX | -X.X% |
| Yen carry unwind | -$XX,XXX | -X.X% |

## Trim List (orders to place today)
| Ticker | Qty | ~$ proceeds | Rule | Tax |

## Hedge Recommendations
| Hedge | Cost | Why |

## What's NOT to trim (core holds)
- [List positions to leave alone]

## Tax Considerations
- Proceeds from suggested trims: $X
- Estimated tax (LTCG/STCG mix): $X
- Net to bank: $X
- Better: hedge with puts on [list] to defer tax

## Recommended Cash Target
- Current: X%
- Target (based on macro): Y%
- Action: raise/lower by trimming/buying [list]

Hard rules (the trim ladder)

Run every position through this in order. Call the FIRST rule that fires:

#	Condition	Action
1	Daily-reset leveraged ETF held >2 weeks AND up >20%	Trim 50%+, rotate to LEAPS
2	Position up >100% unrealized	Sell at least 1/3 to recover cost basis
3	Position up >50% AND single-name >10% of book	Trim to ≤10%
4	Single factor cluster >25% of book	Reduce to ≤20% by trimming most-extended in cluster
5	At 1-year high AND earnings within 7 days	Trim 25-50% before print
6	Up >30% AND >40% above 200DMA (parabolic)	Trim 25% OR set hard stop at MA20
7	Portfolio total unrealized >20% AND macro = late-cycle euphoria	Reduce gross 10-15% via index hedge
8	Up >20% but thesis broken (below MA50 in downtrend OR narrative shift)	Exit 50%+ immediately
9	Underwater >15% AND bear case confirmed by price	Cut. Don't average
10	None of above	Hold. State trailing stop level

Macro contextual overlays

Adjust trim aggressiveness based on macro signals (run macro-risk-check first):

• Yen carry risk active (USD/JPY < 153): Reduce semi-cluster to <20%
• Pre-major central bank meeting: Cash target 30%+
• Pre-major geopolitical summit: Hold core thesis names for upside optionality
• Energy/oil supply shock active: Defensive + reduce growth allocation

Common pitfalls

Pitfall	Example	Lesson
Counting tickers as diversification	6 AI semis = "diversified"	One bet
Ignoring options notional	$50K LEAPS = $200K delta	Use Greeks
Trim winners, hold losers	Sell NVDA +20%, hold INTC -50%	Reverse — trim losers, ride winners (with stops)
Over-trim during stress	Sell 50% on -3% day	Wait for trigger or hedge instead
No tax plan	Sell 1000 NOK STCG vs LTCG	Lose 12-15% to tax
Hedge after the move	Buy puts after -10% drop	Should be pre-event, not reactive

Tool cheat-sheet

Need	Tool
Live prices for all positions	mcp__yfmcp__yfinance_get_ticker_info (batch) OR quote_pull.py
Sector classification	mcp__yfmcp__yfinance_get_ticker_info → sector field
Options Greeks	Estimate from strike/spot/days. Use mcp__yfmcp__yfinance_get_option_chain for IV
Insider check on top positions	insider_ratio.py "TICKER1,TICKER2,..." --window 90 (openinsider primary; only Form 4 code "P" counts as buy)
Macro overlay	Run macro-risk-check skill first
Tax math	Run tax-optimize skill on each trim candidate
Trim execution rules	This SKILL.md, the 10-rule ladder

When to invoke

• User asks: "Review my portfolio"
• User asks: "Am I too concentrated"
• User asks: "What should I trim"
• User asks: "Should I hedge"
• After macro-risk-check shows YELLOW or worse
• Monthly (recommended)
• Pre-major event (Fed, BOJ, Trump-Xi, earnings cluster)
• After any position becomes >15% of book (auto-trigger)

Companion skills

This skill orchestrates these others:

• macro-risk-check → regime context (run first)
• analyze-stock → deep dive on questionable positions
• tax-optimize → calculate trim taxes
• earnings-prep → for any position with earnings <30 days
• option-wall-analysis → set strike levels for hedges
• leaps-screen → for ETF→LEAPS rotation (Rule #1)
• review-investment-screenshot → if user provides screenshot input

Integration with existing review-investment-screenshot skill

portfolio-audit is the deeper sibling of review-investment-screenshot. Differences:

	review-investment-screenshot	portfolio-audit
Input	Screenshot	Manual list or screenshot
Depth	7-point check	7 steps + Greeks + clusters + tax
Output	Sell list	Sell list + hedges + cash target + stress tests
When	Quick review	Monthly deep dive
Audience	Single review	Full periodic audit