hypothesis-formation-saturation-detection

name	hypothesis-formation-saturation-detection
description	Shared SOP: judge whether the current activity has reached information saturation
version	1.0.0
category	hypothesis-formation
type	sop
shared	true
campaigns	["gap-prioritization","hypothesis-formulation","research-question"]
input	Cumulative output of the current activity + the most recent round's increment
output	Saturated/not-saturated verdict + rationale
dependencies	{"skills":["subagent-spawning"]}

Saturation Detection

Judge whether the current activity has reached information saturation — decide whether to keep iterating.

HARD-GATE

Input must contain: output from at least 2 iteration rounds (the increment needs to be compared).

Pipeline

1. Precondition check: is there enough iteration data to compare
2. Increment analysis: what the most recent round added compared to the previous one
3. Novelty judgment: whether the added content provides genuinely new information
4. Convergence detection: whether the increment is decreasing
5. Saturation verdict: saturated / not saturated
6. Output: verdict + rationale + recommendation

Saturation Criteria

Saturated (should stop iterating):

• The most recent round produced no new substantive information
• The added content is mostly restatement or minor tweaks of what is already known
• The increment contributes < 5% to the final output

Not saturated (should keep iterating):

• The most recent round produced a new dimension/perspective/information
• The increment makes a substantive contribution to the final output
• There are known but unexplored directions

Output Format

Judgment: SATURATED / NOT_SATURATED
Confidence: HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW
Rationale: [one-sentence rationale]
Last round increment: [what the most recent round added]
Recommendation: STOP / CONTINUE (with direction)