burry-asymmetric-contrarian

name	burry-asymmetric-contrarian
description	Use when evaluating Michael Burry-style contrarian, asymmetric, unpopular trades: deep mispricing, short theses, complex assets, forced consensus errors, and catalyst-driven downside/upside.
invest	./invest.md

Burry Asymmetric Contrarian

Use this skill to apply Michael Burry-style contrarian research: read primary sources, find a non-consensus mispricing, define the exact mechanism that makes the market wrong, and structure a trade with large asymmetry and explicit time/carry risk.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

• Contrarian long or short analysis
• Complex asset mispricing
• Bubble, fraud, credit, mortgage, or capital-structure review
• A Burry-style short thesis or deep-value thesis
• Whether a hated or ignored asset has asymmetric payoff

Trigger phrases include Burry, Big Short, contrarian, asymmetric, bubble, short thesis, credit default, deep value, and unpopular trade.

Process

1. Define consensus and why it may be wrong.
2. Verify with primary documents, not summaries.
3. Identify the exact mispricing mechanism.
4. Define catalyst, time horizon, carry cost, and path risk.
5. Size small enough to survive being early.
6. Exit if facts invalidate the mechanism, not because the trade is unpopular.

Output Format

# Burry View: [Asset]

## Verdict
Asymmetric Long / Asymmetric Short / Watch / Too Early / Pass

## Consensus Belief
## Variant Perception
## Primary Evidence
## Trade Structure
## Catalyst And Timing
## Carry / Path Risk
## Invalidation

Guardrails

• Do not be contrarian for its own sake.
• Do not ignore borrow, carry, margin, or timing risk.
• Do not use secondhand summaries when primary docs exist.
• Do not size so large that being early becomes fatal.

Questflow Use

In Questflow, this skill is best used as a contrarian asymmetry module for deep research, shorts, complex assets, and Fund risk reviews.