Wallet evaluation, monitoring, and copy-trade strategy design for Solana DEX trading
Wallet evaluation, monitoring, and copy-trade strategy design for Solana DEX trading
npx skills add https://github.com/agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills --skill copy-trading이 명령을 Claude Code에 복사하여 붙여넣어 스킬을 설치하세요
Event-driven backtesting with bar-by-bar execution, complex order types, multiple analyzers, and custom indicators
Solana token market data via Birdeye — prices, OHLCV, trades, token metadata, security checks, and trader activity
Broad crypto market data from CoinGecko covering 13,000+ tokens. Global market stats, historical price data going back years, exchange volumes, trending tokens, and category filters. Best for macro analysis and long-term historical data.
Cointegration testing for pairs trading using Engle-Granger, Johansen, and rolling stability analysis
Cross-asset correlation analysis including rolling correlation, hierarchical clustering, tail dependence, and regime-dependent correlation
Multi-method cost basis computation including specific identification, FIFO, LIFO, HIFO, and proportional average cost with partial sell handling
| name | copy-trading |
| description | Wallet evaluation, monitoring, and copy-trade strategy design for Solana DEX trading |
Wallet evaluation, monitoring, and copy-trade strategy design for Solana DEX trading. Identify profitable wallets on-chain, evaluate whether their edge is real and replicable, monitor their activity in real time, and execute proportionally-sized trades with independent risk controls.
Copy trading is the practice of monitoring one or more wallets that have demonstrated consistent profitability and replicating their trades in your own wallet. On Solana, every DEX swap is publicly visible on-chain within seconds, making it technically feasible to detect and follow any wallet's activity.
| Dimension | TradFi (eToro, etc.) | Solana On-Chain |
|---|---|---|
| Data source | Platform-reported P&L | Verifiable on-chain transactions |
| Latency | Minutes to hours | Seconds (websocket) to sub-second (gRPC) |
| Front-running risk | Low | High (MEV bots, sandwich attacks) |
| Trade cost | Commissions + spread | Gas + slippage + priority fees |
| Capacity | High (large-cap equities) | Low (micro-cap tokens have thin liquidity) |
| Signal decay | Slow | Fast (PumpFun tokens move in minutes) |
| Transparency | Partial (delayed reporting) | Full (every transaction is public) |
The core tradeoff: Solana provides perfect transparency but introduces execution risk. The wallet you copy got a price that no longer exists by the time you trade.
Find wallets with strong track records. Sources include:
GET /top-traders/{token} returns the highest-PnL wallets for any tokentoken-holder-analysis on a token that performed well, then profile the top holdersSee references/wallet_discovery.md for detailed source documentation and scoring methodology.
Every discovered wallet must pass quantitative evaluation before it enters a copy list. Use the wallet-profiling skill for deep behavioral analysis, then apply copy-trade-specific criteria.
Minimum thresholds:
| Metric | Minimum | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Trade count (30d) | >= 50 | Statistical significance |
| Win rate | >= 55% | Edge above random |
| Profit factor | >= 1.5 | Wins meaningfully exceed losses |
| Last active | Within 7 days | Still trading, not abandoned |
| Distinct tokens traded | >= 10 | Not a one-token wonder |
| Max single-trade % of total PnL | < 40% | Not reliant on one lucky hit |
| Bot probability | < 30% | Human-like timing patterns |
Run scripts/evaluate_wallet.py for a comprehensive copy-trade suitability assessment.
After evaluation, apply additional filters:
sybil-detection skill to verify the wallet is not part of a wash-trading clusterOnce a wallet passes evaluation and filtering, set up real-time monitoring.
Monitoring approaches (fastest to simplest):
getSignaturesForAddress every 5-10 seconds — simple but slowerSee references/execution_strategy.md for implementation details on each approach.
When a monitored wallet executes a swap:
Copy trades require independent risk controls that do not depend on the copied wallet's behavior.
See references/risk_framework.md for the complete framework.
