cost-estimation

name	cost-estimation
description	Use when constructing the Estimated cost ballpark section of a trip plan. Encodes bucket structure (flights+pass+lodging+food+extras), 2026 family-of-N anchors, and the re-verify-at-booking marker. Invoked by trip-planner.
type	reference

cost-estimation

A ballpark that gives the family enough information to decide go/no-go without pretending to be a quote. Always frame as "planning estimate, re-verify at booking."

The bucket structure

Always render as a Markdown table with bucket | per-person | family total columns. Don't skip buckets — visibility is the point.

| Bucket | Per person | Family of N |
|---|---:|---:|
| Flights / fuel | $X | $Y |
| Transit pass / car rental | $X | $Y |
| Scenic-train supplements / paid attractions | $X | $Y |
| Lodging — <base 1>, N nights | — | $Y |
| Lodging — <base 2>, N nights | — | $Y |
| Food | — | $Y |
| Local cable cars / tours / extras / tips | — | $Y |
| **Trip total** | — | **$lo – $hi** |

Why ranges, not point estimates

A point estimate ("$8,500") feels precise but is wrong. Always render as a range ($8,300 – $13,000) so the family understands the swing. Communicate which buckets drive the swing — usually flights and lodging-tier.

2026 family-of-4 anchors (re-verify at booking)

These are calibration anchors, not quotes. Use them to sanity-check estimates; always state "re-verify at booking."

International flights from IAH (round-trip, mid-range main cabin)

Destination	Per person	Family of 4
London / Paris (LHR / CDG)	$700 – $1,200	$2,800 – $4,800
Frankfurt / Zurich (FRA / ZRH)	$900 – $1,500	$3,600 – $6,000
Rome / Madrid	$850 – $1,400	$3,400 – $5,600
Tokyo (NRT / HND)	$1,200 – $1,900	$4,800 – $7,600
Reykjavík (KEF)	$700 – $1,100	$2,800 – $4,400
Cancún / Caribbean	$400 – $700	$1,600 – $2,800

Add ~30% in summer / Christmas / spring break.

Domestic flights from IAH (RT mid-range)

Destination	Per person	Family of 4
Denver / Phoenix / Salt Lake City	$250 – $450	$1,000 – $1,800
LA / SF / Seattle	$300 – $550	$1,200 – $2,200
Miami / Orlando	$200 – $400	$800 – $1,600
New York / Boston	$250 – $500	$1,000 – $2,000

Lodging (per-night, family room or 2BR)

Region	Mid-range	Notes
Switzerland	$300 – $700	Highest in Europe
Italy / France / Spain	$180 – $450	Cinque Terre / Paris highest
UK	$200 – $400	London highest
Japan	$150 – $400	Ryokan with meals separate tier
Iceland	$250 – $500	Reykjavík highest
US national park town	$200 – $450	In-park lodges 30% premium
US Gulf beach (Destin / 30A)	$250 – $600	Peak summer; off-season half
US mid-tier road trip	$130 – $250	Hampton / Holiday Inn Express
Cabin / Airbnb (US rural)	$150 – $350	Beavers Bend, Hocking Hills

Food (family of 4, per day)

Region	Cooking-mix	Restaurants-only
Switzerland / Norway / Iceland	$130 – $200	$250 – $400
France / Italy / Spain	$100 – $160	$180 – $300
UK / Germany	$90 – $150	$160 – $260
Japan	$80 – $140	$140 – $240
US (mid-tier)	$80 – $130	$130 – $220
Caribbean all-inclusive	included	—

Driving (US)

• Gasoline: 25 mpg car × $3.20/gal × distance ÷ 25 = fuel cost
• Tolls: variable; budget $30–$100 round-trip on east-coast / Texas trips
• Wear & tear: $0.20/mile is a planning rule of thumb
• Rental car (mid-size, 1 week): $400 – $700 + insurance + fuel

Rail passes

Pass	Adult cost (2026)	Notes
Swiss Travel Pass 8-day 2nd class	~$510	Kids < 16 free with Family Card
Swiss Travel Pass 6-day 2nd class	~$430
JR Pass 7-day	~$340	(post-2024 hike)
JR Pass 14-day	~$540
Eurail Global 7-day-in-1-month	~$510
BritRail 8-day	~$380

Notable extras

Item	Cost
Jungfraujoch (with 50% Swiss Travel Pass discount)	~$95/adult
Glacier Express seat reservation supplement	~$45/person
Antelope Canyon tour	~$120/person
Vatican Museums skip-line	~$45/person
Northern Lights Iceland tour	~$120/person
Disney Park 1-day ticket (peak)	~$170/person

The "swing factor" rule

When the range is wide, name what drives it. Example for #68:

Big swings come from flights (book early) and lodging tier. Switzerland is genuinely expensive — budget closer to the top of that range if traveling in school summer holidays.

This converts an opaque range into actionable intel.

Always include the re-verify marker

Every cost section must include this line (or equivalent), prominently, before the table:

Planning estimate only — re-verify everything at booking. Prices in USD, rounded.

This protects against quotation-creep where the family takes the number as a commitment.

Currency handling

For non-USD destinations:

• Quote in USD for the family's mental model (they're Houston-based)
• For flagship items (the big rail pass, the headline experience), parenthetically include the local currency for booking-page reference: ~$510 (CHF 460 / 8-day 2nd class)
• Note the currency in the watch-outs section: "Switzerland uses CHF, not Euros."

What to deliberately leave out

• Travel insurance — varies wildly; mention as a checklist item
• Souvenirs — unbounded
• Specific restaurant prices — too volatile
• Cellular roaming — depends on carrier plan
• Lost-luggage / weather contingency — by definition unpredictable

State explicitly that these are not in the estimate so the family doesn't expect the budget to cover them.

Reference

• #41 Beavers Bend: mid-tier US cabin trip; total ~$1,500 – $2,500 family of 4 for 4 nights
• #68 Switzerland: family-of-4, 7 days, $8,300 – $13,000 range; flights and lodging swing-factors named explicitly