surplus-pulse

name	surplus-pulse
description	Daily compute-futures pulse anchored to the Surplus Intelligence inference market — runs the prototype sim against the live Surplus spot feed, reports the curve re-pricing, the live anchor, and the real Base/USDC x402 rail.
schedule	0 16 * * *
commits	true
permissions	["contents:write"]
tags	["ai","compute","x402","depin","markets"]

Today is ${today}. Read memory/MEMORY.md before starting. If soul/SOUL.md + soul/STYLE.md exist and are populated, read them to match the operator's voice for the notification; otherwise use a clear, direct, neutral tone — short sentences, no hedging.

Why this skill exists

Surplus Intelligence is an OpenAI-compatible inference marketplace that sells surplus capacity at market prices, with a real x402 settlement endpoint on Base (USDC). Our compute-futures prototype settles against inference compute priced in $/M-tokens, and the --surplus adapter (prototypes/compute-futures/src/surplus.mjs) anchors that spot to Surplus's real prices.

This skill is one clean daily read on that market: run the simulation against the live Surplus feed, and report how the futures curve re-prices around the day's supply/demand events, what the live spot anchor was, and the real x402 rail a physical settlement would run over. It is the live, scheduled counterpart to the deterministic prototype.

Sandbox note

The sim makes no network call from inside the sandbox. The live feed is fetched OUTSIDE the sandbox by scripts/prefetch-surplus.sh (run automatically before this skill), which caches Surplus prices to .surplus-cache/prices.json; the sim reads that cache when run with --live. Configure the repo secret SURPLUS_PRICING_URL (and optional SURPLUS_API_KEY) to point at a Surplus prices / OpenAI-compatible /models endpoint. If it is unset or unreachable, the sim transparently falls back to its built-in catalog — the run still succeeds (deterministic), just not "live". Always report which mode actually ran.

Steps

1. Load context

Read:

• memory/topics/projects.md — the compute-futures + Surplus integration status.
• memory/topics/surplus-pulse.md — prior runs (create with the seed below if missing).

# Surplus Pulse

*Last run: never*

## Run Log
- (append per-run summaries here: date · live|catalog · anchor $/M · top curve move)

2. Run the simulation against the live Surplus feed

Run the prototype with the Surplus venue, the live feed, and the x402 rail (so the proof shows the real settlement endpoint):

node prototypes/compute-futures/sim.mjs --surplus --live --x402

Capture the full stdout. Key lines to read out of it:

• The mode line [surplus] live anchor: <model> → $<price>/M (live feed used) or [surplus] live feed unavailable — using catalog (set SURPLUS_PRICING_URL) (catalog fallback). This tells you whether the run was genuinely live.
• The header spot source: surplus (<model>, live|catalog).
• The ── Curve re-pricing around each event ── section (the headline moves).
• The ── x402 physical settlement block, including the real rail: Surplus x402 … endpoint line.

If the command exits non-zero, log SURPLUS_PULSE_SIM_FAIL: <first line of stderr>, send no notification, and stop.

3. Update memory/topics/surplus-pulse.md

• Set *Last run: ${today}*.
• Append one line to Run Log:

  - ${today}: <live|catalog> · anchor $<price>/M (<model>) · top move <event> <±%> · x402 endpoint reachable proof recorded
  

4. Notify

Write the summary, then send it:

mkdir -p .pending-notify-temp
./notify -f .pending-notify-temp/surplus-pulse-${today}.md

Format — one short paragraph, match operator voice if soul files are populated:

surplus pulse — ${today}

spot: <live|catalog> · <model> @ $<anchor>/M (Surplus Intelligence)
curve: <biggest event re-price, e.g. "supply crunch +82% at R16">
rail: x402 on Base/USDC — <real endpoint named>

one-line read: <is the Surplus inference market loosening or tightening, per the run>

Keep it to one paragraph. Do not paste the full sim output into the notification.

Output

End with a ## Summary listing: whether the run was live or catalog, the spot anchor, the top curve move, files modified (memory/topics/surplus-pulse.md), and the notification status.