Key limits:
| Control | Recommended Value | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Max allocation per wallet | 10-20% of portfolio | Diversification across signal sources |
| Max concurrent copy positions | 3-5 | Prevent overexposure |
| Per-trade stop loss | -15% to -25% | Independent downside protection |
| Daily copy-trade loss limit | -5% of portfolio | Circuit breaker |
| Weekly copy-trade loss limit | -10% of portfolio | Longer-term circuit breaker |
Composite score from 0-100 based on weighted criteria:
copy_score = (
trade_count_score * 0.15 +
win_rate_score * 0.20 +
profit_factor_score * 0.25 +
consistency_score * 0.20 +
recency_score * 0.10 +
human_probability_score * 0.10
)
Component calculations:
min(trade_count / 200, 1.0) * 100 — maxes out at 200 tradesmax((win_rate - 0.40) / 0.30, 0) * 100 — scaled from 40% to 70%min((pf - 1.0) / 3.0, 1.0) * 100 — scaled from 1.0 to 4.0(1.0 - std_dev_of_rolling_win_rate) * 100 — lower variance = higher scoremax(1.0 - days_since_last_trade / 14, 0) * 100 — decays over 14 days(1.0 - bot_probability) * 100Interpretation:
| Score | Rating | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 80-100 | Excellent | Strong copy-trade candidate |
| 60-79 | Good | Suitable with monitoring |
| 40-59 | Marginal | Proceed with caution, reduce allocation |
| 0-39 | Poor | Do not copy |
Three approaches, from simplest to most nuanced:
Use a constant SOL amount per copy trade (e.g., 0.5 SOL). Simple but ignores the wallet's conviction level.
Match the copied wallet's allocation as a percentage of their estimated portfolio:
your_size = (their_trade_size / their_estimated_portfolio) * your_portfolio
Requires estimating their total portfolio, which can be imprecise.
Base amount multiplied by your confidence in the wallet:
your_size = base_amount * (copy_score / 100) * conviction_multiplier
Where conviction_multiplier is higher for wallets with longer track records.
Bots have sub-second execution and often use MEV strategies. You cannot match their latency. By the time you detect their trade, the opportunity is gone or you become the exit liquidity. Use the bot probability score to filter these out.
A wallet with 1000% returns from one PumpFun token is not necessarily skilled. Look for wallets with consistent performance across many tokens, not outlier wins. The max-single-trade-PnL filter catches this.
Never copy a trade without understanding what the token is. At minimum, run basic safety checks: liquidity depth, holder concentration, contract verification. A 2-second check can prevent buying a honeypot.
The copied wallet may have information you do not have. They may exit for reasons unrelated to the trade. Always maintain your own stop loss. Never rely solely on mirroring their exit.
If you copy 5 wallets and they all buy the same token, you have 5x the intended exposure. Track aggregate position across all copy sources and enforce portfolio-level limits.
A wallet profiting on tokens with $50K daily volume cannot be copied at scale. If your trade is 10% of daily volume, you will move the price against yourself.
| Skill | How It Integrates |
|---|---|
wallet-profiling | Deep behavioral analysis of candidate wallets |
sybil-detection | Verify wallet is not part of a wash-trading ring |
token-holder-analysis | Safety check tokens before copying a buy |
liquidity-analysis | Verify sufficient liquidity to enter/exit |
helius-api | WebSocket monitoring and transaction parsing |
jupiter-api / jupiter-swap | Trade execution via aggregator |
slippage-modeling | Estimate execution cost of the copy trade |
position-sizing | Portfolio-aware sizing for copy positions |
risk-management | Portfolio-level risk controls |
references/wallet_discovery.md — Sources and methods for finding copy-trade candidatesreferences/execution_strategy.md — Monitoring infrastructure and execution approachesreferences/risk_framework.md — Portfolio-level risk controls for copy tradingscripts/evaluate_wallet.py — Comprehensive copy-trade suitability scoring for a walletscripts/monitor_wallet.py — Real-time wallet transaction monitoring with trade alerts