counterfactual-reasoning

name	counterfactual-reasoning
description	Tactic for reasoning about what would happen if variables were different — supports causal identification and intervention analysis.
execution	tactic
dependencies	{"sops":["causal-chain-query","confidence-scoring","contradiction-flagging"]}

Counterfactual Reasoning

Reason about what would happen if a variable were different. "If X had not occurred, would Y still have happened?" This is the gold standard for causal identification.

Available SOPs

• causal-chain-query — trace causal paths to identify dependencies
• contradiction-flagging — flag when counterfactual contradicts observed evidence
• confidence-scoring — assess confidence in counterfactual conclusions

Guiding Principles

• Minimal change. Counterfactuals should change only the target variable, holding all else constant.
• Mechanism required. A counterfactual without a mechanism is speculation, not reasoning.
• Multiple paths. If Y can be caused by X through multiple paths, removing X may not remove Y.
• Temporal ordering. Causes precede effects. Counterfactuals that violate temporal order are invalid.

Minimum Yield

≥1 counterfactual assessment with explicit mechanism and confidence score per invocation.

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
causal-chain-query	SOP for tracing causal chains — follow edges from cause to effect through intermediate variables.
confidence-scoring	SOP for assigning calibrated confidence scores to causal claims based on evidence quality and quantity.
contradiction-flagging	SOP for flagging contradictions in the causal model — identify conflicting evidence or mechanism claims.